The Republicans are "counting" on 2010 to be an average mid-term election where they can step in and save the day, and take back many seats like they did during Clinton's mid-term. Why are they wrong? Lets me count the ways:
- Clinton had a much tougher first term than even Obama seems to be having. Clinton was below 40% approval in his first two years, Obama bottomed at 52% and has recently bounced to 58% approval (all Gallup numbers).
Bill Clinton was below 50% approval, and fell to below 40%approval in his first two years
Obama's job approval always over 50%, and currently bouncing off his lows
- Republican party identification is tanking, and still getting worse:
Pollster shows independents rising, and Republican numbers tanking
- The final nail in the coffin is how the party identification is breaking in the states, where the repubs are becoming more marginalized to the racist south and the religious nuts in the West:
Democrats with significant lead in 30 states, Republicans only 4
So, the Republicans are self deluded and living in Dick Cheney's alternate reality as they whistle past the graveyard. So don't worry too much about stories like these from Politico, they have a vested interest in creating a horse race. Unless these numbers change significantly, we are likely to largely hold or own in 2010 and Obama will crush some right wing religious nutball in 2012 (please let it be Palin).
As an added bonus, click here: http://www.palindeception.com/