I had a thought that I wanted to share with you all.
I know that the prevailing view is that, despite all that has been said about the importance of the strong public option, we are this close to getting screwed out of it. If things go as they are appear to be going, this would be a fair assumption.
But let's look at the landscape again. What's missing here?
Here are the four key facts:
- Reconciliation instructions were included that require a budget bill with health care included by October 15.
- The key committees involved are run by centrists.
- Obama wants a "bipartisan bill"
- Reid is willing to throw bipartisanship to the wind, and Obama staked out his turf (and popularity) behind a public option
(Unlike a lot of folks here, I think the co-op plan, if carefully crafted, could work in a way that is similar to Germany's system, but that's neither here nor there.)
But what else could be happening here?
I know it's not in vogue to respect Obama's political skills, but it is my theory that things associated with Barack Obama tend not to happen by accident.
My guess as to what the White House war room is thinking is this: the public option is popular, but it's uncertain to pass. We can't lose the left on this, because they would stay home in 2010 and we would lose our majority. But we MUST appear to be evenhanded and bipartisan.
So what to do?
Get the GOP on record doing what they do best. Saying NO.
So what they will do is let the bill get to the point that it is just short of passing. Probably the best way to do this is to leave the bill with a weak public option, but let it be a public option, so that the GOP will say no.
Then, Obama will threaten to veto it when the Senate GOP tries/announces its attempt to filibuster. Then absolutely let loose on them, accusing them of being the party of no everywhere, all the time.
Then, say, well, we TRIED to work with the GOP but ONCE again, we got screwed. Fuck bipartisanship; it's time for reconciliation.
And then they take their chances on reconciliation because the parliamentarian will likely let the Byrd rule slide because he/she works for the President of the Senate, one Joseph R. Biden.
I'm not saying it's happening, just grant me that it could. And it would be smart politics that is totally within the control of the White House.
"Party of No" is a dangerous and powerful meme, one that has the ability to both unite and divide the GOP all at once. But remember, how can we get to that spot? By being "bipartisan" and "compromising".
I may have egg on my face before this is all over, but if Obama is good at anything, it's politics.