This is my first diary. I realize that much of the community today is deeply shocked by O's turn to the center for the campaign, and even more shocked by the New York Times brazen outing of Gov. Crist as a Greek-American. So I thought this Saturday evening would be a good time to turn back to that favorite Kos sport- VP Speculation. But there's a twist: I've come to strongly feel that the best VP is not someone we want to lead the party in eight years but a placeholder VP now so the best of the new crop of leaders can rise to the top as our leader in eight years and we don't get locked into someone we chose now.
The history of sitting vice-presidents who run for president is so dismal it amounts to a curse of sorts. In recent history we think of George H.W.Bush but quickly forget Gore, Mondale, Humphrey, and Nixon. Choosing the presumptive presidential nominee eight years ahead is simply bad strategy. Eight years ago who would have thought of O? Eight years from now who's to say our best nominee is even someone thought of now? (Patrick Murphy who's on anyone's short list for 2016 isn't even old enough to be VP yet!)
BACKGROUND
For much of its existence, the office of Vice President was seen as little more than a minor position and in fact the natural stepping -stone to the presidency was long thought to be the office of Secretary of State. John Adams, the first vice president, described it as "the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived." Thomas R. Marshall, the 28th Vice President, lamented: "Once there were two brothers. One went away to sea; the other was elected vice president. And nothing was heard of either of them again." When the Whig Party was looking for a vice president on Zachary Taylor's ticket, they approached Daniel Webster, who said of the offer "I do not intend to be buried until I am dead." John Nance Garner, who served as vice president from 1933 to 1941 under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, famously remarked that the Vice Presidency wasn't "worth a pitcher of warm piss," although reporters allegedly changed the last word to "spit" for print.
Since the modern method of electing presidents and vice-presidents was started 200 years ago only two sitting vice presidents have been elected straight to the Oval Office — Martin Van Buren in 1836 and George H. W. Bush in 1988. That's 152 years apart. The others all became president because the president died or resigned. (exception:Nixon was defeated for the presidency as a sitting vice-president but was eventually elected after leaving the public stage for a while).
THE MONDALE EXPERIENCE
Jimmy Carter is a great man. Unfortunately his presidency was at the worst time economically and internationally for the US and he was blamed. But by 1984 the public had grown weary of Ronald Reagan, Gary Hart was the fresh face of the new Democracy and polls showed him defeating Reagan. He won many primaries but as Carter's VP Mondale was able to eventually secure the nomination. Mondale went on to lose 49 states. Sorry Gary, the presidential nomination was already spoken for years earlier.
PRESENT SITUATION
The Democratic party has an embarrassment of riches in fresh faces. Even if our best candidate for 2016 is already on the scene, who's to say for certain whether it will be Claire McCaskill, Tim Kaine, or any of a dozen other VP contenders (and again-what about Patrick Murphy). The most honest appraisal we can make now is that we do not know who the best Democratic candidate for president will be in 2016.
THE FUTURE PROBLEM
One reason that few sitting vice-presidents win the White House although many try, is that someone often comes up as a challenger. Then, whether the VP gets the nomination or loses the result is the same- a split party with divisions that just do not heal. No Democrat should be put in the position of having to wrest the nomination from a sitting VP.
AN OLDER PLACEHOLDER VP
Wikipedia defines a "placeholder" as:
* In computer science placeholders are sometimes referred to as metasyntactic variables.
* In politics, a placeholder is sometimes used to indicate that a person is acting in a position on a non-permanent basis or as a proxy.
So placeholders are an established tradition in politics.
And now I have my first diary and you have something to ponder on a Saturday night other than the impact of Charlie Crist being a Greek-American.