Why a view from Singapore?
Because people don't know what a view from Singapore (where's that anyway?) might look like.
This article introduces Singapore as a political entity and then provides an analysis of what the Obama-McCain contest looks like from this balance point between South Asia (think India) and East Asia (think China).
Details follow.
Why Singapore?
- Singapore is America's most politically stable trading partner in South-East Asia. Despite its apparently authoritarian stance on almost anything social or political, it is a free-trade friendly and economically pragmatic state. It has to be, since it only has one geographical resource: a well-located and sufficiently deep harbor.
- Singapore has been the gateway between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean for at least five centuries. Chinese traders from the East and Indian traders from the West met here to exchange goods. It was a British colony in the 19th and 20th centuries, and the fall of Singapore in 1942 effectively signalled the end of Western colonialism in the region.
- Modern Singapore is a secular state which maintains its existence between the larger states of the Malaysian Federation and Indonesia. It has relatively good relations with China, India, Japan and Russia, as well as with other states in the region. It can thus act as an 'honest broker' between many states interested in the region.
- What Singaporeans think will of course never affect the US Presidential Election. But it is interesting to think about how a state which was effectively an ally of the US during the Cold War, and continues to be a solid business partner, sees the possible outcomes.
What does Singapore think? Here are three views which may be of interest.
- On Feb 2, 2008, UPI Editor-at-large Arnaud de Borchgrave interviewed long-time Singapore political strongman Lee Kuan Yew. The first part of the interview covered the theme of 'Emerging Threats' and made specific mention of Lee's preferred choice among the three main US Presidential options at that time - and why.
Of all the candidates who will inherit the problem, I prefer John McCain. He will see this thing through. Walking away from it would also have disastrous consequences. If Afghanistan is a failed state, it's not your fault. No one has ever made sense out of it. But if you leave Iraq in its present state, you will have even bigger problems throughout the entire Middle East. The Shiites will get together. The Iraqi Shia will become dependent on Iran, and the Iranians will have mastery of that critically important Gulf area.
It should be noted however, that in the interview, Lee is clear about saying that entering Iraq was a mistake in the first place.
- On Apr 7, 2008, former Singapore ambassador to the UN Kishore Mahbubani wrote this piece. Mahbubani, a former chairman of the UN Security Council, has always urged Asians to look at the US, while urging Americans to look at Asia, in a mutually beneficial relationship. On page 3 of the article, he makes it clear what his preference is:
As we move from a mono-civilisational world of Western domination to a multi-civilisational one, the world needs an American president who understands intuitively and intellectually that we are dealing with a new phase of human history. America must learn to listen to new voices. Obama can teach it how to do that. His election would also destroy immediately half the massive anti-Americanism in the world...
Obama's authenticity has clearly struck a positive chord outside America. He has convinced many Americans that the time for "change" has come; and 3.5 billion Asians know that change has already come for them. The Asian century has begun. At no time in recent centuries have young Asians been more optimistic about their future. They are looking for an optimistic young American to connect with. Obama could not have come at a better time.
American leaders will have to surf new waves of history. Only Obama seems to have this surfing agility. If the world could vote, most would vote for him. Former United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan spoke for many recently when he said: "I think an Obama presidency would be inspirational, an incredible development in the world."
The article as a whole is worth a read, not least because Mahbubani is the current Dean of... the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, but because he characterizes the strengths and weaknesses of the three contenders at the time of writing as: McCain - the past, Clinton - the present, and Obama - the future.
- In recent months, it is clear from the newpapers in the region that the Obama candidacy brings both hope and fear. This is of course because of the nature of change. More exactly however, it is because the Asian states are a remarkable mixture of cultures and historical baggage, with external forces having had their say for a very long time. The USA has been seen as a meddler, as the future, as a trading partner, as a danger, and many other things to the fragile balance of powers here. But the young people hope. They believe that the USA will be a positive force without destabilising the region any further.
In today's newpapers in the region, that combination of hope and fear is seen in clear relief. The idea that Obama might lose brings chills. The idea that Obama might win brings uncertainty. In a way, the consensus seems to be that Obama is a strong candidate for having won the Democratic nomination, but that he must prove himself by winning the Presidential contest fairly, strongly, and wisely.