I am a native Puerto Rican, having grown up on the island. I also know the differences between Puerto Ricans on the mainland and Puerto Ricans on the island, having done community organizing work in the mainland Puerto Rican community in both New York and New Haven. From 2003 to 2004, I worked as National Adviser on Hispanic and Latino Issues for General Wesley Clark. As I have seen a lot of diaries posted with questions about the Puerto Rico primary, so in this diary I will try to provide helpful information that enables you to navigate the complex issues that characterize our island.
First, some background. Puerto Rico is a US Commonwealth, and has been since 1952. Puerto Ricans are US citizens, as a result of the Jones Act of 1917. As they say, "no taxation without representation." The commonwealth is essentially a territorial status where Puerto Ricans don't pay federal taxes and don't vote for President in the general election. However, the party system has always guaranteed participation for territories in national primaries, and as such, Puerto Ricans participate -- often in caucuses -- to determine delegates to be seated at the convention. Given our extraordinarily large population for such a small territory (approx 4 million people in an area no larger than Connecticut), we have a fairly sizable number of delegates.
There are three political parties on the island: The New Progressive Party (NPP, which was originally the Republican Party until 1968 but has had two Democratic Governors emerge from its ranks since the 1980s), which advocates statehood. Then there is the Popular Democratic Party (PDP), which dominated Puerto Rican politics from 1952 to 1968, where "Democratic" does not imply Democrat as in the US, though it has traditionally been associated with the Democratic Party. Finally, there is the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP). In gubernatorial elections, the votes are generally split in half 48/48 by the NPP and the PDP with the PIP capturing more or less the remainder. Since each party is associated with a color (NPP = blue, PDP = red, and PIP = green), we call melons all those independence voters who cross party lines and vote for the PDP sporadically.
The Nuevo Dia poll (the most widely read newspaper on the island) a couple of months ago had Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama with a wide margin, I believe, 53-37. The pundits in the media seem to have taken this poll to mean that Hillary is likely to win in a landslide. Of course, Hillary has more name recognition. Obama is less well-known. But such an assessment based on the assumption that Hillary usually wins the Latino vote is overly simplistic. First, the Nuevo Dia poll is notoriously wrong in their predictions. It's really not their fault. It is very difficult to poll the wealthy and the poor in Puerto Rico, so it's hard to get a representative sample.
Second, the media is ignoring the role that the local parties play. The Obama campaign made the decision early on to align their political fortunes with the pro-commonwealth PDP (yes, a change candidate favoring the territorial status quo!), which forced the pro-statehood NPP to align itself to the Clinton camp. Further complicating matters (and something that the Obama strategists did not consider in their decision) is that the PDP has two factions -- one faction wants Puerto Rico to become an associated republic (approx 33% of the PDP), and the other faction wants Puerto Rico to remain where it is or pursue some kind of enhanced commonwealth status (which would give Puerto Rico all the rights of statehood with all the rights of independence). As an aside, as Congressman Patrick Kennedy said on the floor of the House, if Puerto Rico ever gets such a status, all the other states will immediately demand it too!
As you can see, politics in Puerto Rico is a complex matter that revolves around the status issue. But you do the math: you immediately see the mistake the Obama campaign made in Puerto Rico. They pursued the pro-commonwealth PDP faction (32% of the vote) and neglected the other 68% of the vote. Of course, independence supporters don't vote in island parties as they don't believe they are legitimate, so you can subtract 4% from the 68%.
It all comes down to status. And who has the better plan? Please note that among my strengths in politics is Puerto Rico. I single handedly wrote the Puerto Rico Policy Statement for General Wesley Clark, which built a broad coalition of statehooders and commonwealth and independence supporters. The result was that, according to the polls, we had the support of 60% of Puerto Rican voters on the mainland and nearly 70% on the island versus Kerry, who was our nearest competitor at 20%. Given that I was supporting Obama in February, I shared my advice on how to proceed with Obama campaign strategists and operatives. I was very disappointed when they aligned themselves with the pro-commonwealth PDP forces, instead of seeking a broader coalition. Here are some excerpts of my letter analyzing Obama's position:
I am writing to express my profound disappointment and extreme displeasure with the decision of the Obama campaign to align itself with Anibal Acevedo Vila, the current Governor of Puerto Rico, particularly because I have warned the campaign repeatedly of the risks during the last couple of weeks. If the Obama campaign continues this course, it will find itself losing the Puerto Rico primaries. But there is still time to fix what has been done.
