Public Release: 26-Sep-2008
"Optimism experts handicap the presidential election with about 6 weeks remaining until Nov. 4
Researchers have determined that the most optimistic candidates win more than 80 percent of presidential elections dating back to 1900. A Penn study measures the optimism of this year's candidates."
Full press release at http://www.upenn.edu/...
"'Although our initial report suggests this election is too close to call, shifts in optimism and rhetoric over the next few weeks may very well predict which side emerges as the victor,' Stephen Schueller, lead analyst on the project and a doctoral candidate in the Department of Psychology at Penn, said."
"...Republican candidates, according to the study, show a higher level of internality when explaining positive events and a lower level of internality when explaining negative events. Put simply, they accept credit for good events and blame others as the cause for negative outcomes."
How does this compare with other prediction methods? The electoral vote websites I watch -- FiveThirtyEight.com,
ElectoralVote.com, and Election 08 (http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/home.html) -- show Obama as a very likely winner.
Betting sites: Intrade.com's electoral map shows Obama well ahead. Traded contracts for Obama are well ahead and rising. Traded contracts for McCain are behind and falling. Same with Democratic Presidential candidate and Republican Presidential candidate.
The Iowa Political Markets electoral graph shows Obama ahead: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/...
What other methods are being used, and what do they show?