So you've clicked on the diary thinking to yourself, 'Cool! They have electoral college ties now? That would totally go with my new shirt!' Alas, they don't, although I think somebody is missing out on a pretty cool business opportunity. But I digress.
For those who haven't come across the concept before, an electoral college tie is when both Presidential candidates take 269 electoral votes and thus, after all the dreaming's done, after the battle's lost and won, after the polls have closed and the votes have been counted, Americans wake up at dawn's early light on November 5, 2009 still without the slightest goddamn clue about who the next President's going to be.
But what happens next, and what might it mean for those spacious skies and amber waves of grain?
Read on . . .
Back up a bit. This electoral college tie deal - is that particularly likely?
Not particularly likely, no. At the moment, Nate at fivethirtyeight.com has the probability of such an outcome at 0.95%. But it isn't impossible; here are two possibilities:
Barack Obama wins all the states John Kerry won (252 EV) except for New Hampshire, which leaves him at 248 EV. He also proceeds to pick up Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico for an additional total of 21 EV, therefore gaining a total of 269 EV.
Barack Obama wins all Kerry states, and in addition to this takes Colorado, Iowa and one EV for the second Congressional district of Nebraska, which includes Omaha and polls much more favorably for him than the rest of the state. (Nebraska has allocated one EV to each district since 1969.) This gives him an additional 17 EV, again taking him to 269.
So what happens next?
Ah. This is where it gets interesting. In the case of an electoral college tie the election of the President passes to the House of Representatives, and they would vote on it. The vote would take place on January 5, 2009 with the newly elected House members.
But there'll probably be more Democrats than Republicans, right? Yay for Prez Obama!
There probably will be, but the vote would be by state delegation, not by House member. So, for instance, Michael Castle, the sole (Republican) member of Delaware's House delegation has as much voting power as Massachussetts' (totally Democratic) delegation.
Also, an absolute majority is required to seal the deal, and tied delegations don't count. If Dems are 25-23 up with 2 delegations tied, that concludes nothing. (Currently they have 26 delegations, though.)
But what then? Do they flip a coin for it or what?
Well, here's where it gets really interesting, because there's something I've neglected to mention so far, and that's the question of who the Vice-President would be. One might conclude that a President can pick his/her own Vice President in this eventuality, but one would be quite wrong. In the case of a tied election, the Senate picks the Vice President.
And if the House can't decide, then whoever the Senate picks for Vice-President will become President.
Uh-oh.
I couldn't have put it better myself. Now, the Senate must of course vote on this before Inauguration, but in my research I haven't been able to find out if a precise date is allocated for this. It would be highly probable, though, that it would be the first week of January. So the Senate would vote on Joe Biden or Sarah Palin for the Vice-Presidency of the United States or, if the House is deadlocked, for the Presidency.
Now, of course this might not matter too greatly. Dems are currently projected by 538.com to pick up five Senate seats (NM, CO, AK, NH and VA) which would give them a tidy majority, and the Senate vote needs 51 votes only.
Of course, if they underperformed in Senate races and didn't make any gains, they'd still be 51-49 up, adding in the Independent Senators.
The two Independent Senators? You mean Bernie Sanders and . . . oh no.
Yes.
Oh, please, no.
Afraid so.
This guy:
But that would leave them tied at 50-50! What then?
Well. You're not holding anything breakable, are you?
I don't like the sound of this.
It gets worse, believe me. Although there is no specific rule as to what would happen in this situation, ties in the Senate are usually broken by the President of the Senate. Who is . . .
You have to be fucking kidding me.
I wish I were. But in this situation this guy:
Would be solely responsible for picking the next President of the United States. But not to worry. He might pick Joltin' Joe Biden.
Or then again . . .
But Kossacks, don't worry too much, what I've outlined today are low-probability events. But if you want to maybe canvass for your local candidate, perhaps write it up here on dKos - go right ahead. It may be even more important than you think.