The North Carolina primary is the last primary of the 2008 season to assign over 100 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. It also represents an opportunity for Obama to make up the net delegates lost to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and a chance to make up a good portion of the 200,000 net votes lost to Clinton last Tuesday. While I know that "Scott in NJ" already posted his prediction of the congressional district breakdown of delegates, I wanted to look at it a little differently.
First, I wanted to see where each candidate may be able to pick up ground depending on the turnout of different demographic groups. We all know by now that Obama's key demographics have been African Americans, which he has been getting at a 90% - 10% clip, younger voters, regardless of gender, and men. Clinton's key demographics have women, mostly over 50, men or women over 65, and those that make under $50,000 a year. Also, I wanted to look at each district from a regional, educational and political philosophy perspective and who that may help or hurt.
While the racial demographics are important since Obama is winning African American voters by such a wide margin (9 to 1), there is also a difference in how much each candidate gets percentage wise depending on whether the area is urban/suburban or rural, whether there is a large percentage of college educated voters, or whether the district has more conservative, moderate or liberal leanings. For example, if you forecast that Obama will get 40% of the white vote, that doesn't mean it will be 40% in each district. In the Appalachian 11th district, he may only get 25% of the white vote, while in the Triangle area (4th district), he may get a clear majority of white votes. In addition, we know that Clinton does well with women, seniors and lower income voters. We can easily look at census data for those districts and see which have higher percentages of seniors, what the median income is and then determine if this helps one candidate more than the other. This is especially helpful in heavily Republican districts where Democratic turnout will be much less and no Democratic official will have a large organization/machine to help either of the presidential candidates.
First, some voting background on North Carolina. The party breakdown is roughly 2.5 million registered Democrats, just under 2 million registered Republicans and about 1.1 million Independents. That's about 3.5 million potential voters in the May 6th primary since both Democrats and Independents can vote in the Democratic primary. With voter turnout in Pennsylvania over 50% (2.2 million), North Carolina could have as many as 1.7 million Democratic primary voters on May 6th. Even if there are only 1.5 million votes in the primary, Obama could make up the 200,000 vote disadvantage from Pennsylvania by winning North Carolina 57% - 43%. While that would be a big win, it is a very plausible scenario. The pollster.com polling average for North Carolina currently has an Obama lead of about 15% although the latest polls seem to show a tightening to around a 8-10 point lead. The question is will the gap continue to narrow or is this the low point for Obama now.
Looking more specifically at the demographics in North Carolina, about 37% of registered North Carolina democrats are African American where Obama is pulling about 90% of those voters in the most recent primaries. It also contains several large cities and large universities that will help Obama as well. In Clinton's favor, the other 63% of the registered Democrats tilt to the more conservative variety. Also, the western part of the state encompasses portions of Appalachia, albeit a much smaller area than Pennsylvania had, which has given Clinton her largest majorities up to now. Many thanks to Betsy Muse at bluenc.com for her demographic breakdowns of each congressional district. This helped immensely in my research. See the link right below for maps and short descriptions of each congressional district.
North Carolina Congressional Districts
1st District - G.K. Butterfield (D) - This district encompasses the northeast corner of North Carolina and is primarily rural. The median income is relatively low at just over $28,000. This would normally favor Clinton, but 63% of the Democrats in this district are African Americans and Butterfield has already endorsed Obama. This should be an easy win for Obama here. Since this district has 6 delegates and a 4-2 split only requires 58.3% of the vote, Obama should get at least this split. A 5-1 split would require 75% of the vote and he would need about 70% of the vote to come from African Americans with them giving him 90% of their vote and over 40% of the white vote. If only 60% of the vote was from African Americans, he would need a majority of the white vote to reach 75%. Possible but not probable.
Prediction: Obama 4-2 with an outside shot at 5-1.
2nd District - Bob Etheridge (D) - This district takes in a portion of Raleigh and some of its suburbs but most of the area is rural. The population is about evenly divided between urban and rural. Its median income of $36,000 is more than the 1st district, but the percentage of Democrats that are African American is less (49%). Cong. Etheridge had endorsed Edwards but subsequently has not endorsed either Obama or Clinton. The Cook partisan voting index for this district is R+3, so the white Democratic vote is pretty conservative. With the large African American population, Obama should win the majority of votes here, but in order to get the 4-2 split, he will need either a huge black turnout or close to 45% of the predominantly conservative white vote. The big key will be the white turnout in and around Raleigh as that is the only area of the district where whites will be less conservative than the district as a whole.
