We have all come to the realization that there will be at least two more weeks worth of contests.
The solo date of West Virginia on May 13th, and the duel of Kentucky v Oregon.
While the outcome of these contests is almost certain to not effect who the eventual nominee is, there is a chance that how Obama campaigns in these states can effect some swing state prospects for November.
The details of how follow
Let us start with the West Virginia contest. The latest update at poblano/538 is that West Virginia isn't a swing state for Obama, not by ANY definition.
So how does the WV contest have a potential impact on the November election?
Due to a few neighboring metro areas that have some limited viewership/readership in WV, but are in NEIGHBORING states. Obama currently has the Primary Cash on Hand that he can do these buys in possible swing states to get the bleedover into West Virginia, but also to start to help the healing process within the party, also expanding his message in Swing states.
My first thought is Pittsurgh, which for Major League Baseball's purposes encompasses the Northern sliver of WV. The Washington Nationals have coverage in the Eastern Portion, and Cincinatti in the West. Cleveland also gets the Central. Advertising buys targeting the typical West Virginian voter would also connect among the fans of these teams on their regional TV/radio networks. This would help solidify the message in Ohio and Pennsylvania's section of Appalachia, where even a single point in these regions in November could be of help. Currently poblano (previously linked) has OH at - 1.6 for Obama v McCain, Pennsylvania is Obama + 1.1 and Virginia at - 4.7. Laying the groundwork towards this recovery of unity is vital and capturing the beer drinking, baseball watching vote is a great way to get that heal going. Sure, it isn't perfect, but advertising buys on these regional sports networks also help slow the bleeding and the media narrative from the loss in West Virginia.
Let's move to Kentucky on the 20th. Similar theories in place. Cincinatti makes a TON of sense here as well, but even more so as Lexington is a shadow market of Cincinatti in the radio and TV biz, particularly so for sports. Another great buy would be for the Saint Louis Cardinals, everyone knows that Missouri is a swing state. We also know that Obama won it, but did you know that he struggles there in the GE at this time? He's down 8.3% in poblano's model again. More media messaging there to accept the heal and unity would be amazing and with that kind of defecit needs to happen sooner rather than later.
Lastly is Oregon. The only team to target is the Seattle Mariners, but guess what? Many a few of the Seattle Mariners TV and/or radio network stations that are picked up in OR (Obama leads in the GE here by 6.9, and in WA by 9.1) are also picked up in Idaho. Now Barack's campaign brilliantly mobilized the Democrats of Idaho for their caucus, but with the surprisingly strong chances that Democrats have due to Larry Craig this state can swing despite its current low number at 538 of -19.4. Even getting small acceptance of the Democratic Party's message in Idaho helps down ticket and helps the future administration with a possible Senate seat.
Obama has primary cash to spend, we all know this, but how he spends it will matter. What he can do is use regional networks (sports or otherwise) to help him in several states where the "white working class" narrative is most accurtate while competing in the upcoming states. Using these millions for dual purposes of cutting into the Clinton lead in WV/KY while also further familiarity with his message in the working class metro areas and their exburbs in Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Cleveland, StLoius, Lexington, Louisville, Boise, Harrisbugh VA, Roanoke and others could make even a tiny impact in a few swing/swingable states with a total Electoral Value of 69. This isn't a tactic that most campaigns should even attempt, but one that is flush with cash while being the almost certain nominee for the Party can afford the risk.
The advertising would have to be built around the very rural American pasttime of baseball. It isn't his favorite sport certainly, but the messaging and appeal towards the community aspect of small town ball can likely be crafted.