We've seen the hand-wringing this week from the Palin phenomenon, and early national tracking polls indicate a slight bounce (if it can be called that) for McCain. But one thing hasn't changed--McCain's in a world of hurt where it counts, in the Electoral College. As I see it, for the first time since I started doing these analyses, Obama is now over the magic number of 270.
Let's start with the states each candidate has locked up tight:
Obama: Hawaii (4), California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (11), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), Massachusetts (12), Vermont (3), New Hampshire (4), Maine (4), DC (3) Total: 247
McCain: Idaho (4), Nebraska-AL (2), Nebraska-CD 1 (1), Nebraska CD-3 (1), Wyoming (3), Utah (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9) Total: 46
Now the likely states:
Obama: Colorado (9), Michigan (17) Total: 26
McCain: McCain: Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Nebraska CD-2 (1), South Dakota (3), Kansas (6), Texas (34), Georgia (15), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6) Total: 106
Grand total: Obama 273, McCain 152
Swing states: Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Missouri (11), Indiana (11), Nevada (5), North Dakota (3), Montana (3)
The biggest change from last time is that Colorado has moved into the "likely Obama" column. Obama has held a close, but steady lead in all but a few polls since February. Still, I wasn't willing to throw Colorado over the fence until hearing that Obama is only down two points in CO-04 (the Marilyn Musgrave district), 48-46. Much of the rural portion of that district is nasty, nasty, nasty red--even more so than Colorado Springs (Musgrave is from one of the rural counties of the district). If Obama's managed to hold his deficit down this far, it's a safe bet he's going gangbusters in CO-01, CO-02 and CO-07. It's also probable that he's held down his deficit in CO-06 as well and holding his own in CO-03. Add that up, and it's safe to say Colorado might be on the verge of flipping.
Now consider that the presence of Barr on the ballot likely hands Oregon and New Mexico to Obama, and Biden's presence on the ticket locks down Pennsylvania and New Jersey (though Obama was likely to carry these four states anyway). If those four states go blue and Colorado has flipped, it's game, set, match Obama.
Even if Colorado hasn't flipped, there is virtually no way for McCain to win this election without carrying both Ohio AND Florida. By contrast, flipping Colorado is one of several ways Obama can win assuming the increasingly likely scenario of him holding all the Kerry states and flipping Iowa and New Mexico. Something else to consider--now that McCain is tied to public financing, Obama is in a position to absolutely pound him for the next two months--meaning that he could actually haul away a good-sized portion of the swing states (most likely Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Montana and North Carolina, in order of the likelihood they'll flip) and even a few "likely McCain" states (at this point, most likely Arkansas and West Virginia).
So what can we take from this? We're winning--in fact, we've had a strong position in the Electoral College since July. But let's keep it up ... it's going to be a long two months.