Folks, we've devolved into more meta about the President's recent appeal to turn out the vote in 2010. And I suppose that is OK, for what it is worth, but I wanted to comment on the actual substance of the President's message.
For years, those of us involved with progressive causes, and in particular, progressive Democratic political strategy, have been confounded by the traditional field program we have gotten out of the DNC and state parties when it comes to non-Presidential elections. Indeed, as Jim Hightower pointed out about the 1994 electoral disaster, had state parties spent event 1/10th of the money on GOTV for getting more Ds that voted in Presidential years than non-Presidential ones to come to the polls, we'd never have suffered big losses like when did in '94.
And that's what makes the President's strategy so refreshing and intriguing. It's a bet he's making with us...and we need to double down on it.
Obama's political machine in terms of field work in the 2008 campaign was unmatched. And if you read from the Book of Plouffe, you'd know that the bet was on expanding the electoral map, and increasing the electoral audience of voters, turning out as many new voters as they could. And they were damn successful.
Now, you can argue as to whether enough of those new voters are disgruntled enough to simply stay home this November. There is probably evidence to back that up. But I'm willing to bet the vast majority of those voters just need a good full prod, reminder of what is at stake, and a lot of GOTV.
That's the bet is the President is making, and I'm going to take him up on it.
Let me just run the numbers from my own County. In 2008, we had over 35,000 Democrats who voted who didn't vote in 2006, the last off-Presidential year/Statewide election we had. Of that number, fully a 1/3 of those Democrats -- over 12,000 -- were newly registered voters.
Which gets the brain whirring...if I can turn out just 10% of those voters in 2010 -- 3,500 more D votes than we had in 2006 -- we'll beat back any Republican threat.
Don't think so? Yeah, I know. 10% isn't a lot. But in a swing county like mine, believe it or not, that 10% is the difference. Between a Republican County Executive and a Democratic one. Between one Republican State Senator, two Republican State Delegates, and two Republican County Councilmen and Democratic ones.
It's a simple bet, really. Turn out the new voters. And get them to vote this year. And I refuse to believe that all of the new voters who came to the polls because of President Obama are so disgruntled that they are all going to stay home in November.
At least, I believe, 10% of them won't.
Say what you will about the President's policies and whether they are progressive enough for you, but when it comes to the electoral game, he's finally doing what progressives have said for some time...go after the base. His base. His voters. And get them to the polls. The Party can stop obsessing about the "persuadable" vote and leave that to the candidates themselves. We can go after the low hanging fruit...and get them to vote.
And excuse the friggin' pun, but that is change I can believe in. Finally.
UPDATED: Sorry I can't stay and chat some more, but I was just informed that our annual County Democratic Dinner scheduled for this Thursday just topped over 400 paid guests...the most we've had in at least four years, maybe more. So, I got some seating charts to pour over, but if this is any indication...motivation in our base isn't going to be as big a problem as we think. Thanks.