For those Chicken Littling because Obama dropped a whole single point in Rasmussen after the second day of the GOP convention and the sixth day of a virtual media blackout concerning all things Barack/Joe, I would like to call your attention to this new article from Rasmussen:
During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.
That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points, down two points from a month ago and down significantly from the double digit advantage they enjoyed in April and May.
In other words, Rasmussen's likely voter weighting has yet again shifted ever so slightly in McCain's favor, meaning that a '1 point drop' may not only be mere statistical noise, it may even conceal some slight movement in Obama's direction This also explains the increasing disparity with Gallup which yesterday showed a healthy 50-42 lead for Obama. Gallup attributes this incredible, mid-GOP convention lead to increased support among independents and Democratic women:
An update on gender differences in white voters' presidential vote shows that Barack Obama's gains vis-à-vis John McCain in the days since the Democratic National Convention have come among independents and Democrats of both genders, but that McCain has actually gained slightly among Republican women. The preferences of Republican men have not changed.
The net effect of these patterns: Obama has registered significant overall gains among white men, but there has been no net change in his support among white women.
These gains may be solidifying as McCain engages in the sort of transparent gender and culture baiting that tend to turn off moderates and non-ideological independents. However, Rasmussen will likely show some small gains for McCain in the next few days as he incorporates more Republicans into his likely voter model.
So, in conclusion, do not freak out if you see some more tightening from Rasmussen and if the Gallup lead holds steady, you should rejoice. After six days of being ignored by the media and as we pass the half-way point for the GOP convention, the fact that Obama is holding at 50% in both Rasmussen and Gallup is very, very good news for Democrats. Now, let's just hope that Obama has a way to reclaim the media cycle on Friday.