This is the third diary I've written about possibly the most wretched place on earth; the Horn of Africa. The tribes of the Puntland area, once peaceful fishermen, became pirates to support themselves and their clans. Asian and European commercial fishing corporations have stripped and trashed what used to be one of the richest sea bounties on the planet, ruining the ecology of the seas, and ruining the economy of the Puntland peoples. To make up for it, Europe routinely dumps their toxic waste in the waters off Puntland because, well, because they can; there's no country to stop them anymore.
And now, al-qaeda is back, selling themselves as hired killers.
There's no conclusions to be made in this diary, just an update so if it comes to pass that the US begins active military actions well past the tasking of US-led CTF151, DK readers are not wondering why.
Almost all of al-qaeda left Pakistan when the going got too hot. There's still some dead-enders there, mostly natives trained and staying to the bitter end. The high profile story was Sheikh Issa bugging out to Syria in June 2009 and consolidating control of the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq (more local dead-enders) to refocus the group's efforts to destabilize the Iraqi government.
Al-qaeda is also pretty much gone from Af'stan. What remains is a fight with the Taliban and tribes aligned with them in a bid to retake the country. Again, native dead-enders. Although in Af'stan's history it never pays to bet against the home team.
So where did al-qaeda go? Yemen and Somalia, back where many of them came from originally. They are hiring themselves out to warlords, and setting up shop, in particular in Somalia, which has no organized state. As trained terrorists, local warlords prize their ferocity, and willingly hire them out as mercenaries. At the same time, al-qaeda is setting up new training camps to increase their numbers once again.
Piracy, which was on the upswing while CTF151 was practicing "catch and release" in an effort to build some lines of communications with the Puntland pirates, has now nose-dived. That was before CTF151 had a place to put pirates. CTF151 has switched tactics to "catch and send to Kenya for imprisonment". Kenya is a relatively stable country, with a very small Muslim population (mainly Somalis and Arab) that is now grappling with what to do with over 110 pirates.
Puntland and Somaliland comprise the northern third of Somalia, and at this point can be considered separate states, albeit highly disorganized, violent, and fracturing. Stable, compared to the southern two-thirds, which has been in perpetual anarchy since the 1990's Blackhawk-down days.
A U.S. commando operation killed five al Qaeda terrorists in southern Somalia on September 14th in a highly coordinated operation that required on-the-ground intel. Because al Shabaab has imposed the strictest form of Sharia Islamic law, they are becoming increasingly unpopular in southern Somalia. Our military reportedly captured two of the al-qaeda (remains unconfirmed), and if that is true, will interrogate them to obtain further information about who is where, and why.
Ethiopia the odd ally in this fight. They have proven to be fiercely resistant to Somali/al-qaeda aggression, have occupied disputed Ogaden territory to keep the peace as they see fit, and have effectively prevented al-qaeda from expanding it's influence westward. Ethiopia has a record of rigged elections, oppression of people in the Ogaden area, and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has consolidated power, imprisoning political opposition leaders.
The war againt terror, against al-qaeda, is now back in Somalia and Yemen, yet US focus remains on Af'stan and Iraq. Whether or not we should be nation building is fodder for another diary, but the war against terror, because it is not against a fixed nation per se, is looking like it will expand yet again, as we leave assets in place in Iraq, build up forces in Af'stan, and now are beginning to address the Horn of Africa.
Al-qaeda has proven to be a cagey enemy. In every country they insinuate themselves into and then flee from as the US chases them, they leave behind a local, trained, gang of dead-enders able to tie up some more of our limited military resources. By jumping from chaos to chaos, it makes the US commit military assets (and associated costs) in country after country. In response, the US has ended up with two nation building efforts, our country split as to how and what should be done moving forward, and an increasing huge price tag attached to it all when we can least afford it.