WDBJ-7 in Roanoke, VA is out with a new poll for the 2009 Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia. Terry McAuliffe has jumped into the lead, with Senator Creigh Deeds and Delegate Brian Moran tied for second:
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
22% Deeds
38% McAuliffe
22% Moran
18% Other / Undecided
McAuliffe and, to a lesser extent, Deeds have improved their position, while Moran has faded some. But there is more to consider from these numbers.
WDBJ also asked which candidate voters would prefer in a matchup with Republican candidate, and former attorney general, Bob McDonnell. McDonnell leads all three, but Senator Deeds fares best in a matchup:
Asked of 409 likely Democratic primary voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.9%
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
22% Deeds
38% McAuliffe
22% Moran
18% Other / Undecided
Asked of 1396 registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.7%
Regardless of what you told us about the June 9th primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November... If the only two names on the ballot for Governor of Virginia were Republican Bob McDonnell and ... [Democrat], who would you vote for?
44% McDonnell (R)
39% Deeds (D)
17% Undecided
46% McDonnell (R)
39% McAuliffe (D)
15% Undecided
46% McDonnell (R)
34% Moran (D)
19% Undecided
McDonnell enjoys only a five point lead against Deeds, while he enjoys a seven point lead against McAuliffe, and a twelve point lead against Moran. To be sure, a hypothetical matchup poll in April is not going to determine the race's outcome. But it worth considering as we come closer to the Democratic primary.
Brian Moran was the front-runner for much of this race, but it seems clear to me that his star has faded considerably. Terry McAuliffe has all the momentum, but as one with no elected experience, some questionable associates (i.e. Global Crossing), and little more than money and organization, he comes with his own baggage. Creigh Deeds came agonizingly close to defeating McDonnell four years ago, and has the experience of a statewide race under his belt, but he also hails from a vote-poor area of the Commonwealth.
I've made no secret of the fact that I believe Creigh Deeds to be our best option. And while I wish to reiterate that we cannot read too much into this kind of poll, I do think Deeds is starting to pick up steam. I encourage everyone to check out his website at deedsforvirginia.com.