At long last, it seems like the end is in sight. Clinton finally fell prey to her own expectations game. After weeks of hammering Obama from all sides, he not only won, he won big, and he did it against all expectations and against all odds.
But if we've learned one thing, it's that Hillary Clinton is nothing if not tenacious, determined, and hungry for the Presidency. Others have analyzed her possible attempts to take this all the way to the convention in August, a desperate last resort that may yet happen. But what if that's not the worst that can happen?
Let's talk about "scorched earth."
The idea has been floated in the past that Hillary is so determined to win the nomination (and ultimately the Presidency) that she would consider sabatoging the Dem nominee in order to throw this election to McCain, giving herself a shot in '12. I have always been hesitant to believe this, and I still don't believe it. But just for fun, let's consider a scenario where she might pull this off.
Tonight's vote can easily be perceived as a referendum on her campaign. After these results, there isn't any way she could fight this out to the convention and still actually win the Presidency. She'd have to alienate so much of her own party that she'd never stand a chance. One way or another, she'll have to concede that she won't be the Democratic nominee.
Now briefly cast your memory back to Lieberman's '06 primary against Ned Lamont. I'm sure you're all familiar with the details, and so the comparison - while obviously strained - should be fairly obvious: a candidate, well connected within the party, loses a primary challenge to a young, inspiring up and comer with the support of the so-called "activist wing" of the party (that's us). The establishment candidate goes on to mount an independant run to the center, casting the opponent as an upstart tool of the partisan activists and inexperienced, besides.
It's not much of a stretch to see Hillary Clinton embarking on the same path.
So - again, just for fun - let's lay out her strategy here.
First - don't be gracious in defeat. Continue her attacks as long as possible. Play the victim when she's finally forced out - her supporters are already building this framework (read Taylor Marsh sometime for an example of this).
Second - announce her independant bid, taking Joe Lieberman or Michael Bloomberg as running mate. Bill herself as the real "change" candidate, painting a picture of the "third way" party for middle America.
Third - contrast her recent conversion to populism with her "tough stands" on national security to build her image as the "best of both worlds" candidate.
Fourth - let the November election happen. All of those Hillary supporters who say they'll vote for McCain before voting for Obama probably won't actually do it... but if they have the chance to vote for Hillary in the general election, they might just go for that. Results? McCain wins as Hillary splits the Democratic vote enough to cost Obama the victory.
Four years later, it all starts again. Obama's already ruled out another run, and the Democratic party rarely picks losers from general elections past for another try anyway; Hillary has four years to build back her base within the Democratic party, plus offering her new "independant" base, whether it persists or not; and McCain has four more years to screw up the nation that much worse, making ANY alternative look that much better.
Plausible? Not very. Possible? Very remotely. Scary? Certainly. Once again, the above was done purely as a thought experiment and I sincerely doubt it's ever likely to come about, just having a bit of fun with the idea. But cross your fingers anyway... you never know what the Clinton campaign will throw when they've run out of kitchen sinks.