I just want to put a shout out to David Plouffe, perhaps Obama's best strategist and campaign manager. If it weren't for him, Obama wouldn't be here. There can be no doubt that this guy knows his numbers. His emphasis seems to be on strategy and not talking points. Other than sending out email to registered Obama supporters, I've never seen him in the media. I think he is one of the few Americans who doesn't care about his personal image but getting his job done. Let's look at what he's done in the past eight months....David Plouffe
I want to add a few disclaimers. One, all of my data is taken from Wikipedia, which you can very easily find there. I'm ignoring 'home states' Arkansas, Hawaii, Illinois, and New York. I'm mostly focusing on January, Super Tuesday and the 11 races following Super Tuesday with the exception of a few notable primaries may make another diary. Also the code in parenthesis after the agency polling is the MonthDay Spread of the polling. I'm assuming that you can tell the difference between March and May and June and January from when the primaries were held. I am also focusing on the 'major' poll agencies Gallup and Rasmussen that run daily figures now (and I believe then, but I may be wrong). I hope you'll agree that Plouffe is a master strategist. Finally, while I don't intend the tone to be negative, I know that some of you may view it that way, I'm only trying to be analytical. Judge me as you will
This is going to be long, but hopefully constructive.
Iowa: Lot's of Polling for Iowa. It wasn't really that good. I remember sitting down in my girlfriends place and watching the results come in...I was astounded. Obama actually won, despite very close numbers and expectations and, probably like many of you, I was enthused. Maybe this should be in the disclaimer portion, but I remember when Obama announced his run I thought "Man, I love you but it just isn't your time, Hillary is going to hand it to you with a shovel" or something close to that. At the time he didn't have much money (I wasn't about to bet on a losing horse...something I've changed) and he was way down in the polls. So let's get to them:
Interestingly, Gallup and Rasmussen never report close to the election date according Wikipedia.
Wikipedia (Note: All other sources I use for January data is at this link).
American Research Group(D31-J2): Clinton 34%, Obama 25%, Edwards 21%
Reuters/Zogby(D30-J2): Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%
Reuters/Zogby(D20-J1): Obama 28%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 26%
Acutal(J3): Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%
Polling Date two months before the election had (I'm eyeballing this off of a linear regression fit to polling data) Clinton 28%, Obama 25%, Edwards 24%. If you look at the closest data points at the time: Clinton 33%, Obama 24%, Edward 22% (approximately). I think that both Obama and Plouffe knew what they had to do: organize and where it would give them them most gain. Funnily, as worked to Clinton's advantage later in the Primary season: total delegates (which was really what the race was about) don't even get mentioned in the Press...only the win. Eventhough Clinton finished third, Obama only pulled one more delegate (at the time). I also think that strategically they had to pull this win or else. I'm not sure what they thought about New Hampshire, and maybe they didn't organize as well there (they were still pretty short on money at the time) so they took Iowa as a Caucus state and did what they needed to do. Period.
On to New Hampshire:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby(J5-J7): Obama 42%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 17%
Rasmussen(J5-J7): Obama 37%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 19%
Rasmussen(J5-J6): Obama 38%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 18%
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby(J4-J6): Obama 39%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 19%
USAToday/Gallup(J4-J6): Obama 41%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 19%
Actual Results(J8): Clinton 39%, Obama 37%, Edwards 17%
If all undecideds broke for Clinton they couldn't make up any of the numbers (for those that are given) based on the prior polls. Then, let's not go back two months, but only a few days to before the Iowa polls:
Zogby(J1-J4): Clinton 32%, Obama 28%, Edwards 20%
Zogby(D31-J3): Clinton 32%, Obama 26%, Edwards 20%
Franklin-Pierce(D31-D27) Clinton 32%, Obama 28%, Edwards 19%
CNN/University of New Hampshire(D27-D30): Clinton 34%, Obama 30%, Edwards 17%
American Research Group(D27-D29): Clinton 31%, Obama 27%, Edwards 21%
LATimes/Bloomberg (Likely Voters; D20-D26): Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 20%.
I think Obama/Plouffe knew he had to take one of the two first primaries. He choose Iowa because it is a Caucus state, smart move and as the poll numbers suggest...it bumped his polls underservedly so. I remember the pundits at the time quoting the 'Bradley Effect', I think the polls just oversold the expectation. I don't think Obama had the organization to take New Hampshire and I think he and Plouffe knew it. They knew thier opponent and they were already planning for the long, hard, slog though the primaries, particularly Super Tuesday. Let's look at Nevada.
Nevada: This is really interesting. Here are the poll numbers before Iowa (and there aren't many polls in NV anyway):
Zogby International(N9-N10): Clinton 37%, Obama 19%, Edwards 15%
Mason-Dixon(D3-D5): Clinton 34%, Obama 26%, Edwards 9%
American Research Group(D1-D6): Clinton 45%, Obama 18%, Edwards 14%
After Iowa?
Research 2000/Reno Gazette-Journal(J11-J13): Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%
American Research Group(J9-J14): Clinton 35%, Obama 32%, Edwards 25%
Mason-Dixon(J14-J16): Clinton 41%, Obama 32%, Edwards 14%
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby(J15-J17): Clinton 42%, Obama 37%, Edwards 12%
Obama pulls much closer, actual?(J19): Clinton 51%, Obama 45%, Edwards 4%
Yeah, Clinton won in the polls, but Obama, at the time, actually pulled in more delegates (13 v. 12)...the name of the game right? Of course that changed when it went to the state (in Obama's favor), but where was the media narative? Gone, Gone, Gone. This is a prime example of Plouffe knowing how to game the system. He knew where to get votes (media narrative be damned), the only thing that matters at the end of the game is the number of delegates, and by God, they knew where to get them. After I saw this I had a new respect for Obama and the team he had.
I was planning on pontificating on Super Tuesday and the the 11 primaries that happened afterwards, but I imagine at this point you're thinking who cares!
There is one other state that I want to address because it has personal interest to me. It is the state I live in. It is Indiana:
Out of 92 counties in the state, Obama pulled 9-10, depending on who you trust: herehere and here.here Either way, Obama only won 10% of the counties and still pulled off a coup. Clinton won by little more than just 1% and the delegates she pulled off were way less than single digits. I didn't think it would be possible, but these guys nearly pulled it off! Think about it!
They nearly won IN based on organizing in 10% of the counties. Think about it. They know where to focus and to whom! Damn if that don't make me feel good!
The people in Obama's campaign aren't worried about the polls. They are absolutely focused on winning the game. They're focused on us. They're focused on our ability to get out and move the electorate. It's a new game now. It's now winner take all. I'm convienced that David Plouffe knows this, I'm convienced that Obama KNOWS this. They're doing what they need to do, that doesn't mean we should stop and pat ourselves on the back. That means we need to buckle down and tow the line.
End of the story: We have an outstanding leader, and David Plouffe is one of his lieutenants...with remarkable insight and focus. They knew that the Primary would be an unbelievably hard fight and nobody gave them credit for what they did (in the MSM). They know that they have an unbelievably hard fight now, and they're not taking bullshit polls for an answer I can tell you right now!