Me, I don't know much about politics. I worked on a Mayoral campaign or two. I stumbled into a PR job at an agency handling four campaigns one fall a long time ago and sat in on at least one war session with Jim Inhofe. Mostly I remember that his chief of staff (or campaign manager, one) carried a man purse, and that some takeout was worth 100 hour weeks and others was not. I was a complete naif. I was a registered independent. I had two little kids. I could not have articulated a difference between Republicans and Democrats.
So, you'll forgive me when I get everything wrong in the analysis I'm going to try to deliver. Please.
It seems like David Axelrod is a fucking genius.
There, I said it. I didn't even know who he was until today. I don't really know who he is now, more than a little surfing could turn up.
Apparently he's the man with his fingerprints all over the Obama campaign. And it seems to me he's playing this one for keeps.
My coworker, The Big Guy, is hella smart as my daughter would say. He styles himself a libertarian: fiscal conservative, social liberal. Tuesday, when asked who he was voting for, he shrugged it off. "McCain, I guess," The Big Guy said. "We don't need two Jesus."
Then it hit me, he's going to vote for someone for whom he has no passion and little respect, just like my high school crush, The Paleocon did for W last time.
The Paleocon said, "he's our guy," and shrugged like that explained something. The Big Guy shrugged the same way. "Shit," I thought. I'm not very ladylike in the privacy of my own thoughts. "Shit, they think the GOP is the Cubs."
I know from the Cubs. When I think of the Cubs, I think of cold beer on a breezing Chicago early summer day. I think of spicy Thai soup a short walk from the stadium. I think about the smell of the El platform, and the unfortunate sartorial choice many women made. Beer and tube tops in the bleachers, where I was a center field bleacher bum, were often unhappy companions. To this day I visit major league parks across the country and sit in the stands while a game plays on the field in homage to the Cubs. I root for them the same way I buy presents at Christmas -- automatically and without thinking about it. Ask me my team, and it's the Cubs. Yes, those Cubs. The ones that never win. Doesn't matter. "He's our guy."
So, can you get the Paleocon and The Big Guy to switch? Maybe not. There's nothing the Sox could do to engender my loyalty. They just play baseball. They don't hold a place in my heart. They aren't part of my story. But can you get other GOP faithful to do so? That's the question Obama and Axelrod have to have been asking themselves.
"God Bless the United States of America."
That line rang out eleventy-seven times during the three nights I spent watching convention coverage.
"I honor his service." Another recurring theme. Every time I heard it I thought "hate the sin and love the sinner."
How do you move from "...he's our guy?" He's our guy is an emotional choice. What else would drive perfectly reasonable people to purchase foam blocks of cheese you put on your head, and then proceed to put them on their heads? In public? On camera?
"John McCain is my friend," I hear on the television and I seethe inside. But this message was not for me. Maybe it was not for The Paleocon and The Big Guy, but it was for the Republican faithful looking for redemption because by spurning McCain, they were letting down the team.
The Big Guy parroted talking points like Packer's fans wear cheese on their heads. He doesn't believe it's a winning choice, but he owns it and his team, even ruefully, like I own my allegiance to the Cubs.
So what would make me give it up? What could so tarnish the memories of afternoons a quarter century ago that I would root for the Orioles? (because, honestly the Sox would never have a chance)
Obama and Axelrod are betting that health care, the war and energy independence (i.e. gas prices) will peel GOP voters away one or one thousand at a time. But they aren't in it to win on a change ticket, but to change on a winning ticket.
From my perspective they have crafted a campaign designed to get the votes now, and position them to govern from strength later. The house is in the bag, and like her or not, Nancy Pelosi can pass a decent bill or two given the chance. (No, I'm not talking about FISA or telecom immunity.)
What a President Obama really has to fear is not hitting sixty in the Senate -- and then having no means to peel off three or four Republicans when he needs to move something through. I believe Axelrod and Obama have done the math and determined NA GA HA PEN.
I believe that they have to put the fear of the electorate, a seething, frantic, intolerant beast if there ever was one into incumbent GOP Senators up for re-election in 2010. It that was the case, the Senatorial campaigns for 2010 are designed to go somewhat like this: "Voted with Bush 95% of the time, didn't learn his/her lesson and obstructed the agenda of change."
I hope that the reason for the conciliation before the taketown in each of those many speeches (enough honor already)was to offer cover for an electorate that votes like my friend and co-worker, The Big Guy.
They want to feel about their vote the way I feel about the Cubs (which thankfully doesn't require foam hats). They don't want to feel guilty for abandoning their guy.
As I read Obama's message it is "you weren't wrong, you were wronged. You aren't wrong now to think he's a good guy, he's just the wrong guy. Come with us and we'll pick up the pieces, you and me, together." Obama and Axelrod are recasting defection as patriotism, and desertion as strength. And if that isn't some serious political weightlifting, well, I don't know what would be.
But then again, what do I know from politics? I worked on the Inhofe campaign and couldn't believe anyone voted for the man.