Prediction: 3-3 split with a chance of an Obama 4-2 split
3rd District - Walter Jones (R) - This eastern Carolina district pretty much hugs most of the Atlantic coast of North Carolina. It has a PVI of R+15 and gave Bush 68% of the vote in 2004 even though it does have more registered Democrats than Republicans. If you see any Limbaugh effect, you should definitely see it here. African Americans make up 29% of the registered Democrats, below the state average and less than either district 1 or 2, and the rest of the Democrats in this district are very conservative. The median income is about $37,000, about average for North Carolina. Due to the very conservative bent of most of the registered Democrats and the lower percentage of African Americans, this is a district that Clinton should win. If only 25% of the Democratic primary voters are African American, then Obama would need over 40% of the white vote to win the district and over 55% of the white vote to gain a 3-1 split. On the other hand, all Clinton needs is about 60% of the white vote to win this district but over 75% of the white vote to get a 3-1 split. Either way, I don't think either one can get anything other than an even split of delegates.
Prediction: 2-2 split
4th District - David Price (D) - This district encompasses much of the Triangle Corridor (Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill). This includes the college campuses of Duke and the University of North Carolina. It is over 80% urban and has the second highest median income (over $53,000) of all the North Carolina congressional districts. This along with the 12th district are the most liberal congressional districts in North Carolina. In this congressional district, Obama should do much better in every demographic even in Clinton's strength. Due to its large urban component, the percentage of registered Democrats who are African American is at 34%. The 4th district offers the most delegates of any North Carolina congressional district with 9 delegates. Obama should receive over 60% of the vote here and may get over 70%. To break the 72.2% barrier to bet a 7-2 split, he must get over 60% of the white vote and over 40% of the vote must come from African Americans.
Prediction: Obama 6-3 with an outside shot at 7-2
5th District - Virginia Foxx (R) - This district stretches from the outskirts of Winston Salem through northwest North Carolina to the Tennessee and Virginia borders. Apart from the suburbs of Winston Salem, the district is rural. Much of the district emcompasses the Blue Ridge mountains which was pro-Clinton country in the similar S.W. Virginia and eastern Tennessee regions. Appalachian State University is in this district. If you're a Michigan football fan, you'll should remember that school. It also has the town of Mt. Airy, which, for those of us old enough to remember, the TV show Mayberry, RFD was based on. Only 7% of the population is African American and only 15% of registered Democrats are African American. This district has the smallest percentage of blacks beside the 11th (5%). This is a definite Clinton district with this and the 11th giving her the best shot at a wide margin of victory. 70% is needed for a 4-1 delegate split. The median income of $39,000 is not as bad as you'd expect for a district that takes in a large part of Appalachian country. The portion of Winston Salem in this district is a well healed section and make skew this measure somewhat. In order for Obama to keep this a 3-2 delegate split, he will need over 25% of the White vote. He'll need a good turnout from Appalachian State students to make that happen.
Prediction: Clinton 3-2, but I wouldn't be surprised by 4-1
6th District - Howard Coble (R) - This central North Carolina district takes in all of the Greensboro suburbs, the towns of High Point, Asheboro and, for golf buffs, Pinehurst and Southern Pines. It has the highest difference in favor of Republicans in voter registration of any congressional district in North Carolina, nearly 60,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. This district gave Bush his largest vote percentage in the state (69%). This district is evenly divided between urban and rural although the urban character is distinctly suburban. The median income is over $43,000. 21% of Democrats are African American, well below the state average. This is a district where the demographics definitely favor Clinton although, she shouldn't come close to the 70% needed for a 4-1 split. She'd need about 80% of the vote from whites to get that split and he'd need nearly 45% of the white vote to win the district. Neither seem very probable at this point.
Prediction: Clinton 3-2
7th District - Mike McIntyre (D) - This southeastern district is slightly more rural than urban, but it does contain two good sized cities, Wilmington and Fayetteville. Even with more registered Democrats than Republicans the partisan index for this district is slightly Republican (R+3). McIntyre is your quintessential Blue Dog Democrat and probably one of the most conservative Democrats in the North Carolina delegation. There are many different groups that are not normally seen in many North Carolina districts here. A portion of Fort Bragg is in this district and therefore there is a sizable active duty and military veteran bloc of voters here. Also, this district contains the largest percentage of Native Americans east of the Mississippi River. Each should help Clinton slightly. The percentage of American Americans registered as Democrats is the same as the 4th District (34%), but with its general conservative bent, don't expect a huge win here for Obama. He'll probably need about 33% of the non-African American vote to win the district, but would need over 45% to get the 58.5% needed for a 4-2 split.
