The dispatches from Beijing today provided great substance for a "Kremlinological analysis."
As someone trained by Kremlinologists, with a fancy degree in Russian History, and 18 years experience living in the "Third Rome" (don't ask) on the languid Moscow River, I have a natural interest in today's events.
Buffaloflank's diary was a good primer on the basics, albeit one with the usual Cold War bias against Russia (if their against Russia, they must be good guys).
Reality is much more complicated. But more of that later.
First I think it is interesting to take a Kremlinologist's approach to the scene at today's Olympic ceremony......
Well, first one must note that the Chinese must be absolutely none to pleased to have the Bush/Saakashvili dream team bomb on their parade.
(Let there be no doubt, as subject to hysteria as he often seems to be, Saakashvili would not have budged an inch without a green light from his paymasters in Washington.)
In the old days, we in the Russia trade used to analyze lineups on Lenin's Mausoleum and draw conclusions.
Well, analyzing the lineup in Beijing today provides an equally bountiful treasure trove.
The Chinese chose to make Bush sit right next to Putin. One can only think this was a last-minute improvisation, because other national leaders were not seated together, as far as I could tell. He seems to have desperately swapped seats with Laura to get away from Vlad.
At one point Putin seems to have been talking at him, and Bush had a very unpleasant grimace on his face. It was only on camera for a few seconds, but at least that much was disclosed.
Then Bush had to sit there, alone at the end of a row, isolated, friendless, for 3 exquisite hours trying desperately to keep his swagger as he sat there squirming in front of 4 billion people.
When the US team paraded by, Putin maintained an absolute stony glare without the slightest hint of applause or good will.
----------------------
Let's not make the same mistake as with Chechnya and reduce this situation to "Big Bad Russia vs. Small Courageous Freedom Fighters".
Just as the Chechens were gangsters and terrorists in addition to being freedom-loving (70% of the population, including ethnic Chechens, fled during the chaos of Chechen autonomy in 91-94, not after the war with Russia began),
So Ossetians should not just be smeared (as Buffaloflank tentatively does) with the label "puppet". 50% of the population has Russian passports - there's far more than puppetry at work here.
Need I remind everyone that small nations (do we remember Serbia, Croatia?) can also be viscous in their oppression of minorities? It seems I must.
Lest anyone forget Stalin, Beria, and Ordzhonikidze were of course Georgians, so we would be remiss to underestimate the Georgian capacity for bloodshed.
One truly interested in going beyond the stereotypes would be well off taking a few minutes to read up on the Georgian Civil War
Of course the press is completely taken in by Saakashvili's US education,his perfect English, his flattery us and his grand project of transplanting our way of life to Georgia: every empire loves such words, but the reality of Georgian ethnic rule is rather less Western in practice.
And most horrible of all, I have to inform you that not only white shining NATO can act (with its own strategic interests far from neglected) as a humanitarian interventionist in these situations.
Buffaloflank follows the standard Washington foreign policy establishment party line (albeit the left-leaning side)and gently attributes the problem to Russian intervention in the early 90's, neglecting (surprise, surprise) to mention that the situation was chaos and slaughter among ethnic groups, and that Russia stepped in to halt it.
They did it earlier than NATO in Bosnia, perhaps preventing a Georgian Srebrinica in Gori or Sukhumi.
--------------------------
Of course this blow up has nothing to do with national pride or ethnic rights. It is global power politics on a grand scale.
Our novice Buffaloflank says that he woke up today surprised to see this happening. To those of us with eyes to see, the writing has been on the wall since the Spring decision to put Georgia on a NATO path to further encircle Russia.
Russia is not going let this happen. NATO will not go to war to protect Georgia or Ukraine, but Russia has now proven that it will got to war to keep them out.
A Ukrainian civil war is the last thing Europe and the world need. And if you thing Ukrainians stand 100% against Russia, you've never been to Ukraine (or at least you've only been to Western Ukraine).
And of course all of this takes place on the background of the NATO dismemberment of Serbia: if we can recognize Kosovo, why not Ossetia and Abkhazia?
The Spanish saw this coming with Kosovo, and are now desperately hoping that the Basque territories won't be the next domino.
Why Saakashvili and his masters chose this moment escapes me.
The whole adventure seems as delusional as Iraq, only this time in miniature. And thumbing their nose at the Chinese at the same time? Insane.
Maybe they really did think that Tskhinvali would fall like Bagdhad, and the Russians would be all huff and puff and no action?
Or that if the Russians move, they will become a pariah on the world stage? Don't look like it.
Or is some more devious combination at work here?
I've definitely worn out my non-insider Kremlinologist skills at this point.
It all does make me thing that maybe this is just a warm-up/test balloon for an Iran October Surprise.