Kos had this to say earlier:
This is the Democrats' key issue. If they can't do the right thing here, there will be little choice left for us than to continue our efforts to rid ourselves of the corporatist hacks that infest our party. No one ever said this was going to be quick and easy.
While this is true, it seems to me that the Democrats face a much greater danger if they can't get this done: apathy.
The power behind Obama's election to the presidency and a national shift created a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and an overwhelming majority in the House is that of eager activists. People who, since roughly 2004, have been promised change if only we could get Democrats the power they needed. We volunteered, wrote checks, generally did everything we could to give Democrats the tools they needed to get the job done.
The trouble is that on an issue with a clear public mandate, it is increasingly looking like Democrats are not going to get the job done. Talk of a public option went from a borderline promise to being framed as but a small part of overall reform. If we get a bill out of the conference committee without a robust public option, then what are we supposed to do?
Why Fear The Primary?
Kos suggests that the biggest threat Democrats face is from angry progressives running primaries against the corporatist Democrats who have largely sold us out. This is clearly part of the threat that those Democrats face, but consider that in 2008, the big year of change, exactly ZERO incumbents lost primary challenges. The power of incumbency with all of the party apparatus behind you is enormous.
To be clear, I'm not saying we should just give up, but I am saying that we simply aren't that scary to them. I'd love to see somebody like Max Baucus go away, but the likelihood of him being ousted by a more progressive primary opponent is very slim. Please please prove me wrong!
The Real Thing To Fear: Apathy
The reality is that a lot of the people who have become Democrats in recent years are ultimately reluctant. They are people who became Democrats because they saw what Republicans were doing to the country and didn't know where else to turn. These are the kinds of people who went and voted for Nader in 2000, thinking Democrats were no better than Republicans.
My prediction is that if Democrats cave on the public option, that we will see a wave of apathy. People who fought really hard for Democrats are going to throw their hands up and say, "why bother?" Do we need a 70 seat majority? Do we need another 8, 12, 16 years of favoring progressives over corporatists? Frankly do we have that kind of time?
The result in 2010 and 2012 will be a stronger performance by Republicans because their base is more energized. All that hope and change that was trumpeted in 2008 will be seen as a giant pile of bullshit. Maybe Obama wins again in 2012, but then in 2016 when you've got a bunch of apathetic voters thinking, once again, that Democrats are no better, the consequences will be terrible.