Friday Night in September. Dates. Movies. Weekend Getaways. High school sports down south. Power outages still lingering from the hurricanes.
Had me wondering - wondering all day -
How MANY people actually watched "The Debate that Almost Was Not?
Well, now we know.
If You Hold It, They Will Come. So says Nielsen. Or, If You hold it, they will at least watch and listen. Interest was higher than with the Conventions.
Analysis of Top 15 markets in Battleground states below the fold.
If You Hold It, They Will Come.
At least, that seems to be the early data from Nielson.
McClatchy is reporting that Nielson has estimated that the First Presidential Debate of the 2008 Election drew upwards of 57 million viewers.(Official, final results won't be reported until Monday, however.)
This is based on a survey of their top 55 markets, according to the McClatchy article, linked below.
Nielson Estimate: 57 million Watched Debate
This is good news for Barack Obama, considering that independents and women (two target groups that he needs to win over) seem to have responded well to him during the debate.
But, who watched? I don't know the breakdown of Dems/Ind/Reps - but Nielson preliminary results does present an opportunity to see what markets in which states are tuning in.
McClatchy reports that
The city with the highest percentage of viewers was St. Louis, where 52 percent of the TVs were tuned to the debate, reflecting either an inordinate civic-mindedness or a complete lack of actual lives, take your pick. The lowest was Phoenix, with only about 24 percent, which might mean that they're confident their guy McCain has already won, or that they're sick of him, take your pick again. South Florida was somewhere in the middle, with about 37 percent of the TVs on the debate.
Looking at which markets had high shares, we can ask ourselves some important questions and possibly make some (hopefully accurate) inferences (that may or may not be helpful, such as:
How did markets in battleground and possible battleground states fair in terms of market share?
Top 15 Markets
City / State /Share (percent of TV tuned-in in actually turned on)
- St Louis MO 82.0
- Memphis TN 67.0
- Baltimore MD 66.0
- Washington DC 68.0
- Nashville TN 66.0
- Greensboro/High Point/Winston Salem NC 61.0
- Columbus OH 63.0
- Norfolk-Portsmth/Newpt News VA 59.0
- Richmond-Petersburg 55.9
- Denver CO 65.0
- Charlotte NC 54.0
12 Boston MA 58.0
- Portland OR 74.0
- Kansas City MO 61.0
- Miami-Ft Lauderdale 52.0
NORTH CAROLINA
My Analysis is that North Carolina is definitely ripe to go blue THIS election - with folks in North Carolina (#6 and 11) tuning in big time and Raleigh-Durham #17 (I am a UNC-Chapel Hill grad via NY, and this has me thrilled!).
The Obama Campaign pegged it right to schedule their first stops after the debate in North Carolina today. People there are motivated and the belief in change is being fanned there by their presence. One stop registration/ voting is about to begin in NC as well. I had my doubts up until recently and thought that VA would go this year, NC in 4 years - but I am a believer now.
FLORIDA
I'd been thinking that OH was more likely to go for Obama than Florida this year - with Biden's influence in PA/OH and the potential for Hillary to campaign hard there for Obama. But, between the "Great Schlep to Florida" movement to get young Jews to convince the older generation to vote for Obama and these stats - maybe Florida's theme song won't be Barry Manilo's song - So Close, And Yet So Far Away. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale / as well as West Palm Beach had lots watching, and as indicated above South Florida overall has been pegged at a respectable 37.0 share.
COLORADO AND VIRGINA
These stats also confirm strong interest in the battleground states that seem to be trending Blue - Colorado (#7) and Virginia (#8, 9), although the Norfolk interest may just be strong McCain supporters watching.
TENNESSEE
I'd be curious, to see what people think about the high interest in Tennessee (2 out of these 10 markets in a small Red stat. Am I missing something here?
MISSOURI
Kansas City and St. Louis MO These rankings may just reflect the understandable interest generated by the upcoming(supposedly) VP race - but can also indicate that MO could be moved from the Red corner with the strong response of independents and women.
DC/MARYLAND
The DC/Maryland numbers are Blue staters - likely high-knowledge people (people who work in DC, involved in government who most likely have decided who are political junkies! Strong political interest in Blue states of OR and MA explain Portland and Boston.
In any case, it is heartening that nearly two thirds of the TVs in the top 15 markets were tuned in to see Barack Obama at his most presidential moment to date. Get people willing to consider him is the first step. Tap into their areas of concerns is the second. And next week, demonstrate that the alternative could be deadly, in more ways than one.
It will be interesting to see if the Biden/Palin debates gets even more watchers than this week. Of course, the big question is not how many people will be tuning it, but how, how many people will be able to stay tuned the entire "debate" given Palin's propensity to insert foot in mouth and THEN shoot it with a hunting gun.