The latest twist in the Brett Favre retirement soap opera (Is he going to play for the Vikings? Is his shoulder healed up enough to play? Will there be a border war between Wisconsin and Minnesota if he's seen in the dreaded purple and gold?) made me think of other foreseeable disasters. Namely upping the war in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is where empires go to to die. Great Britain did, the Soviet Union did and we will too if we dump more money and troops into it. It is impossible to win militarily. The British found this out when they lost bitterly not once, but twice to the Afghans. They spent over 50 years, from the First Anglo-Afghan War of 1838–1842, to the Second Anglo-Afghan War of 1878–1880, trying to take it over. In one battle, 16,000 troops went in, only to all perish, except one. And we all know how Afghanistan became a sinkhole for the Soviet Union that lead to its' break-up.
You can't defeat the Taliban military. Not with drones or tanks or any other weaponry. Follow the money. The Taliban is a big business that is being funded by rich donors, the Saudis (yes, still), and opium. Cut off the money. Sit on the Saudis and make them understand that they can no longer bribe terrorists to stay out of their country. The Saudis are living in fear of the demographic time bomb that is about to explode. They have too many unemployed young men who growing very frustrated. Get them to realize that it is in their own best interests to start building a real economy, not this la-la land of oil profits.
Get the farmers off of opium production. Based on UNODC data, there has been more opium poppy cultivation in each of the past four growing seasons (2004-2007), than in any one year during Taliban rule. Also, more land is now used for opium in Afghanistan, than for coca cultivation in Latin America. In 2007, 93% of the opiates on the world market originated in Afghanistan. This amounts to an export value of about $4 billion, with a quarter being earned by opium farmers and the rest going to district officials, insurgents. Get the farmers back to traditional crops so they can feed themselves but not the conflict.