As you may know, if the appointment of Congressman McHugh to Secretary of the Army is confirmed by Congress there will be an election to fill the vacant seat. This gives us another chance to add to our congressional majority. It is a bit early but I'd like to explore some of the potential Democratic candidates, as well as some of the potential Republican opposition.
As Steve Singiser pointed out in his Political Wrap-Up there is the potential for a special election, rather than leaving the election to the next election season. I believe that the makeup of the possible candidates will be pretty different between those two options, so I'm going to focus now on a special election as the more likely possibility. In a special election in this state, the state parties decide who each candidate will be. Therefore, I will look at who might make a good appointment for an election.
Governor Paterson will have to decide between waiting for an election, or having a special election once McHugh is confirmed. Though it will certainly cost money to have one, I do like being represented in congress.
In an article linked in the aforementioned diarist's diary, the following assertion is made:
Meanwhile, on the Dem side, state Sen. Darrel Aubertine appears to be the 800-pound gorilla in the race. If he passes it up, the bench is rather bare.
Let's explore Darrel Aubertine for a minute. He is the current state senator for New York's 48th State Senate district, which overlaps a great deal with NY-23. He won the seat back in February, and held on to it in November. He has weathered a great deal of negative advertising, a lot of which I saw in the form of fliers in the mail from his opponent Dave Renzi. Now, there are a few reasons I don't want to see Aubertine run in this district.
As that article mentioned, we only control the state senate by two votes. Even though Aubertine has said he will vote NO for the upcoming same-sex marriage bill, he is procedurally needed in the Senate. His saying that is not a surprise, because as has been mentioned before this district is heavily Republican. It is disappointing, but in terms of Democrats, this district is not likely to elect anyone better than a moderate. I'll take moderate Democrat though over a arch-conservative Republican any day. Personally I feel our party's success is built greatly on our acceptance of moderates, but that is a debate for another time.
So I say, let's put Aubertine aside. I don't think he should run, not only because of what I mentioned before, but because there are some better candidates.
According to CQ, there are a few other names throwing their names in the hat.
But other Democrats pointed to state Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine, Syracuse attorney Daniel J. French, 2008 nominee Michael P. Oot, state party Chairwoman June O’Neill and John Rhodes, who considered a 2008 run, as possible contenders.
Now, I don't know much about French or Rhodes. I live in the district and haven't heard of either of them. That isn't to say they wouldn't be good candidates, but I also can't find much info online about them. Michael Oot isn't bad, but I am not confident in his ability to run a major campaign, seeing as he barely campaigned against McHugh in '08. Since I am focusing on a potential special election, I'm gonna try and focus on a couple of names I feel have the right name recognition in the community, a decent progressive focus, good experience to draw on for the position, and who I think would have a chance to pull it off.
Now they also mention June O'Neill, who I feel would be an amazing candidate for the job. She has been the chair of our state Democratic party the last couple of years, and lead our takeover of the state Senate. She has been a county legislator in one of the counties that this district covers, and now lives in another part of the district. She is also a pretty good speaker. The state Democratic website goes into detail. I think she could get the state establishment behind her while appealing to the people of NY-23.
Another name has been talked about since the release of that article. Former Assistant Attorney General John Sullivan has expressed interest in running as well. I think he would also be a strong candidate for a special election. He has been mayor of Oswego, the county seat of one of the counties in NY-23, and spent his time as AAG in Watertown which is the largest city in the district. He currently works as Deputy Inspector General for Medicaid in the state.
Dave Valesky has also been mentioned as a possibility, though for the same reasons as Aubertine should not be considered. His senate district also overlaps NY-23, but he is also part of our tenuous hold on the state Senate. He hasn't said yes or no yet regarding the same-sex marriage bill, so he might even do some good beyond the procedural kind.
Personally, I think O'Neill is the strongest Democrat for the position, and the most well placed to run. I think Sullivan would be a good candidate as well though. In his free time outside of governmental work, he taught a college political science course which I happened to have been a student in, so I can say from personal experience that he is a very intelligent guy.
Now as for the potential opposition, from the previously mentioned CQ article.
A slew of Republican names also surfaced Tuesday: Assembly members Will Barclay, who lost to Aubertine for the Senate seat, Janet L. Duprey and Dede Scozzafava; Terry Gach, vice president of institutional advancement at the Trudeau Institute; Michael F. Joyce, the head of Hargrave Custom Yachts; former state Sen. Jim Wright; and Franklin County District Attorney Derek Champagne.
New York Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb noted that there are seven Republican-held assembly districts with pieces of McHugh’s congressional district and said any one of those lawmakers would make a good candidate for the seat.
The field is wide open, though I expect Will Barclay to go for it. He doesn't have a senate seat to lose, but is already recognized throughout the district. He did lose an election in a heavily Republican district to a Democrat though, so I don't know if they will go with him. There is a much bigger field of possibilities on the Republican side, and aside from Barclay and Wright, none that seem to float to the top just now.
Now, if this goes to a general election, then this will be decided in a primary. Though I feel that a general election with a primary would allow someone without as much general recognition to more easily gain popularity, the election of Scott Murphy in NY-20 shows that the county chairs could very well go with someone less politically experienced and win a special election. I've tried to look at some of the possible names that seem likely now, but maybe there is another Murphy we could go with.