How many ways can Obama win (with the minimum amount of electoral votes?) Bored after church on a Sunday afternoon, I set out to find out.
A little background: this scenario assumes the 2004 Bush vs. Kerry election results as the baseline for McCain vs. Obama, plus Iowa. Likely swing states determined by electoral-vote.com polling data.
Scenario #1: Ohio- 279-259
2006 was kind to Democrats in Ohio. It's a tossup, but if Obama wins the state, he wins the election.
#2: Florida- 286- 252
McCain was strong here, but his recent support for offshore drilling may have hurt him, according to Taegan Goddard.
#3: Georgia- 274-264
Georgia was one of Obama's strongest Super Tuesday states, while McCain didn't win it. Nevertheless, John Kerry lost the state by almost 500,000 votes in 2004. What's the strategy here? Well, it turns out that about 460,000 registered African Americans didn't vote in 2004. In addition, there are an estimated 500,000 unregistered African American voters that the Obama campaign is trying to recruit and register.
In addition to nearly a million extra potential African-American voters, Libertarian Bob Barr is a former Republican congressman from Georgia. Georgia's Republicans are concentrated in the northern part of the state, Atlanta, which also happens to be the only media market in the country where Bob Barr is getting any coverage. Polls have shown him getting as much as 4 percent of the vote.
#4: Virginia- 272-266
Virginia was the first state to elect a black governor (although P.B.S. Pinchback of Louisiana was the first non-elected one, for you trivia buffs.) Recently, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and this year Mark Warner again will have won statewide office in the formerly super-Republican state.
#5: North Carolina- 274-264
This one seems to me a longer shot, but it has recently polled as a toss-up state and part of the state is in the Atlanta media market, giving Bob Barr some siphoning ability.
#6: Indiana- 270-268
Recent polls have shown it close, and Obama is airing ads. It also helps that he is a Senator from the midwest.
#7: Colorado + Alaska- 271-267
Obama has held small leads in Colorado for months. Alaska is competitive because of the Bob Barr effect, but why have polls there shown him getting 8% of the vote? I have two guesses: the first is a bit of trivia. Alaska has the highest population of Quakers, historic anti-war Christians who may be conservative but against the war, thus voting Libertarian. The other is the debacle of Ted Stevens, which may have soured the Alaskan public on Republicans.
#8: Colorado + New Mexico- 273-265
Colorado will host the Democratic Convention, perhaps increasing Obama's chances. New Mexico has been very, very close in the last two elections, but early support from Bill Richardson may pay off.
#9: Colorado + Nebraska- 270-268
If Obama wins Colorado, and two of Nebraska's five split electors, he wins. He drew a crowd of 10,000 to Omaha earlier in the year, where polls showed him leading in that CD. GOP Senator Chuck Hagel has recently said that he would be willing to accept a job in the Obama administration, and could help him win another CD.
#10: Colorado + Nevada- 273-265
Nevada is usually close, though it has trended Republican. But the Senate majority leader is from there.
#11: Nevada + New Mexico + Omaha, Nebraska- 270-268
Nevada and New Mexico each have five electoral votes, Omaha one.
#12: Nevada + New Mexico + Alaska- 272-266
Assumes strong Bob Barr performance in traditional Libertarian areas.
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So there you have it: there are TWELVE ways that Obama can win the very MINIMUM amount of electoral votes needed to win, a much brighter outlook than four years ago. Mississippi is also currently in range, though it remains to be seen how recruiting efforts go there. Keep in mind that although Obama could simply compete in one of these scenarios, he is going to be competing in ALL of them, making the likelihood of President Obama even stronger.