Prediction: 3-3 split with Obama winning the majority of the vote
8th District - Robin Hayes (R) - This south central North Carolina district featured the very close Congressional race in 2006 between Larry Kissell and Robin Hayes. The two will go head to head in November and because of the the race in 2006 and this year, Democrats in this district are pretty energized. Democrats far outpace Republicans in registration here. Kissell backed Edwards early on, but he has not endorsed either Obama or Clinton at this point. 45% of the the Democrats in this district are African Americans many of which are concentrated in the cities on either end of this district, Charlotte and Fayetteville. Beyond these urban bookends, much of the 8th is rural and was heavily concentrated in textile manufacturing. Many of those jobs have gone and NAFTA is a four letter word here. With the large African American community in the district, this should give Obama a comfortable win, but Fort Bragg and its generally rural, conservative makeup should temper that advantage. For a 4-1 split, Obama would have to carry a majority of the white vote to get to the 70% total.
Prediction: Obama 3-2
9th District - Sue Myrick (R) - This district is in and around Charlotte. It is a urban/suburban district. The areas in Charlotte and its suburbs are primarily white, Republican and upper income. The median income is over $55,000, the highest of any congressional district in North Carolina. Republicans hold a 34% registration advantage and its partisan index (R+12) reflect that. About 27% of Democrats are African Americans in this district and the with much of the district being urban/suburban, Obama should do well enough with the more educated, higher income whites to possibly pull out a victory here. He'll need at least 40% of the white vote to win and about 50% to get enough for a 4-2 split. She'll need at least 65% of the white vote to win and over 75% to get a 4-2 split. This should be a very close race and as long as the statewide difference is under 10 percent, it will probably go to Clinton. I don't see either of them, however, getting enough to get a 4-2 split
Prediction: 3-3 split
10th District - Patrick McHenry (R) - This western North Carolina district stretches from the Charlotte suburbs to the Blue Ridge mountains. It is another district where Republicans outnumber Democrats but only slightly so, yet it's partisan index of R+15 notes that many of the Democrats are conservative. Even though population wise, it is evenly divided between urban and rural, the vast majority of the area is rural. Excluding the Charlotte suburbs in the district, the largest town is Hickory (37,000). The 10th has the largest percentage of blue collar workers of any district in North Carolina and only 18% of Democrats are African American, both of which favor Clinton. Even so, Obama would have to receive about 20% or less of the white vote to swing this to a 4-1 split for Clinton. The suburban Charlotte vote for Obama should help him stay well above that number.
Prediction: Clinton 3-2
11th District - Heath Shuler (D) - This district is based in the Smoky Mountain region of southwestern North Carolina. While the area is an Appalachian district and only 7% of Democrats are African American, the much more liberal town of Asheville predominates the voting in the district. The 11th has the highest median age and the smallest black population of any North Carolina district, both bad signs for Obama. Obama will need a huge vote in Asheville to even get this under a 20 point loss. This district will probably give Clinton her largest margin of victory, but I don't see her getting over 80% of the white vote that she would need to get 75% for a 5-1 split. Also, Obama would need about 45% of the white vote here to make this a 3-3 split. I'd say the former scenario is a little more probable than the latter, but either way, this looks like a solid 4-2 split for Clinton.
Prediction: Clinton 4-2
12th District - Mel Watt (D) - The 12th is the exact polar opposite of the 11th district. It is young, urban and primarily African American. It is a narrow slip of a district which runs from Charlotte in the south to Greensboro and Winston Salem in the north. Nearly 70% of the Democrats are African American and Rep. Watt has already endorsed Obama. Like the 11th which will go heavily for Clinton, the 12th will be an Obama landslide. A 6-1 delegate split here would require at least 78.6% of the vote. A 60-40 split of the white vote would do it for Obama and I wouldn't be totally shocked if he was able to pull this off.
Prediction: Obama 5-2 with a possibility of 6-1
13th District - Brad Miller (D) - This is another primarily urban district which goes from Raleigh to the northwest all the way to the Virginia border. Like the 11th, it has a fairly young population and over 40% of the Democrats are African American. This district has a slight Democratic lean (D+2) and nearly twice as many registered Democrats to Republicans. Like the 2nd district, most white voters in this district are conservative. This 7 delegate district will need to give Obama a majority of the white vote for him to get a 5-2 split, but the relative large African American population should give him a fairly comfortable win here.
Prediction Obama 4-3
If these predictions were correct, Obama would get a 42-35 split of congressional district delegates. For the statewide vote, an 4-8 point win would give him a 14-12 at-large split and a 6-6 split of the PLEOs. If he gets at least 54.2% of the vote, the PLEOs will split 7-5 and if he gets as much as 56% of the vote the at-large split will go to 15-11. Looking at the polls right now, I'd have to guess he will get a 14-12 and 7-5 split of the statewide pledged delegates, making the total delegate breakdown of Obama 63 to Clinton 52. If it turns out to be roughly a 55-45 win for Obama with about 1.6 million votes cast, he'd have a 875,000 to 725,000 victory. While not making up all the popular vote difference that Clinton gained from Pennsylvania, it would deeply cut into it.