Now that the Supreme Court derby has its latest contestant, all eyes turn to the august upper chamber of the US Congress, which will take a timeout from being the clogged drain in the bathtub of government to debate the nomination. Elena Kagan is currently the Solicitor General, having been confirmed to that post just last year, so there's a fairly recent voting record on her; that same year saw another Obama nominee join the court, likewise with a few Republican votes. So, which Republicans are likely based on those votes to endorse Kagan in 2010?
The Kagan Seven:
1. Tom Coburn
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Oklahoma
Since: 2005
Why he will vote for Kagan: Can you predict with 100% certainty what this man will do on any given day?
Why he won't: Do you really need to ask?
2. Susan Collins
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Maine
Since: 1997
Why she will vote for Kagan: Voted for Sotomayor last year, is probably the sort who isn't overly opposed to Kagan anyway, and she and Snowe have the least to fear from primary challenges and the most to lose from being seen as intractably conservative.
Why she won't: Of the Maine duo, the more likely to bow to party pressure for unity in opposition.
3. Judd Gregg
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: New Hampshire
Since: 1993
Why he will vote for Kagan: He voted for Sotomayor, and he's retiring anyway, so what can they do to him?
Why he won't: Doesn't have to bother with political considerations, probably has an eye on keeping in the good graces of Republican-owned businesses that will be helping him earn lots of money in the future.
4. Orrin Hatch
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Utah
Since: 1977
Why he will vote for Kagan: Hatch is senior enough to remember the days when both parties' nominees still got large numbers of the opposite parties' votes, and he voted for both Ginsburg and Breyer.
Why he won't:
5. Jon Kyl
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Arizona
Since: 1995
Why he will vote for Kagan: Dunno, he voted for her before and would want to be consistent?
Why he won't: Didn't vote for Sotomayor, and his fellow Arizonan Republican is currently weathering a nasty primary challenge.
6. Dick Lugar
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Indiana
Since: 1977
Why he will vote for Kagan: He voted for Sotomayor; he's the senior Republican in the Senate now and since Indiana doesn't have Utah's caucus system, he's probably not too worried about primary challenges; he's generally moderate in temperament (if not in his politics, which are solidly conservative).
Why he won't: Is still a conservative Republican from Indiana.
7. Olympia Snowe
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Maine
Since: 1995
Why she will vote for Kagan: The same reasons as Collins, and she's the more liberal of the two.
Why she won't: Has voted party-line a lot recently on major issues.
There are also the senators who gave the thumbs-up to Sotomayor last year, but who didn't vote for Kagan's confirmation to be Solicitor General. They are:
1. Lamar Alexander
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Tennessee
Since: 2003
Why he will vote for Kagan: He was probably the biggest surprise among the pro-Sotomayor Republicans, so he may repeat the trick here.
Why he won't: Voted against Kagan already, he's in a fairly conservative state and has probably got his eye on the party base.
2. Christopher Bond
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Missouri
Since: 1987
Why he will vote for Kagan: Voted for Sotomayor, and he's retiring, so electoral politics isn't on the mind.
Why he won't: Conversely, he doesn't need to bother about appearing moderate.
3. Lindsey Graham
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: South Carolina
Since: 2003
Why he will vote for Kagan: Has some record of inter-party cooperation, and he voted for Sotomayor.
Why he won't: The aforementioned issues have caused quite a few rumbles of discontent back home.
4. Mel Martinez
Thought the greatest state in the Union was: Florida
From: 2005-2009
Why he won't vote for Kagan: Because he isn't in the Senate anymore. Duh.
5. George Voinovich
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Ohio
Since: 1999
Why he will vote for Kagan: He voted for Sotomayor, generally has a moderate temparement, and is retiring.
Why he won't: Voted against her already.
And, the wildcards:
1. Scott Brown
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Massachusetts
Since: 2010
Why he will vote for Kagan: Recognizing electoral reality, he's been cutting ties with the people who helped elect him in the hopes of actually staying in the Senate long-term.
Why he won't: May be trying to mitigate any fallout from those groups.
2. George Lemieux
Thinks the greatest state in the Union is: Florida
Since: 2009
Why he will vote for Kagan: Like his boss and former presumptive successor, he seems reasonably centrist.
Why he won't: Would very much like to run for the Senate full-time in 2012, and the fate of said former presumed successor/boss suggests pissing off Teabaggers isn't a good way to go about getting the Republican Senate nomination in Florida.
My predictions for Yea votes:
Bond
Brown
Collins
Gregg
Lugar
Snowe
Voinovich
Graham and Lemieux might also be possibilities.