Research 2000 has polled a series of matchups between the two strongest potential Republican candidates (including incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Secretary of State Trey Grayson) and the four strongest potential Democratic candidates (Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General Jack Conway, State Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo).
The poll results indicate that despite wildly diverging favorabilities for each candidate, every matchup yields a four-point margin at the most, regardless of who the candidates are. Even stranger, the least popular candidate in the field by favorability - Senator Bunning - actually has the strongest numbers in head-to-head polls.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/29-2/2. Registered voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)
Jim Bunning (R) 45
Ben Chandler (D) 42
Jim Bunning (R) 46
Jack Conway (D) 42
Jim Bunning (R) 45
Crit Luallen (D) 41
Jim Bunning (R) 46
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 42
Trey Grayson (R) 42
Ben Chandler (D) 42
Trey Grayson (R) 42
Jack Conway (D) 41
Trey Grayson (R) 42
Crit Luallen (D) 42
Trey Grayson (R) 43
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 42
Bunning's favorability is lower than that of President Obama, who lost Kentucky by 19 points in November 2008 - Obama gets a 47/44 favorable/unfavorable rating, while Bunning is mired at 41/47. He's the only person in the field with negative favorability marks.
So why is Bunning still leading? Two reasons;
- name recognition, and
- the state's general conservative bent.
His numbers can hardly be called "strong"; 45% reelect for a two-term incumbent is very weak, in fact. Still, perhaps due to far superior name recognition, they're better than Grayson's.
Mongiardo is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. His favorability is decent at 50/40; Democrats like him (although more Dems dislike him than any of the other D candidates), independents generally like him pretty well, Republicans hate him.
Chandler (who has shown no inclination to run) has excellent favorables, but surprisingly he doesn't do appreciably better than anyone else in head-to-head matchups. Perhaps the conventional wisdom that a race with Chandler in it would be his to lose, was mistaken.
Conway is the most likely to run after Mongiardo (who is already in). He starts with stron favorables (at 48/27, better than Mongiardo's), although he's the least well-known of all the Democratic candidates.
Grayson starts as the candidate with the lowest name recognition of all, but he is still competitive in polling. He's the beneficiary of both generic Republican strength in Kentucky, and the fact that those who do know Grayson seem to like him (39/18 favorables).
The fact that he does well even with lower name recognition indicates that he may well be the stronger general-election candidate than Bunning.
As for the Democrats in the race, they all start as highly competitive, and any of them appears poised to make a terrific race out of this.
KENTUCKY POLL RESULTS – FEBRUARY 2009
The Research 2000 Kentucky Poll was conducted from February 2 through February 4, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 282 (47%)
Republicans 234 (39%)
Other 84 (14%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 191 (32%)
45-59 198 (33%)
60+ 109 (18%)
White 516 (86%)
Black 65 (11%)
Other 19 (3%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Bunning? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 25% 24% 23% 12%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 41% 47% 12%
MEN 45% 44% 11%
WOMEN 37% 50% 13%
DEMOCRATS 24% 65% 11%
REPUBLICANS 62% 26% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 39% 45% 16%
18-29 37% 50% 13%
30-44 40% 48% 12%
45-59 42% 46% 12%
60+ 45% 44% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Trey Grayson? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 27% 11% 7% 43%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 39% 18% 43%
MEN 41% 17% 42%
WOMEN 37% 19% 44%
DEMOCRATS 29% 24% 47%
REPUBLICANS 49% 12% 39%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 15% 40%
18-29 37% 19% 44%
30-44 39% 18% 43%
45-59 40% 18% 42%
60+ 40% 17% 43%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ben Chandler? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 33% 17% 11% 20%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 52% 28% 20%
MEN 49% 32% 19%
WOMEN 55% 24% 21%
DEMOCRATS 67% 16% 17%
REPUBLICANS 34% 45% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 53% 22% 25%
18-29 54% 26% 20%
30-44 53% 27% 20%
45-59 52% 29% 19%
60+ 49% 31% 20%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Crit Luallen? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 20% 33% 14% 11% 22%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 53% 25% 22%
MEN 49% 30% 21%
WOMEN 57% 20% 23%
DEMOCRATS 69% 12% 19%
REPUBLICANS 33% 43% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 56% 19% 25%
18-29 56% 22% 22%
30-44 54% 24% 22%
45-59 53% 26% 21%
60+ 49% 29% 22%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Daniel Mongiardo? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21% 29% 22% 18% 10%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 50% 40% 10%
MEN 47% 44% 9%
WOMEN 53% 36% 11%
DEMOCRATS 67% 28% 5%
REPUBLICANS 30% 57% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 48% 34% 18%
18-29 53% 37% 10%
30-44 51% 39% 10%
45-59 50% 42% 8%
60+ 46% 43% 11%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jack Conway? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 31% 16% 11% 25%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 27% 25%
MEN 44% 31% 25%
WOMEN 52% 23% 25%
DEMOCRATS 65% 11% 24%
REPUBLICANS 26% 47% 27%
INDEPENDENTS 52% 23% 25%
18-29 51% 22% 27%
30-44 49% 26% 25%
45-59 49% 28% 23%
60+ 43% 32% 25
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ben Chandler the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?
