Let me start by saying, I am a strong supporter of a robust public option (and would prefer single payer). Unfortunately, all sides have failed to some degree.
- The White House (i.e., President Obama) should have been clearer and stronger in leading the healthcare debate from the start.
- Conservative Democrats should have shown more backbone to support serious reform (realizing that their constituents for the most part strongly support a public option.
- Most importantly, progressives should have organized! Where was the huge million people march on Washington for healthcare reform? Where were the constant (daily) sit-ins at insurer offices. In that sense we all failed.
So what WILL happen on healthcare? (find out below the fold)
Simple:
- The public option will be stricken. As disgusting and disheartening as it is, it will be replaced by a trigger (hopefully a stronger rather than a weaker one--but neither is very good).
- As a result of the trigger, Snowe, Collins and Voinovich will come over (AT LEAST to defeat the filibuster and possibly to vote for the bill--we'll see on that one). In the end, I think only Snowe VOTES FOR the bill.
- Meanwhile, Liberman (because he is really a GOPER), Nelson (on the abortion language issue) and Lincoln (who knows why) will support the GOP on the filibuster.
- Finally, because of the loss of the public option, Bernie Sanders will vote AGAINST the bill, but will NOT support the Filibuster.
Final count, Filibuster DEFEATED 60-40, bill passes 57-43.
The conference committee will reconcile the two bills, and the final bill will have NO public option (but some kind of trigger).
The reconciled bill will narrowly pass the House (probably by similar to the 220-215 margin it did before) and pass the senate (same 57-43 margin). And President Obama will sign it in to law, likely during the first week of 2010.
Thoughts and comments please.