I'm really looking forward to the show-down tonight (I know I'm not the only one!). There's been alot happening in the past few days: Govn'er's meeting, Sunday Talk, Finacial Responsiblity Meeting, etc. (I'll leave Coleman v. Franken to WineRev, nobody could possibly do it better and I've been hooked since the trial started). There is a currently Rec'd Diary The Obama Code, which divulges into Obama's political ethos. It is an intersting read and I think, more or less, descibes Obama's value system and how Obama's value system fits with the majority in America.
What has interested me more are Obama's tactics. I think most of us have had a resonable read on Obama's strategy, but (myself included) alot of us have questioned his tactics. After Nov. 4th I tried to make this a non-issue and just be an observer. Like any human, it hasn't been perfect, but like many humans, I am working on improving myself.
A couple of things. I've been an Obama-boy since I heard him speak and the DNC in 2004. I can remember my first reaction to his announcement to run for the presidentcy: it's not your time. In my view (at the time) it was Clinton's time. I was convinced that Hillary was going to destroy him in the Democratic Primaries. I was wrong. What we got was one of the best cliff-hanger's in political history.
Particularly early on. Obama had some serious gaffes. Wright, Bitter and Clinging, etc. He handled them deftly. There are two ideas that I took away from the Jan.-Apr. experience: 1) Obama found a way to turn a mis-step into and opportunity, 2) the pundits were wrong for a long time.
I will only say this: the pundits are dead wrong. They thrive on contraversy. They will try to make an ass out of lapel pins (a biblical ass, people!) and a plitician out of a wink. I could go on for paragraphs and paragraphs, but the simple point is that they are very often wrong. I suggest ignoring them, completely.
Here's why:
The simple fact is that the economy is in the dumpster. Nobody disputes this fact. Nobody. The actor of last resort has become the goverenment. Tax cuts do Jack Shit and IT IS IMPOSSIBLE for the Fed to cut interest rates any lower to make it look like tax cuts work in any meaningful way.
Now to tactics:
Obama put a serious amount of tax cuts in the stimulus that he later called a 'mistake'. I don't believe this. Why? He effectively removed the Republican arguement for being against the bill. I think he knew that if he put alot of tax-cuts into the bill the Republican would react this way. I look at it this way. He was putting out a feeler. If the Republicans had accepted this he migtht have said "Shit, this is going to be easier than I thought!. But he knew that Republicans would obstruct. I don't think he guessed the magnitutude, but I think he was pleased with it. He went to the other party's caucus and advocated for his plan, he knew they wanted tax cuts in the plan (I think he also knows they do nothing to stimulate the economy, we have alomost 30 years of data to prove that Reagan "trickle-down" is just what H.W. called it in 1980: Voodoo ecenomics).
Here's where we get to tactics: The American People saw this as reaching out. The polls show it, and Obama played it very well. I secretly think he is hoping that Republicans will be obstructionist. People, real people, need help now. Nearly every single Republican in Congress rejected real help to real people. Obama comes out as the guy who tried to reach out. Republicans...FAIL.
I think he knows when he talks people listen. And trust. The first person he called on at the Finanacial Responisbility Conference was Mr. Anti-Pork: John McCain. Not only did he trivialize McCain by making fun of his question through hellicoptor, he ligitimzed him by asking him the first question. Then (since McCain is still a legislator) he asked him to pull it out of the budget. Ouch! Read: You still want to make good on you campaign promises? Make it happen. Insider Baseball: Don't fuck with me again.
Eric Cantor: Bring it on. President Obama called him out by name by saying (paraphrase) Eventually, Rep. Eric Cantor will say Obama has a good ideea. That was a political slap in the face. The Pres. just said you don't understand your situation, or your constituants'. Personally, I would have preferred if Obama just called him a douchebag. But there is that politics this.
So tonight (which, I apoligize, I thought I would get out earlier, and I should never have picked up the phone in the first place), we get Obama v. Jindal. This is Captain Campaign Promise v. Captain Contradiction. Let's not forget that Jindall voted for unemployment extention when he was in congress. Refusing to help the people who need is most (note to Jindell: they're probalby not all black), this guy is toast. PS: why didn't Webb run for Pres. after he gave his rebuttal in 2007 to the SOTU address?
Jindell=Palin. The Republicians are slowly waking up. Crist, the dude from Utah whose name I forget right now, I think they're slowly getting it. They couldn't bring a bunch of ideologes in thier wake, but in eight years...maybe.
I think that nobody will beat Obama in four years.
I thinkd that the Republicans will regroup, perheps in a new party if they have to.
I think that we're a in a purging period now. I think that the Repulican's that survive will either be in a new party, or transform the current one.
Please be kind on the spelling...I wanted to get this out before the address.
Finally, given the firery speeches and oratory, I really couldn't imagine how a man like this would address the congress. I can't wait, he should try to move the elected officials (D&R) like he moved the elctorate.
Love.
PS: I've published this without links/ref's. I assume most of this stuff is common knowledge here. I will try link if you need it, just not too soon.