BUNNING CHANDLER UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 42% 13%
MEN 51% 39% 10%
WOMEN 39% 45% 16%
DEMOCRATS 14% 74% 12%
REPUBLICANS 83% 5% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 43% 40% 17%
WHITE 52% 37% 11%
BLACK 4% 76% 20%
OTHER 5% 67% 28%
18-29 41% 45% 14%
30-44 43% 44% 13%
45-59 47% 41% 12%
60+ 49% 38% 13%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Crit Luallen the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?
BUNNING LUALLEN UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 41% 14%
MEN 52% 36% 12%
WOMEN 38% 46% 16%
DEMOCRATS 14% 73% 13%
REPUBLICANS 83% 5% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 43% 39% 18%
WHITE 52% 36% 12%
BLACK 4% 75% 21%
OTHER 5% 68% 27%
18-29 41% 44% 15%
30-44 43% 43% 14%
45-59 47% 40% 13%
60+ 49% 37% 14%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Daniel Mongiardo the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?
BUNNING MONGIARDO UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 42% 12%
MEN 51% 38% 11%
WOMEN 41% 46% 13%
DEMOCRATS 14% 75% 11%
REPUBLICANS 85% 5% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 38% 18%
WHITE 53% 36% 11%
BLACK 4% 77% 19%
OTHER 5% 67% 28%
18-29 41% 45% 14%
30-44 44% 44% 12%
45-59 48% 42% 10%
60+ 51% 37% 12%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jack Conway the Democrat and Jim Bunning the Republican?
BUNNING CONWAY UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 42% 12%
MEN 52% 38% 10%
WOMEN 40% 46% 14%
DEMOCRATS 14% 75% 11%
REPUBLICANS 85% 5% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 38% 18%
WHITE 53% 37% 10%
BLACK 4% 75% 21%
OTHER 5% 68% 27%
18-29 41% 44% 15%
30-44 44% 44% 12%
45-59 48% 41% 11%
60+ 51% 38% 11%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ben Chandler the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?
GRAYSON CHANDLER UNDECIDED
ALL 42% 42% 16%
MEN 47% 39% 14%
WOMEN 37% 45% 18%
DEMOCRATS 10% 76% 14%
REPUBLICANS 82% 5% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 35% 25%
WHITE 48% 37% 15%
BLACK 3% 76% 21%
OTHER 3% 66% 31%
18-29 36% 47% 17%
30-44 38% 43% 19%
45-59 45% 41% 14%
60+ 49% 38% 13%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Crit Luallen the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?
GRAYSON LUALLEN UNDECIDED
ALL 42% 42% 16%
MEN 48% 38% 14%
WOMEN 36% 46% 18%
DEMOCRATS 10% 75% 15%
REPUBLICANS 82% 5% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 37% 23%
WHITE 48% 37% 15%
BLACK 3% 75% 22%
OTHER 4% 65% 31%
18-29 36% 47% 17%
30-44 39% 43% 18%
45-59 45% 41% 14%
60+ 49% 38% 13%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Daniel Mongiardo the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?
GRAYSON MONGIARDO UNDECIDED
ALL 43% 42% 15%
MEN 47% 40% 13%
WOMEN 39% 44% 17%
DEMOCRATS 11% 75% 14%
REPUBLICANS 82% 5% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 42% 36% 22%
WHITE 50% 37% 13%
BLACK 3% 75% 22%
OTHER 4% 66% 30%
18-29 36% 46% 18%
30-44 40% 43% 17%
45-59 46% 41% 13%
60+ 50% 38% 12%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jack Conway the Democrat and Trey Grayson the Republican?
GRAYSON CONWAY UNDECIDED
ALL 42% 41% 17%
MEN 46% 39% 15%
WOMEN 38% 43% 19%
DEMOCRATS 10% 73% 17%
REPUBLICANS 81% 5% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 36% 24%
WHITE 49% 36% 15%
BLACK 3% 73% 24%
OTHER 4% 65% 31%
18-29 36% 44% 20%
30-44 39% 42% 19%
45-59 45% 40% 15%
60+ 49% 38% 13%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21% 26% 26% 18% 9%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 47% 44% 9%
MEN 44% 48% 8%
WOMEN 50% 40% 10%
DEMOCRATS 72% 18% 10%
REPUBLICANS 20% 74% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 48% 12%
18-29 51% 39% 10%
30-44 49% 42% 9%
45-59 45% 46% 9%
60+ 43% 48% 9%