I have been scratching my head, lately, to come up with concrete advice that could be immediately useful to those selfless and tireless folks working hard on GOTV. By that I mean: all of you in 'solid blue' states who are dedicating your free time and your energy to reaching voters in 'pink' and 'light blue' states. Well, I think I finally have something. So, take out a piece of paper and write down this down:
(1) "Emptying Nests"
(2) "Grandchildren"
Got that? Good.
The amazing election map I want to tell you about is called Patchwork Nation (at the Christian Science Monitor)
And what I learned from it is that the key to GOTV for Obama in key swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania could be to talk to voters about their "grandchildren."
Patchwork Nation Map: Who Lives In the Swing States?
I will admit right off the bat that I am not usually very persuaded by election maps. They tend to be based on the last election, tend to be skewed towards ridiculous labels like 'red' or 'blue,' and tend to lead to hysteria rather than helpful insights.
Well, The Christian Science Monitor appears to share my same prejudices against these maps because it put together a resource that blows everything else out of the water. Forget blue and red maps. Meet the 'Patchwork Nation' interactive map.
The map identifies 11 types of demographic that dominate America's counties and then divides, gives them each a color, and then divides the map accordingly. These are the categories:
So far, pretty simple. But take a look at the categories. Two of these categories "Emptying Nests" and "Monied 'Burbs" are not typically what I am used to seeing.
Taken as a whole, the Patchwork Nation map looks like this:
Now, the first impression is that we see some pretty basic information there that we already know. Western states are chock full of "Evangelical Epicenters." Southern states have many districts that are "Minority Central." So far, no big insight.
But go ahead and click on the mint green button for "Emptying Nests" and take a look at what you get:
Whoa! As it turns out, an area that stretches from Western Pennsylvania through all of Ohio and Indiana consists predominantly of "Emptying Nests" districts.
Now, click on the tan-pinkish colored button for "Monied 'Burbs" and you'll see this:
The "Monied 'Burbs" patches fill in many of the remaining counties in Ohio and Indiana, meaning that these two states--of which Ohio is particularly important for an Obama victory in November--are demographically dominated by "Emptying Nests" and "Monied 'Burbs."
This I did not realize. Never before had I seen it presented so clearly.
Using the Map to Identify Keywords
Believe it or not, this is just the beginning of what I got out of this Patchwork Nation map. The next step is to use the information on the site to locate new language that might useful in GOTV.
Here's what I did.
First, I went to the definition of "Emptying Nests" to read what they had to say:
Slightly older than the US on average and not quite as wealthy, these 495 counties are home to many retirees and baby boomers. More than 22 million people live in Emptying Nests locales.
These areas are less diverse than the nation at large – more than 94 percent white and less than 3 percent Hispanic. They also tend to have higher concentrations of Christian evangelicals. Located primarily in the South and the Industrial Midwest, they went reliably for President Bush in 2004, giving him almost 58 percent of their vote. (link)
The words I see there are 'many retirees' and 'less diverse.' Interestingly, though, "Emptying Nests" districts do not skew wealthy, but are solidly middle class.
I then went to the definition for "Monied 'Burbs":
The Monied 'Burbs consist of 304 counties holding more than 84 million people, making them the largest and the wealthiest locales in Patchwork Nation.
Wealthier and slightly younger than America as a whole, this group also stands out for its educational attainment. More than one-quarter of the adults in these communities have college degrees, compared with 17 percent in the average U.S. county. The Monied 'Burbs were an uber "battleground" group in 2004. They split their votes almost evenly between President Bush (49.4 percent) and John Kerry (49.6 percent) and figure to be crucial in 2008 as well. (link)
That is interesting to me because I would have assumed that the "Monied 'Burbs" would be older rather than younger than the rest of the country. I guess not.
The words that I noticed in this definition were "wealthiest' and "educational attainment." I noticed those words because I think those two concepts suggest that these folks believe in a very core aspect of the American dream narrative: that education leads to success.
Getting from Demographic Definitions to a GOTV Frame
At this point I want to remind everyone that framing a debate is not about coming up with a slogan. Framing is about recasting political views in terms of core principles and values so that they more effectively communicate progressive positions.
So I asked myself: are there any obvious frames that come out of my readings of the Patchwork Nation map.
Yes!
In particular, I noticed that these districts most likely shared a common commitment to principle that economic security means doing what is necessary to take care one's family--even above and beyond taking care of oneself.
In particular, I suspect that "Emptying Nest" voters share a common, growing interest in the well being of their children's children.
When I tie this back to the current economic collapse, it leads me to wonder if these "Emptying Nests" voters are thinking not just about their savings accounts vanishing and the impact that may have on themselves as middle class retirees, but about the growing danger that their grandchildren may not be able to achieve middle class security in an economy crashed by the unregulated greed of a few at the top.
Conclusion: "Grandchildren"
Most of you are already probably using the phrase 'middle class' in your GOTV efforts in this area, and I do not want to undermine that or encourage you away from that in any way. But! In light of what we see on Patchwork Nation, you might want to consider using this word also:
grandchildren
In other words, when talking about the economic crisis this week--and all the way until November--keep in mind that for older voters in districts in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, their economic concerns will likely be framed in their own minds in terms of the well being of their grandchildren. Their idealism about America is not likely focused entirely on their own IRAs or their own retirement portfolios (although they are thinking about that, too). Rather, they are likely running through a larger story in their minds--a story about their grandchildren being able to succeed as middle class Americans in the same way that they did. And as such, they will likely be more receptive to GOTV efforts that speak to this narrative about the grim future this country presents for their grandchildren if we do not take steps towards real economic change right now.
Wow! All that from one measly little map on a website. Ah, but it's much more than just a map. It is a great way to "think through" the principles and values that people are listening for your GOTV efforts.
So go take a look.
And of course:
- Stay positive!
- Work together!
- Keep driving the debate!
- Get out there and win this election!