In her recent diary, CindyMax asked the question Can Indiana Primary be Swayed by Republicans? The likely answer is "Very much," to the extent that Pazuzu's projection of a 12-point Clinton lead over Barack Obama is probably pretty close to the mark, if not underestimating Clinton's victory margin.
CindyMax is 100% correct in calling out Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels for his smirking remarks on NPR (at about the 3:40 mark of the clip), as follows:
Ms. Norris commented on the smile on Governor Daniels' face when she raised the issue. His response, "Hey, some of 'em just want to have some fun . . ." "Hey, indulge us just a little bit . . . "
Governor Daniels' remarks and attitude demonstrate utter disdain and lack of respect for our electoral system. Granted, our system is flawed on many levels, but Governor Daniels' flip remarks indicate that it's good sport to exacerbate those flaws. His remarks are a disgrace to his office.
As irresponsible as Governor Daniel's remarks were in endorsing the "fun" of manipulating the opposition party's vote at the expense of the integrity of the voting process that one of his subordinates - Secretary of State Rokita - oversees, they are unfortunately similar to suggestions made here before Michigan's January 15 primary regarding "fun" to be had by Democrats meddling in that state's Republican Primary.
... With a history of meddling in our primaries, why don't we try and return the favor. Next Tuesday, January 15th, Michigan will hold its primary. Michigan Democrats should vote for Mitt Romney, because if Mitt wins, Democrats win. ...
... Now here's the thing -- without a real Democratic contest on the ballot, and a lack of party registration in Michigan, this is an open primary. Anyone can pick up a Republican ballot. So Michigan Democrats and independents who want to see the Republican battle royale continue should just take a few minutes on Tuesday, January 15th to cast a ballot for Mitt Romney in the Republican primary.
If you know someone in Michigan, send them the email I've included below the fold. If you don't know someone in Michigan, send the email to your liberal friends and see if THEY have friends in Michigan. Get the word out, whether by blog, mailing list, MySpace or Facebook page, or whatever. ...
Such exhortations to game the political system that come from a founder/publisher of a partisan political blog do not rise anywhere near the level of irresponsibility of similar comments and tone coming from an elected official charged with ultimate responsibility for the fairness and honesty of elections in his state. Nevertheless, it is now much more difficult to argue that what the Republicans are doing in Indiana - likely on a much broader scale and with much greater potential political effect than what little the Democrats did in Michigan - is wrong.
A Hillary Clinton victory in Indiana by a margin greater than 10% engendered by a significant Republican crossover vote easily could be misconstrued as further erosion of support for Obama. For example, let's assume a 55%-45% ratio of Republicans to Democrats in Indiana under normal political circumstances and further assume that Clinton and Obama split the votes of "normally" Democratic voters equally, 22.5%-22.5% of total Indiana voters.
Now, let's say a net 10% of the Republicans (or 5.5% of total Indiana voters) cross over and vote for Clinton, which I think is a realistic minimum possibility given the coordination of this effort and makeup of the Indiana electorate. We now have 28% of the total voters pulling the lever for Clinton vs. 22.5% for Obama, which converts to - Voila! - Pazuzu's magic 56%-44% margin among Democratic Primary voters. As already noted, a crossover percentage greater than 10% of Republicans cannot be ruled out.
And Republican crossover voting for Clinton is clearly being coordinated. The email I received from my Republican friend who suggests that I vote for Clinton starts:
Please see attachment also:
Remember to vote early and often this Tues. May 6 in Indiana - Oh that's right you need an ID - Dah!
Republican strategy is to vote for Clinton to keep the fun show going.
There's that word "fun" again!
The rest of the email is a three-part compilation of inanity about which I won't go into great detail here, but is similar in its "man-on-the-street" style to the emails I discussed in a diary about a year-and-a-half ago regarding the ubiquitous Republican propaganda machine and its extensive and effective use of emails such as this.
The first part of the email essentially lays all of our economic ills to voting in the Democratic Congress in 2006. (Orwellian quote: "Remember, it's Congress that makes law not the President. He has to work with what's handed to him.") The second part puts the "Democrats will raise our taxes" fear card into play by inaccurately and deceptively comparing federal income taxes paid in 1999 vs. 2008 at various income levels. (Orwellian quote: "This is like the movie The Sting with Paul Newman; you scam somebody out of some money and they don't even know what happened.") The third part returns to the theme of the previous diary to argue the mind-numbing, racist absurdity that "illegal aliens" (their term - again and again, not mine) cost us more than the Iraq War each year. (Very Orwellian quote: "Are we that stupid?")
The email also had two attachments, one of which was a sickening paean to President Bush by Paul Johnson at Forbes.com - click on "Please see attachment also" in the dialogue box above. I'm not fond of invoking Hitler, but couldn't you just substitute his name for Bush in the last several paragraphs in Johnson's piece and make the same arguments in blind support of his actions and policies?
Apologies for getting somewhat sidetracked from the point of the diary, but the right-wing authoritarian followers ability to believe this nonsense never ceases to amaze and alarm. This blind, lockstep allegiance of many Republicans is also what will enable Clinton to win by at least 10% and maybe as much as 20% today in Indiana while more-or-less splitting the vote of true Democrats with Obama. Any margin less than 10% in Indiana would be a major victory for Obama, imo.