All in all, a fairly quiet day on the political trail. A few polls did get released today, the results of which will probably be mildly depressing for Democrats.
CT-Sen: Dodd Takes Step Back According to Curious Q Poll
While there is a little cause for optimism by digging into the numbers, the general tone of the new Quinnipiac poll out of Connecticut is pretty darned sour. After building his way near parity with his leading GOP opponent (former Congressman Rob Simmons) over recent months, Dodd took a big step back in this Q poll, trailing Simmons by eleven points (49-38). Against the other four leading Republican candidates, the result winds up within the margin of error. So...what is the good news? Well, for one thing, Simmons is far, FAR from a mortal lock as the GOP nominee: he polls at just 28% in the survey, leading newcomer/wrestling magnate Linda McMahon by just 11 points. For another, there are some curious internals--Dodd leads Simmons in Litchfield, which makes little sense as it is far more amenable to Republicans than Hartford, where the poll claims Simmons has a fifteen-point edge. That is an eyebrow raiser, to be sure.
OH-Sen: Portman Leads and Brunner Gains, According to Q Poll
Quinnipiac is getting into the 2010 electoral game early. Not only did they offer new numbers in Connecticut, they also polled the state of Ohio. Yesterday, we saw that they had the gubernatorial race as a dead heat. Today, we learn that the Q poll sees the Senate in the exact same fashion. Unlike previous polls, they give presumptive GOP nominee Rob Portman (the former Congressman and Bush administration official) with a statistically insignificant lead over his Democratic rivals. One of the bigger headlines out of this poll is a surge of sorts for Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. After trailing state Lt. Governor Lee Fisher in the Democratic Primary, she now is nearly even with him (Fisher now holds a 24-22 lead). Meanwhile, both Brunner (34-38) and Fisher (36-39) trail Portman by almost identical margins in a general election trial heat against Portman.
NC-Sen: Another Month, Another Unspectacular Set of Data for Burr
The team over at PPP, which is based in North Carolina, make a point of polling their home state on a monthly basis. It must be said--their consistency in polling the home-state Senator has been uncanny. Though it was surely incremental, there was some movement this month on voter reaction to Republican incumbent Richard Burr. Paired against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr's lead is now down to just four points (44-40). Against actual candidates, Burr fares better, but he remains under the classic 50% "vulnerability" threshold: Congressman Bob Etheridge comes the closest, trailing the incumbent by ten (45-35).
MA-Gov/MA-Sen: Democrats Still Look Good In Bay State
A new Suffolk poll shows that, at least in Massachusetts, Democrats are still in decent shape. Incumbent Governor Deval Patrick actually has one of his better polling performances. His approval rating is up to a 42/51 spread (it has been much, much lower), and he has at least a double-digit lead in a three-way contest with Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill and the Republican nominee. 2006 Indie candidate Christy Mihos fares slightly better, but still runs a clear third place behind Patrick and Cahill (36-26-20). Meanwhile, in the special Senate election, there are clear leaders in both primaries: Martha Coakley has a 27-point edge on the Democratic side (44%, to 17% for businessman Steve Pagliuca and 16% for Michael Capuano), while state legislator Scott Brown leads perennial candidate Jack Robinson by a landslide on the GOP side (45-7). Coakley, or whomever emerges from the Democratic primary, will be a solid favorite in January's general election.
IN POLITICAL NEWS....