Bill and Hillary Clinton are many things, but they’re not stupid.
They’ve both been around campaigns and politics a long time. They know how the game works. They know the rules. And they both know the odds of Hillary winning the nomination at this point are virtually nil.
Despite her win in Pennsylvania and the apparent influx of cash into their coffers as a result, Hillary can see the writing on the wall. She knows North Carolina is a lost cause, and an expected Obama win there will erase the modest gains she received from the Keystone State. Indiana is no sure thing, and even a slight win there won’t move the metrics.
So what can Hillary do?
Aside from making up ridiculous claims about winning the popular vote (by including states where Obama never campaigned) and claiming Obama runs weaker against John McCain in the general election (despite no clear evidence that’s the case), she really can’t do anything.
She knows those arguments are absurd. She's too smart for that. With the odds stakced heavily against her, all she can really do now is try her best to stop the bleeding.
As has been repeated ad nauseam, this race is now a game of superdelegates. They’ve been breaking in Obama’s favor ever since Super Tuesday. Even since her "game changing" performance in Pennsylvania, there appears to be no tidal wave of supers coming her way. In fact, more have endorsed Obama since Tuesday.
Marc Ambinder reported today that Hillary has been meeting with undeclared superdelegates in Washington DC over the past two days:
Sen. Hillary Clinton, in Washington for Senate business, is in intense discussions, right now, with uncommitted superdelegates in a conference room at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Clinton held similar meetings last night.
I don't believe Hillary is making a serious pitch to these supers for their support. Most have probably made up their minds. The best that she can hope for is that they remain silent, that they don't become part of the drip-drip we've been wintessing over the last weeks. Let the people decide, she's telling them. No need to get involved yet.
As evidence, consider the story out today that Evan Bayh is stepping in to convince supers in Indiana to hold off on their endorsements:
With his state's critical primary in two short weeks, Democratic Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh -- a strong supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- has been leaning on the Hoosier State's freshman House members to stay on the sidelines rather than endorse Sen. Barack Obama.
. . . . .
In an interview today, Bayh said he has appealed to Ellsworth, Hill and Donnolly to stay out of the race until their voters have spoken. Clinton will take all three of their districts, he said.
"Why should they get crosswise with some of their friends if they really don't need to?" asked Bayh, perhaps the most powerful elected Democrat in the state.
Never mind the hypocrisy of that statement, given that Bayh endorsed Clinton back in September 2007, long before the first vote was cast in Iowa. Bayh’s argument concedes the fact that these supers are committed to Obama. He just wants them to sit on their hands a bit longer.
Hillary’s strategy is clear. If she had a large stash of supers in her back pocket, they would have already endorsed by now. Her goal is not to win new supers (although that would be nice). Her real goal is to keep the supers she already has from defecting and convince the rest of them to drag their feet in endorsing Obama.
I suspect there are very few undecided supers at this point. Most are just considering when they will publicly declare for Obama. Hillary’s knows this, and is trying to convince the supers to stay on the sidelines long enough for her to make her final argument – and hope, in the meantime, Obama does something to self destruct.
Knowing she can’t turn the faucet tight enough to avoid the drip-drip, Hillary's trying her best to keep the floodgates from swinging completely open. And waiting for something, anything, to happen that might change things in her favor.
She's got her finger in the dike, and she knows it's only a matter of time before it bursts.