After reading the letter that Barack Obama sent to the Governor of Puerto Rico, please allow me to outline the ways in which the decision to align the Obama campaign with the current Governor is a strategic mistake:
* Governor Acevedo Vila is under federal investigation. I find it amazing that the Obama campaign told me that they were worried about the criminal records of Latin Grammy winners who were considering endorsing the campaign, yet now the campaign has decided to accept the endorsement of the current Governor who is under federal investigation for violating numerous FEC regulations by accepting illegal campaign contributions. In fact, the Governor was even the subject of an FBI raid! It goes without saying that to align a candidate of change with someone like the current Governor is a major contradiction of the campaign message. A quick search on google will confirm this information. Just to summarize a few of the allegations:
o The filing of professional conduct charges in the Federal Court for the District of Puerto Rico, which ended with a written reprimand against Governor Acevedo, who stated he would not pursue the matter further because he felt the charges were politically motivated and the judges biased.
o Governor Acevedo purchased $40,000 worth of expensive Italian suits for his use in television appearances, among other activities, but the Governor failed to report the gift on his tax returns.
o A Philadelphia healthcare contractor is claimed to have used a number of names to make illegal campaign contributions to the campaigns of several politicians, including Acevedo Vila's, during the 2000 political campaign, allegedly to ensure the granting of government contracts. This has been the subject of several subpoenas from federal investigators.
o A Federal Grand Jury is investigating donations made to the Acevedo Vila campaign fund during 2001 and 2002 by the aforementioned contractor and a Puerto Rico based associate. News sources indicate the donations made by the duo to the Acevedo Vila campaign fund during that period, could total $68,000. Since last summer, several key members of Acevedo Vilá's Cabinet have been either interviewed by the FBI or called to testify before the Grand Jury investigating the Governor.
* Governor Acevedo Vila is extremely unpopular on the island. El Nuevo Día -- the top newspaper on the island -- has shown a consistent decline for him in poll numbers from 2004 to present. As a result, the Governor has been encouraging anti-American sentiment on the island to increase his popularity, which he expressed in a recent letter to the Secretary of State of the United Statess, Ms. Condoleza Rice.
* Governor Acevedo Vila is a major Republican donor. I am sure that part of the deal that the Governor has proposed to Senator Obama is to bring money to the campaign coffers. This is the modus operandi of the Governor. But a quick review of his previous contributions will show that he has no loyalty to any particular political party, and in fact, the Governor gives money to candidates who will push his interests forward at the expense of that of the majority of the voters on the island.
You are probably wondering how the Governor´s support will hurt Senator Obama. What Senator Obama has done is the equivalent of picking up the George W. Bush endorsement to try to win the presidency. Please allow me to explain further below:
* The Governor´s endorsement will produce no support among commonwealthers, despite what the Governor may have led you to believe. Currently, the polls suggest an 80% to 20% lead by Clinton over Obama. This means that most of the commonwealth party is already with Clinton, which suggests that the Governor´s endorsement of Obama is simply a symbolic effort to prevent the approximately 55% statehood and independence supporting population of the island from moving forward on the status issue.
* The Governor´s endorsement has guaranteed that the Obama campaign has now alienated 55% of the electorate. This means that there is no way that Obama can now obtain the support of statehood and independence supporters on the island, an important sector that enabled us to build the broad based coalition for General Clark in 2004. The Governor is a divisive figure (think George W. Bush) and is hated by this sector of the electorate.
The Senator´s letter also contains a series of commitments that are strategic blunders. Should Senator Obama become the democratic nominee, the language in the letter will almost guarantee that he will be unable to carry the Puerto Rican vote in the general election. Most important, the language rolls back the status issue to the pre-Clinton years! For a purportedly progressive candidate of change, this is inconsistent. I outline the strategic errors below:
* Senator Obama wrote: "Puerto Rico´s status must be based on the principle of self-determination... that may include a constitutional convention..." This is factually incorrect from a constitutional law point of view. Puerto Rico cannot achieve self-determination because the status issue can only be resolved by the US Congress. Committing to this enables Governor Acevedo Vila to argue that he has the right to hold a constitutional convention on the island to change Puerto Rico´s status in a unilateral fashion. Not only is this misleading and factually incorrect, but also is something that is opposed by the 55% of the electorate that supports statehood or independence but also by an additional 20% of commonwealthers who favor free association.
