If you haven't heard already, NBC/WSJ has released a poll that only shows Obama ahead by 2 points. After close examination, I have concluded that there are many flaws in this poll.
Here are the reasons why the NBC/WSJ poll is flawed, and why the ABC/Washington Post poll is probably more accurate.
- This poll is an outlier. Research 2000, ABC/Washington Post, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Diego/Hotline, and CNN all show Obama up by at least 4 points. Plus, CNN and Marist show Obama surging in all the battleground states. In recent elections the electoral vote and the popular vote have been shown to be directly related(reminder: we actually won 2000)
- This poll under represents Democratic Party ID. ABC/Washington Post puts the Democrats at a 16 point advantage in ID, while NBC/WSJ only has Democrats at a 7 point advantage.
- This poll under represents Blacks and Hispanics. Out of all people polled by NBC/WSJ, only 11% were Black and 6% were Hispanic. Given the fact that voter turnout amongst these two groups surged during the primaries, it is very likely that Blacks and Hispanics will make up a greater composition of the electorate in 2008.
- Something about polls in general: http://politicalwire.com/...