Something just struck me. It was a rock. Actually, I'm wondering if I'm catching on to how Obama plans to win the presidency. Lately I've been worrying he's getting too Clintonian, too small bore in his approach, all but advocating for school uniforms or whatever foolishness Dick Morris was pushing in '96. If we were to look back a couple months, the concern was that Obama was focusing too much on soaring rhetoric, on huge rallies and a campaign built on inspiration. These were the days when Obama was a hopemongerer. Funny how now folks are complaining he's not doing enough of that sort of thing. What I think we're starting to see take shape is a melding of these two strategies that on their own could lose, but together could prove dominant.
Let's break it down a bit. In order to win, Obama needs to both reassure the American people and inspire them. He has to be transformative and safe, bold and comforting. How does he do this? From my vantage point, he appears to be setting the stage to achieve this by appealing to the strongest desires of both his base and the independents he needs for a landslide.
First those independents. The last few weeks have been frustrating for many of us. Obama has shifted on FISA, come out in favor of executing child rapists, agreed with the DC gun control case. He's flown about the country talking about faith and patriotism and in many ways, sounding a bit like W circa 2000. If you look at the polls, this strategy appears to be working, although it's byproduct is a restless base. Obama's biggest issues are his "lack of experience" and the fact he's a black guy with some scary friends/acquaintances. It's imperative that Obama reassure folks that he's both ready for the job and a regular American. Hence the move to be tougher on crime, super patriotic, and openly religious. This isn't to say these are inauthentic, just that he needs to emphasize them as he introduces himself to the American people. Narratives can be set in July, and Obama needs to guard against the ones that can defeat him. One look at some red state polling showing Obama within striking distance in Georgia, Montana, Virgina, and North Carolina is a pretty strong hint this strategy is working.
But we the base want Obama to be bold, to talk about the big issues and give us some of that inspiring rhetoric. We want healthcare reform, an end to the war, a rollback of Bush tax cuts, etc. To quote Joel Stein, we want him to "hope all over" us. We want him to be the progressive champion we caught hints of during the primary. But this is what's been missing the last couple months, no? It's seemed like he's slowly transformed in Kerry/Gore/ManBearPig. Funny how this is the moment his campaign announces the Mile High acceptance speech and it's also when word stats to leak out about a massive rally in front of the Brandenburg gate in Berlin (http://www.spiegel.de/international/us-elections/0,1518,564083,00.html), which coupled with his foreign tour has the potential to be amazing. AND, fortuitously for him, it's when the GOP finally appears to be gearing up to unleash the slime machine, which should wake the base up a bit. Package that with the fact he'll surely start pushing for healthcare again, that he'll likely unveil a ballsy energy plan in the next couple months(my hunch), and that as we get closer to the election he'll definitely ramp up the hope machine again, I'm getting the feeling we're starting to see a really interesting two-pronged strategy emerging here (and let's not forget all the organizing and campaign-building going on right now, which is itself a hybrid tactic).
It's funny that yesterday I was feeling a bit down about the campaign. Obama's lost a whole bunch of news cycles of late. He's looked weak, even a little over-matched. The problem with following a campaign from our vantage point is it's really difficult to see the big picture, to view the battle from the generals' vantage point. What matters is how all this looks on Nov. 4. I suspect there are many good things we're not seeing that point to a win. Ultimately, I have to trust that the campaign that took out the biggest name in politics knows what it's doing. If that strategy includes the bold with the bashful, I think I'll be able to rest a little easier. For a day or two.