On Saturday, I wrote a diary about volcano monitoring. In the comments, a couple people pointed out a couple interesting data points that I hadn't even really considered.
So I apologize -- some of this will be a repost (but given how quickly it rolled off the recent list, I doubt most of you saw it anyway.) But this diary has another political aspect I neglected altogether: whether Sarah Palin set Bobby Jindal up.
Now then, if you remember, Alaska's Mount Redoubt erupted late last month. At the time, Bobby Jindal rightfully received a huge amount of mocking because in a February speech, he had mocked stimulus money going toward "something called 'volcano monitoring.'" It seems like that remark may have been far more than a really unfortunate coincidence for Jindal.
Yes, on its surface, it appears that we only have to look far as back as February to find the beginning of this story. President Obama had spoken to Congress about the economy and his stimulus, and Bobby Jindal followed with a widely panned speech which many felt was downright amateurish after listening to Obama's oratory.
During this speech, Bobby Jindal attacked the idea of much government spending and cited an example. Admirably, he did not end up taking cues from fellow Republicans who just plain, well, made shit up. (See maglev train to the Bunny Ranch and the San Francisco marsh mouse.)
No, instead, he chose to attack a legitimate part of the stimulus that he apparently felt was a waste of taxpayer money: "something called 'volcano monitoring.'" And we know how well that turned out for him when Mount Redoubt erupted in March. It was like a spoiled cherry on top of the shit sundae that was his speech.
And while it's tempting to just write it off as "God/karma/the Universe hates Republicans," some evidence has come to light that might be even juicier.
Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that the US Department of the Interior is going to be spending some of its first stimulus monies on volcano monitoring:
Weeks after Mount Redoubt erupted in Alaska, the Interior Department is spending some of its first stimulus money to improve volcano monitoring. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said the department would use $15.2 million to modernize volcano warning systems. Mr. Salazar said the monitoring would do a better job of warning the public and airlines of eruptions, as it did months before Mount Redoubt blew in March. The Alaska Volcano Observatory first started issuing warnings in late January, he said. (Emphasis added.)
Somehow my first time through the story, the significance of the fact that warnings were going out in January about Redoubt escaped me. Just consider this: a volcano in Alaska gave signs of erupting way back in January. I would have to assume that this is the kind of information that would be given to the governor, Sarah Palin.
And yet, despite this pending eruption, the one example Jindal gave of a wasteful allocation of taxpayer money was "something called 'volcano monitoring.'" Coincidence? Perhaps. Evidence of the ineptitude of Jindal's team for failing to do basic investigation about the subject? Absolutely. Devious plan by Sarah Palin to make Jindal look bad? Seems like it could be conceivable.
Now, if you wouldn't mind, I'd like to shift this diary a bit to show to Governor Jindal and anyone else who might question the need for "something called 'volcano monitoring'" why it's so vitally important.
So I mentioned that the Department of the Interior planned on spending some of its earliest money on volcano monitoring. I did a little investigation to see how the new system works. From a Department of the Interior Press Release, this is how that monitoring money will be spent:
$15.2 million to modernize equipment in the National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) at all USGS volcano observatories. The U.S. and its territories include some of the most volcanically-active regions in the world, with 169 active volcanoes. As many as 54 of these potentially dangerous volcanoes need improved monitoring.
Well, "NVEWS" sounds a lot better than "Something called 'volcano monitoring'" if nothing else. What's this system all about? Well, let's refer to the fact sheet (pdf) for more details:
Waiting until unrest escalates at a volcano then reacting to improve sparse monitoring arrays results in the loss of precious time and data as scientists, civil authorities, citizens, and businesses play "catch up" with a dangerous force of nature. NVEWS is a proposal to address monitoring needs at potentially dangerous volcanoes that have inadequate ground-based monitoring or none at all and to move beyond a reactive approach to mitigating volcanic risk. The most hazardous volcanoes would be properly monitored well in advance of the onset of activity, making it possible for scientists to improve the timeliness and accuracy of hazard forecasts and for citizens to take proper and timely action to reduce risk.
The first step in developing NVEWS was a systematic assessment of (1) threats posed by U.S. volcanoes to human life and enterprise, (2) current monitoring capabilities at each volcano, and (3) improvements necessary to fill the worst monitoring gaps. The NVEWS assessment, published in 2005, shows that a few volcanoes are relatively well monitored with telemetered instrument arrays of various types. Many other volcanoes are monitored primarily by a network of sparsely distributed seismic instruments that lack the sensitivity to detect the subtle earthquakes that commonly characterize the earliest stages of unrest. Some hazardous volcanoes have no ground-based monitoring whatsoever. (Emphasis added)
Yikes. So there are a lot of volcanoes that could erupt and are not being monitored? Well, let's take a look:
So of the volcanoes that the USGS (United States Geological Survey) considers a "very high threat," a full 50% of them have "limited" or "minimal" monitoring. And only a small percentage are "well monitored."
The volcanoes pose a threat to Alaska and much of the Western United States.
The highest priority volcanoes are these:
So as you can see, there are a lot of volcanoes that pose big threats to vast swaths of this country. The NVEWS is trying to help ensure more volcanoes are monitored with a wide-ranging multi-pronged approach.
And we're not dealing with highly experimental untested science here or anything. In fact, scientists have devised a very specific way of calculating the threat posed by a volcano at any given time.
Volcano monitoring in the past has proven itself very effective. Early monitoring systems detected seismic activity in Mount Redoubt as early as January, a full two months before the volcano erupted. Fortunately, monitoring systems were in place at this particular volcano. But as the data above shows, the same cannot be said for a lot of other high-threat volcanoes.
The announcement by the Department of the Interior that they will be spending some of their first stimulus money on expanding the NVEWS system is definitely good news and will be going toward a proven, effective way to save lives by predicting potentially devastating natural disasters.
I can't imagine how anyone on Bobby Jindal's team would, even with the most cursory investigation, choose this system as the issue to raise in terms of wasteful spending. It would explain a lot if Sarah Palin had any input into his speech somehow. Either that, or God just hates Republicans.