This afternoon, the Urban Institute released a new report entitled Health Reform: The Cost of Failure.
http://www.urban.org/...
The report goes into detail on how many people would be uninsured, how many would be pushed into Medicaid, and how many would lose employer coverage if we FAIL to get a health reform package enacted that expands coverage and reduces the growth of health costs.
The report is detailed and wonky, using a statistical model to predict the result of allowing the health system to continue on its current track. Some block quotes from their conclusions below.
The authors study the near-term future of health costs (the next 10 years) under three scenarios:
- Worst case—slow growth in incomes and continuing high growth rates for health care costs;
- Intermediate case—somewhat faster growth in incomes, but a lower growth rate for health care costs;
- Best case—full employment, faster income growth, and even slower growth in health care costs.
Their results?
In the worst case scenario, the number of uninsured Americans would increase to 57.7 million in 2014 and to 65.7 million in 2019. In the best case, the number grows to 53.1 million in 2014 and 57 million in 2019.
Based on the likely impact of the recession so far (extrapolating forward from 2007 data), the study estimates that there are 49 million uninisured people in 2009.
The authors also note the employer-based coverage is likely to continue to erode absent health reform, and that the number of people depending on public programs like Medicaid and CHIP (the Children's Health Insurance Program) will continue to rise.
Their conclusions?
...health reform will no doubt prove hard to enact. There are many issues in dispute that could cause health reform efforts to fail. This paper provides evidence that there will also be a large cost to failure.
In my opinion, a good read for people interested in health insurance statistics, and an important cautionary note during this window of opportunity for change.