In her non-concession speech, Hillary Clinton referenced her 18 million supporters, those who voted for her in the primaries. Tom Brokaw, speaking on MSNBC, said that the Democrats need those voters and that she is using them as "leverage." But are they really there?
To accept this premise, you would have to assume that these voters would all only vote for her in the fall, and none would vote for Obama. Reasons this may not be the case:
- Some portion of them are dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. They voted for Dukakis, for God's sake. Anyone with the mantle of "Democratic nominee" gets their support, because they just can't do it any other way.
- Obama, once he realized he was mathematically going to take the nod, basically stopped his primary campaign. He cleared the field for Clinton to go into states and really work the voters. This made perfect sense from a financial standpoint, since he could save that money for the rest of the summer, while McCain is wallowing in political poverty. This group of people didn't really vote against Obama: they voted for Clinton, but once they actually see Obama (when he campaigns in their state in the General election cycle), then some portion will rally to him.
- Clinton's presence on the ticket as a VP might draw her most ardent supporters to vote for Obama. But it will also draw her most ardent detractors, who would normally blow off voting for McCain, yet would be rabid, maniacal, about voting against Clinton. The increase in these otherwise apathetic Republican and Independent voters would counter a large number of her followers (indeed, might surpass them).
- Some of her supporters might actually come to appreciate Obama as a candidate. I know, today that might not seem possible (at least if you listen to CNN/MSNBC/Fox--okay, not Fox). But one of my friends once said that with Edwards out, she just wasn't going to vote. Today she has an Obama sticker on her car.
I am not Chuck Todd, so I cannot say with any finality what the actual numbers would be, but it would not be 18 million.