* Senator Obama wrote: "My administration will adhere to a policy of strict neutralitty on Puerto Rico status matters." This is basically saying that Senator Obama will not push the status issue forward. Again, this will alienate approximately 75% of the electorate, even though it will allow Governor Acevedo Vila to present this position as a legitimation of the current territorial status of the island.
* Senator Obama wrote: "My administration will recognize all valid options to resolve the question of Puerto Rico´s status, including commonwealth..." The commonwealth status CANNOT be a viable option because time and time again the US Congress during the Clinton and both Bush Administrations have stated that the status is territorial. According to both the United Nations and the US Congress, the only legitimate status options are statehood, free association and independence.
In short, Senator Obama´s letter of support has practically guaranteed that Hillary Clinton will be the winner of the Puerto Rico primaries and take the 63 delegates.
It is no surprise that since that time, Obama has distanced himself from the Governor who was arrested on corruption charges and perjury (e.g., not using him as a surrogate in Latino districts) and by discussing the status issue vaguely and focusing on domestic issues instead.
Of course, what complicates matters in the Puerto Rico primary is turnout. Many Puerto Ricans are not aware of the primaries (e.g., my family had no idea until I called them and told them so yesterday, and they indicated that none of their neighbors knew about it either), so turnout is likely to be low. Remember, this is the first time (that I can remember) that Puerto Rico is holding a primary. It usually is a caucus, so voters are not as aware of their opportunity to participate in the presidential nomination process.
This means that only the most ardent supporters of both parties are likely to be mobilized to the polls. Given that the pro-commonwealth PDP supporters still outnumber the pro-statehood NPP supporters in the local Democratic Party, one can expect that Obama will have the edge if the result is a party-centered campaign. The labor unions will play a pivotal role in this effort, and they tend to favor the PDP on this count. What puts this in doubt, however, is that many PDP supporters are demoralized after the Governor's arrest and may not turnout in strong numbers.
However, if it becomes a candidate-centered campaign, Clinton's chances are greatly improved for several reasons:
- She has done an extraordinary job of addressing the needs of Puerto Ricans both on the mainland and the island as US Senator from New York
- She is identified as having brought much needed relief to the island after the devastating hurricane of 1998
- After 8 years of a Clinton administration, she is simply more well-known
- If the voters come out and vote on the status issue, Obama will face the disadvantage discussed above (a 60%+ coalition united against his less than 40% of the vote)
Unlike in other places, the key for Obama will be keeping voter turnout low. If voter turnout is low, you will get less pro-Clinton supporters, while the PDP will be able to use its considerable strength to GOTV. If voter turnout is high, you can probably expect to see Hillary win by +4 or +5 points. One thing that is always true about Puerto Rico elections is that the electoral margin always becomes smaller the closer you get to election day. So I doubt the pundits will see the wide margin of victory they expect Hillary to have on the enchanted island. This should be good news for Obama for then he should be able to beat expectations.
One unknown factor in all this is race and media expenditures. Obama is planning to spend $2 million on media on the island. This is a considerable amount given the cheap rates for ad buys on the local television stations. As far as I know, Hillary has no intention to spend anywhere near those amounts on the island. The racial factor could also be important. Puerto Ricans, especially in the age of reggaeton music, see themselves as the result of a confluence of African, Taino and White ancestry. A friend of mine from Puerto Rico who is a blue eyed blonde would often get upset when people would tell him: "You don't look Puerto Rican!" And in response, he would go into an in depth discussion of his Black and Taino heritage. If Obama is able to tap into this sentiment, penetrate the reggaeton culture, show that he can have fun dancing during our electoral caravans, he may be able to show that he is in touch with this important component of our identity and culture and thus do better than expected.
In the end, the Puerto Rico primary will be a dress rehearsal for the gubernatorial election in November. So both the PDP and the NPP have a strong incentive to mobilize their supporters to vote for their respective presidential candidates.
PS To get a sense of the caravans, please see the following youtube videos:
http://www.youtube.com/...
As Chris Matthews says, it's retail politics at its best:
http://www.youtube.com/...
I would enjoy hearing your thoughts and comments! :-)
Yosem