I wrote a diary about a week ago titled Real Clear Politics: Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do! In which I made the case that Obama's GOTV (get out the vote) efforts are on such a large scale that they could actually tip some close states. Well for any doubters still out there look at the Indiana numbers. In the 2004 presidential election George Bush got 1,479,438 John Kerry got 969,011 votes. A difference of 510,427 votes. Well according to REPUBLICAN Secretary of State Todd Rokita (R-IN) he has 500,000 new registrations!
Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita also predicts the state will have as many as 750,000 new and updated voter registrations before registration for the November election closes October 6th.
Indiana Secretary of State Predicts Big Voter Turnout in November
Now granted I know all these new registers are not all Democrats. But look at the latest polls in Indiana. McCain 49, Obama 47. This is a Rasmussen poll*! Now one poll doesn't an lection make, but Kerry lost Indiana by approximately 20% so something is up here....
Indiana for those who don't know has had one of the lowest turn out rates in the nation. FiveThirtyEight.Com list it at 45th out of 50. So all pollsters turn out models are based on this history. In 2004 turnout was 54.7%. The state's top election official predicts 65% of registered Indiana voters will vote in the November general election.
For those of you bad at math that's about a 20%. The 750,000 new registered voters is a 27% increase in the voter rolls! Sen. Obama is spending $200K in the state on advertising while McCain is spending nothing.
Indiana for the past decade has galled me. It voting record is much redder then it should be (based on demographic voter patterns). It is surrounded by dark blue Illinois, blue Michigan, Purple Ohio, and red Kentucky. But even KT, and Ohio have voted for several Democratic presidential candidates since LBJ the last time Indiana voted Democratic (the only time since WWII).
Nate at fivethirtyeight has also noted two interesting points:
A lot of little things, which might add up to a big thing. Indiana has the most manufacturing-intensive economy in the country, with 18 percent of its jobs in the sector; Illinois-based unions are used to working its territory. Approximately 20-25 percent of the state is in the Chicago media market, and Obama overperformed in the Northern portion of the state during the Democratic primaries. Indiana has several major colleges and universities, and an above-average number of young voters. Obama has out fundraised McCain in Indiana better than 2:1.
Indiana is number one in the percentage of it's work force in manufactoring, did you know that? McCain is a far right free trader do you think Hoosiers know this? Maybe in the current economic crisis it's starting to sink in??? Also of importance Nate notes:
The essential question then is whether there has been some sort of latent Democratic vote in Indiana that the Democrats simply haven't bothered to fight for. Indiana has generally had one of the lowest turnout rates in the country, which might be a consequence of its early poll closing times (6:00 PM dopper0189), but might also reflect the apathy caused by the lack of attention paid to it. That alone might not be enough to make the state competitive. But when coupled with the fact that the Democratic nominee is a Midwesterner from a neighboring state, that the state's blue-collar economy is really struggling, and that one campaign is invested in the state when the other isn't, you might have the right mix of circumstances necessary to tip the state.
Remember in the 2006 mid-terms Indiana was ground zero for the democratic takeover. 3 of it's 9 seats changed hands, and the rock rib red Indiana 3rd has it's closest election in a generation. So something has stirring in Indiana BEFORE Obama came along.
If you live in Indiana please get involved. If you live in Illinois and can't drive to Michigan, please go over to Indiana (I feel safe about the team up in WI, and Iowa) they could use some extra help. I know Indiana isn't seen as a "tipping point" state. But if when Obama wins Indiana, the chances of McCain winning the presidency are about ZERO!
Democrats sat one their hands when Bush in 2000 started working in WV. Rove at the time said West Virginia was much bluer in elections then it should be based on demographics. Since democrats had only lost WV once in 40 years they didn't believe it would or could work. Dukakis the epitome of an "eastern liberal elitist" carried the state of West Virginia, it MUST be solid blue. Gore was a Tennesee boy, he couldn't be seen as more elitist then Dukakis? Well although Gore was harder to caricature this way then Dukakis, the voting paterns of WV demographics was changing. So even though the caricature was harder, it was more effective at moving votes (stop and think about that). Karl Rove saw this and WV has flipped (although interestingly it has tightened up in recent polling ???). These types of changing demographic voting patterns are what you look for when it comes to flipping a state. Doubters should beware at their own peril.
YES WE CAN!
UPDATE
ARG has the race at McCain 47, Obama 44 for those who think Ras polls are dodgy.
UPDATE 2
Selzer has the race at Obama 47, McCain 44. They have tried to adjust for increase minority, and youth turnout.
I said minority (not just black were most of Selver and the Press focus has been) because Indy has seen a huge increase in Latino numbers, even though they have lower registration numbers, in a close race every vote counts!
UPDATE 3
Please see HoosierDeb's diary
Urgent Action Call - NW Indiana on Sat 9-20