A few months ago, there was a spreadsheet circulating that had been created by the Obama campaign. It showed their estimated delegate pulls from each of the remaining races, including a guess on the final popular vote. The sheet has been mentioned around here more than a few times because of remarkable accuracy, especially considering its early February leak date. With Indiana in sight, however, we may see the sheet's first significant error.
First, a link to a blog post about the spreadsheet, including a picture of it for reference:
Newsday Blog Post w/Image
So, looking at the Indiana prediction, the Obama camp was expecting a 7% win from the Hoosiers on May 6th. Recent polls have the race deadlocked, except for SUSA who's calling for a more PA-like margin. Granted, this was all before Wright and Bittergate, but going from +7 to -anything is a significant swing.
What was it that made Obama'a people confident enough to put Indiana in the win category? As far as the state demographics indicate, there's a smaller gap between male and female Dems, a smaller percentage of AAs, and a slightly younger population than PA. Two of those three are generally good news for Obama.
What has changed? Is this going to be a state lost by Obama because on racial polarization in the vote? Or do his numbers hold, only slightly hurt, and he pulls off an IN+NC sweep next Tuesday?