There were two major stories that broke over the weekend in Wisconsin politics. First, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett was assaulted Saturday night leaving the state fair when he confronted a man who was trying to assault another woman. He was apparently beaten with a metal pipe and will be in the hospital until Tuesday. Thoughts are with him and his family as he recovers.
The second story is that Gov. Doyle is going to make the announcement today (updated 11:20, it's official) that he’s not running for reelection in 2010. It’s been rumored for months that this was going to happen, and that he may take a job in the Obama administration or be appointed to the federal bench, but it looks like the rumors are true. Beyond the "why" of his decision are the ramifications of it as we’re under 18 months away from the election.
There were two major stories that broke over the weekend in Wisconsin politics. First, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett was assaulted Saturday night leaving the state fair when he confronted a man who was trying to assault another woman. He was apparently beaten with a metal pipe and will be in the hospital until Tuesday. Thoughts are with him and his family as he recovers.
The second story is that Gov. Doyle is going to make the announcement today (updated 11:20, it's official) that he’s not running for reelection in 2010. It’s been rumored for months that this was going to happen, and that he may take a job in the Obama administration or be appointed to the federal bench, but it looks like the rumors are true. Beyond the "why" of his decision are the ramifications of it as we’re under 18 months away from the election.
Obviously, the Republicans are pleased that they won’t have to face Doyle or his considerable campaign war chest. Many Democrats may also be pleased as well since Gov. Doyle isn’t the most popular politician in the State right now, and they see the chance to perhaps put forward a candidate who won’t have to deal with the baggage Doyle had.
First, the Democrats... The obvious names have surfaced as possible contenders for the 2010 race. Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, Rep. Ron Kind, and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Of the three, Lawton and Barrett probably have the best name ID state wide, but some consider Lawton too far to the "left" and Barrett faces the problem of being from Milwaukee which is something that has plagued candidates for state wide office. Neither have the war chest that Doyle does, and whoever decides to throw their hat in the ring will have to step up the fundraising in very short order to match the head start a few of the Republican candidates have. Regardless, as a Democrat I’m looking forward to having a good primary process and seeing who comes out ahead.
On the Republican side, it might seem at first like great news for County Exec. Scott Walker, considered the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. The Walker campaign though faces a pretty serious problem of having to retool their entire campaign strategy. They had planned - and up until now were focused on - making this a campaign against Gov. Doyle and his record. With Doyle out of the picture now, Walker can’t simply focus on being "against" the current administration and will have to run on his own record. A lot of the steam behind his candidacy was as the "anti Doyle" candidate, and I’m sure his staff is burning the midnight oil right now to adjust.
The other major GOP candidate Mark Neumann is probably the one who benefits most from Doyle not running in 2010. Up until this point, he has mostly been running as his own candidate who’s platform wasn’t tied to being "against" anything in particular, but in favor of traditional Republican ideals. As such, there’s not much readjustment needed from the Neumann campaign if Gov. Doyle does in fact decide not to run in 2010.
The other winners on the GOP side may be any undeclared candidates who were just willing to sit out this race knowing that they’d face a twice elected Governor with a considerable amount of money in the bank. It will be interesting to see if any more Republicans decide to jump into the race now that the field is wide open for the first time since 1982.