(x posted at Swing State Project)
It's true! In the special election to replace newly confirmed SecArmy John McHugh, Bill Owens (D) leads! The election will be held 19 days from now, Nov 3.
For the moment, it's a pretty close three way race:
Owens has the support of 33 percent of likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District, followed by Scozzafava at 29 percent and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent,
In the previous poll from 10/1, the numbers were 28 (Owens) 35 (Scozzofava) 16 (Hoffman).
And the details look marvelous for our candidate.
Here's the link to the Siena poll (PDF) , reported today (10/15)
Crosstabs - also PDF - here http://www.siena.edu/...
As I noted in my diary yesterday, We might actually win the NY-23 Special Election, Scozzofava is running out of money.
In some ways, it may be just as well for DeDe, as Owens' ads are more effective
Voters are noticing all the money being spent on advertising in the district, with 67 percent seeing a Scozzafava commercial, 60 percent seeing an Owens commercial, and 33 percent seeing a Hoffman commercial," Greenberg said. "Among those who’ve seen Owens’ commercials, a small plurality says the commercials make them more likely to support Owens. However, by a margin of 28-12 percent, those who’ve seen Scozzafava’s commercials say those commercials make them less likely to support her.
Owens's support may grow, as 47% of voters don't even know enough about him yet to have an opinion on him. Even with that handicap, Owens is leading with the support of only 55% of Ds.
Owens Scozzafava Hoffman
D 55 17 10
R 19 40 27
I 28 24 31
Yes, Hoffman, the candidate of Club for (no) Growth, is actually leading among Is. But that may be a function of the small poll size (617 likely voters, overall MoE of 3.8%). Nevertheless, Hoffman's support is also growing fast, and should be monitored.
The NY delegation is currently 26-2 D, with this seat currently vacant. We can contribute to making NY almost all blue, courtesy of Act Blue.
And when Owens wins, we will all be putting a stake into the heart of R hopes for a rebound in 2010.