As I'm sure many of you similarly have, I received an email this afternoon from the Courage Campaign asking for voters to decide when they should go back to the ballot to restore marriage equality: 2010 or 2012? Unfortunately after voting they didn't have a running tally so you could see how, others agreed or disagreed, or comments arguing one way or the other. I chose 2012 for the following reasons, but I wanted to know what others thought.
I think there will be the urge to put it on the ballot for 2010 due to two reasons: The disheartening effect the 2008 ballot initiative had, and the string of successes in other states. While I understand this, I think it should be in 2012 for a few reasons.
One, the forces that brought Prop 8 to the ballot in 2008 are still keyed up and have an infrastructure not only ready to go, but still mobilized. Give some time for passions to die down, and it may be harder for them to find the same level of support in 2012. At the very least they'll have to put in more resources getting their phone banks, lobbying efforts, etc, back up and running.
Two, that string of successes (Iowa, Maine, soon to be D.C. and others) I think is going to snowball. As more people across the nation become comfortable with the idea of marriage equality, it will be easier to fight for equality in California. It's not going to be an easy fight either way, so you want as many odds in your favor as possible.
Three, it will be a national re-election year. More people will be coming to the ballot box. While this means more people for both sides, it also means you have an opportunity to sway people that otherwise would not be voting.
Four, as horrible as this sounds, the clock of life is on your side. If what I understand is true, many of the people who voted against marriage equality were the elderly. I am NOT in ANY way gleeful at the idea of people dying, it is a fact that the elderly do die. The population that was against human rights may be reduced in numbers more significantly in 2012 than in 2010 because of this.
P.S. You can donate to their campaign here.