Let's start by saying Sarah Palin is not as pure as the driven Alaskan snow. Who is? That said, picking Sarah Palin as his running mate was a terrific decision by John McCain. I know the knee-jerk reaction here is to try and find reasons why this isn't a good choice, and argue how this will help Obama. It's the natural dynamic here, but in this case it's either dishonest or self-deceiving. I know this won't be a popular opinion to express here, but this was a strong choice. Let me tell you the reasons why:
First off -- the big elephant in the room: her gender. She represents something groundbreaking for the GOP and, if the ticket is successful, something truly historic for the country. It's hard to imagine how this would not eat into the gender gap in the vote.
In a huge nod to the Clinton supporters, the Democrats made a big push this week to emphasize abortion rights and equal pay as leading issues in this campaign. Of course, these are traditional feminist and traditional liberal issues. However, having a woman espousing the pro-life position undercuts that as the exclusive feminist position. It will force women to consider where they will stand on that issue.
On abortion, Palin could not be a more powerful advocate for the pro-life position because she isn't just talking the talk. She walks the walk, with a baby who has Down's Syndrome. She will challenge the feminist orthodoxy on the pro-choice position, in ways that no other Republican has been able to do over the 35 years.
On the question of equality, her very candidacy is a far more compelling thing than a platform plank about equal pay for equal work. Just as Obama's candidacy poses a remarkable example for people about the capabilities of black people, Palin's candidacy also strikes a blow against continuing discrimination against women in the workplace.
As a self-described "hockey mom", Palin appeals to that voting block of independent mothers that proved decisive in the last four elections. These are the "soccer moms" that voted for Bill Clinton, and the "security mom" that voted for George W. Bush. Putting those votes in play, and giving those women a reason to emulate with, even admire the Republican ticket, is a brilliant gambit.
Yes, it undercuts the experience argument to a point -- given McCain's age, it's remarkable that he's put a woman with so little political experience so close to the Presidency. It will make it harder to make the argument that Obama isn't ready to be President, but it doesn't shut the door on that line of argument. The fact is that on that question, people focus on the Presidential candidate, not the VP choice. Spiro Agnew and Dan Quayle did not bring down the GOP ticket. Even though Lloyd Bentsen could say that Dan Quayle was "no Jack Kennedy", the voters still preferred George H.W. Bush to Mike Dukakis, who looked comical in a tank.
This also brings us to the question of the coming Vice-Presidential debate. There was probably never a debate as one-sided as the Bentsen-Quayle encounter, but it made little difference in the vote. So, for those who are looking forward to Palin falling on her face against Joe Biden, I have to remind you that this debate just won't be that consequential. Moreover, she will be schooled in the nuances of the foreign policy challenges we face. She will have at least a month to prepare, and I wouldn't expect her to look as out of her depth as Dan Quayle did. Based on my first impression of her -- her appearance today -- I'd say she seems to have her stuff together. She may not win that debate, but she's not going to sink the ticket with a historic flop, either.
She may not be experienced in foreign policy, but she is a Governor, as was Bill Clinton. Voters respect Governors, far more than members of Congress or Senators. That's why Obama's choice of Biden is a bit problematic, It's hard enough for one Senator to run for President, but a ticket with two Senators provides so many opportunities to attack it.
It also bolsters McCain's maverick, anti-Washington theme. Running against two sitting senators, McCain tabs a Governor from the state that most resembles the character of the Old West. He goes against conventional wisdom and revives his maverick image. It's a strong message, made stronger by Palin's own reputation in challenging the pork system that had ruled Alaska for decades.
Furthermore, the fact that she's from Alaska will make it far more convincing when Palin and McCain make the case for greater oil and gas exploration. This will weaken the Democratic argument -- perhaps not substantively so, but sometimes image is everything. The arguments are unchanged -- Democrats still have the intellectually stronger arguments -- but the fact that the Governor of Alaska will be on the ticket making those arguments does change the dynamic of the debate.
The fact that Palin has a son heading to Iraq also changes the dynamic of that debate. No doubt, Obama though adding Biden to his ticket would bolster his criticisms of our Iraq policy, given that Beau Biden was heading to Iraq. The impact of that choice is mitigated by McCain's selection of Palin.
On more superficial levels, this is also a smart choice. Palin is very popular and highly regarded. She's also extremely good-looking (let's face it, she's beautiful) and showed today that she's well-spoken on the stump. She will make the GOP ticket more attractive on a number of levels. Her gender and youth, as well as her beauty, will add much excitement to the ticket.
Whatever ways this choice undercuts the arguments that the GOP has been making about Obama's experience, I would say it's balanced out, at least, by the points in her favor. McCain needed to do something extraordinary to have a shot at putting together a majority. He's done that extraordinary thing and made it much harder for our side to win this...
Moreover, if nothing else, this choice anoints the next big star in Republican politics. McCain has instantly elevated Palin to another level. Someday, she will be a formidable opponent in her own right someday. Meanwhile, she injects the kind of excitement that the McCain candidacy desperately needed, and she offers the kind of demographic appeal that might make for a winning combination.
I know this won't be a popular opinion, and this diary surely won't get recommended, but I think it's important to inject a dose of sober reality into the discussion.