According to the CDC, regular flus kill 36,000 of about 300 million Americans on average every year. Apply that to Mexico City's population of 20 million, and you've got an annual death rate of 2,400. Assuming flu season is 8 months, that's 300 a month from regular flu. So why the panic over what MIGHT POSSIBLY BE 150 deaths over a few months in that city? Sounds below normal to me.
And for that the CDC put in a warning against all "non-essential" Mexican travel until JULY 27, 2009! Why the whole country? Why three months?
Thousands have died of flu this year in the US since January, but that was regular flu. Where were the travel bans, headlines and quarantines? OK, I get it, this is a new virus so it COULD POTENTIALLY BE DANGEROUS. But why are we causing panic when, to quote Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, New York City's Health Commissioner: "Right now we have no evidence that this is more severe than a garden variety flu in New York City today."
We in Puerto Vallarta are dying. Not from swine flu, because no one here has it. But from a dead town caused by excessive government reactions to media-inspired panic over a non-existent problem. Our cinemas, bars, club, gyms and restaurants (after 10:30pm) are closed down. Our US company may lose a month's revenue to travel restrictions and for what benefit? New York City has more cases than we do.
It's fine to be careful, and better safe than sorry, I get it. But we're already suffering from a lousy economy. Our potential hotel guests are being scared off from a CDC announcing a travel ban through July 27 for the entire country! Airlines are cancelling flights through June 1! I expect by next Wednesday, May 6, everyone will realize this was all an overreaction. But by then the damage is done economically.
THE CDC SHOULD IMMEDIATELY FOCUS THE TRAVEL RECOMMENDATION TO BE FOR MEXICO CITY (AND PERHAPS CANCUN) ONLY, FOR JUST ONE MONTH. Then they can re-evaluate it every week to see if it needs to be extended or widened based on actual cases of transmission. Only this is justified by the epidimiology, not 3 months for the entire country. What basis does the CDC have to say that cancelling a July visit to Puerto Vallarta today is warranted given the information known? And at the same time, the CDC complains that a European travel ban to the US is "premature"?
This overreaction also has real implications to our health. Time Magazine says today:
But if and when the CDC gives the go-ahead, companies such as Sanofi will have to do an about-face, scrapping their current vaccine projects to switch to swine flu.
Do we really want manufacturers to stop vaccine production for known flus that can kill and start producing a swine flu vaccine as a reaction to panic? Wasn't this done in 1976 and the results were awful?
The media needs to stop hyperventilating and causing panic over every single issue (DRUG WARS!!! Don't go to Mexico or you'll be killed! SWINE FLU!! Panic! SALMONELLA OUTBREAK!! Stop eating fresh vegetables!). Stop practicing lazy pack journalism and start investigating. If you have nothing original to add don't print another article reguritating the same uninformed crap with your name on it! The statistics above are easily available to anyone, but I haven't seen them reported anywhere to put the problem in Mexico City in perspective.
Finally, let's not let this warning blow over and then go back to cutting pandemic preparation for the real thing. Too much panic, too short of an attention span, too little follow-up action to address REAL problems. When will we learn??
Write the CDC at cdcinfo@cdc.gov if you agree.