This is the first installment of a feature I’ve done in the past. It is a ranking of the composite ratings of House races by the four major rating organizations—the Cook Report, the Rothenberg Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Congressional Quarterly—plus the top 25 list produced by National Journal. These races are listed in order of most likely to flip to the other party to least. As discussed more fully below, a historical analysis of these compilations suggests that if things remain exactly where they are now (i.e. if the election were held today), the Democrats would, on average lose a net of 19 seats.
Here is the methodology:
The Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg and Sabato use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), and the National Journal ranks the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For the National Journal, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 25 list gets 25 points, #25 gets 1).
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean hold races, and 15 points for likely hold races. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean takeover, 60 points for a pure lean takeover, and 75 for a likely takeover. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean hold category.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Obviously, the higher a seat's total points, the more likely it is to change parties. I broke ties based on my own opinions about relative vulnerability. What is presented, in order, is a seat’s rank, its total score, its overall net rating, its rank among seats held by that party (i.e. where it falls on the target list), its partisan vote index (note: this is mine, not Cook’s. I have a slightly different methodology), the filing deadline and primary date, the D candidates with their financial information in parentheses, and the R candidates with their financial information in parentheses.
The raters are of varying levels of up-to-date-ness; Cook and Rothenberg have updated since Tuesday’s PA-12 special; CQ has not, but is generally up to date; Sabato has not updated since March and the NJ since early April. So, I tweaked some things (PA-12 being example 1) to reflect recent developments.
Here is the bottom line: I did this exercise all the way up to election day in 2006 and 2008. In comparing the final ratings to the results, I made the following observations:
-100% of the races ranked as likely takeover were won by the challenging party.
-95% of the races ranked as lean takeover were won by the challenging party (the lone exception was Don Young’s (R AK AL) win in 2008.
-44% of the races ranked as any of tossup/lean takeover, tossup, or tossup/lean hold were won by the challenging party. I did not see any significant variance among those classifications.
-26% of the races ranked as lean hold were won by the challenging party.
-1% of the races ranked as lean/likely hold, likely hold, or likely/safe hold were won by the challenging party (Dave Loebsack’s win in IA 02 in 2006).
Applying those probabilities to the below list which features 1 D seat ranked likely takeover, 4 D and 2 R seats ranked as lean takeover, 27 D seats and 1 R seat ranked in the tossup categories, 22 D seats and 4 R seats in the lean hold category, and 51 D seats and 27 R seats in the longshot categories, yields an R gain of 19.28. That is inflated, however, by the circumstances of Hawaii 1, which is lean takeover for the special election tomorrow, but is probably more likely than not to flip right back in November. So, I reduced that one to a .5 takeover possibility from .95, yielding a final number of 18.83.
A 19-seat loss, for what it’s worth, would be 1 more than the postwar midterm average for the President’s party and rank as one of the most successful for the defenders in a year where one party went in with control of the White House and both houses of Congress. These results have been (from most recent backwards):
-2006: GOP lost 30 seats and control
-1994: Dems lost 54 seats and control
-1978: Dems lost 15 seats
-1966: Dems lost 47 seats
-1962: Dems lost 3 seats
-1954: GOP lost 18.5 seats and control
-1950: Dems lost 28 seats
-1946: Dems lost 54.5 seats and control
A 19-seat loss would give the Dems a majority of 238-197, a net of 5 seats more than they had in the 2007-09 Congress.
Obviously, it’s early yet. The pattern in ’06 and ’08 was for more and more GOP seats to look more vulnerable as the election approached. The GOP is rooting for a similar trend their way this year (and a lot of the pundits are predicting it). But what I’ve seen suggests that the trend is the other way, and the reverse is at least as likely. Anyway, here is the list:
1. TN-06 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 325. Net rating: Likely R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 1. PVI: R+11. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 5-Aug. D candidate(s): H.Barry/ D.Butler/ B.Carter/ F.Conover/ G.Erdel/ M.Kelly/ B.Leming (Raised: x; CoH: x). R candidate(s): J.Tracy/ D.Black/ L.Zelenik/ D.Evans/ K.Roberts/ G.Mann/ K.McClellan (Raised: 534/ 485/ 433/ 68/ 34/ 6/ x; CoH: 440/ 444/ 370/ 13/ 11/ 0/ x).
2. LA-02 (Cao (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 279. Net rating: Lean D Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 1. PVI: D+25. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 28-Aug. D candidate(s): C.Richmond/ J.LaFonta (Raised: 409/ 187; CoH: 279/ 55). R candidate(s): J.Cao* (Raised: 1260; CoH: 309).
3. LA-03 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 277. Net rating: Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 2. PVI: R+10. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 28-Aug. D candidate(s): R.Sangisetty (Raised: 470; CoH: 372). R candidate(s): J.Landry/ C.Leopold/ K.Magar/ N.Monica (Raised: 273/ 63/ 30/ 0; CoH: 261/ 59/ 16/ 0).
4. DE-AL (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 263. Net rating: Lean D Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 2. PVI: D+6. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): J.Carney/ S.Spencer (Raised: 969/ x; CoH: 675/ x). R candidate(s): G.Urquhart/ K.Wade/ R.Izzo/ M.Rollins (Raised: 568/ 48/ 0/ x; CoH: 512/ 34/ 0/ x).
5. AR-02 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 252. Net rating: Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 3. PVI: R+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary Runoff: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): R.Wills/ J.Elliott (Raised: 385/ 169; CoH: 73/ 40). R candidate(s): T.Griffin (Raised: 603; CoH: 347).
6. HI-01 (VACANT (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 241. Net rating: Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 4. PVI: D+9. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 5/22 Special Election. D candidate(s): C.Hanabusa/ E.Case/ V.Browne (Raised: 1085/ 821/ x; CoH: 194/ 154/ x). R candidate(s): C.Djou/ J.Giuffre (Raised: 1070/ x; CoH: 363/ x).
7. KS-03 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 238. Net rating: Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 5. PVI: R+4. Filing Deadline: 10-Jun. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): S.Moore/ E.Gallup (Raised: 461/ x; CoH: 412/ x). R candidate(s): K.Yoder/ N.Jordan/ P.Lightner/ T.Scherer/ J.Rysavy/ C.McPherson/ D.Gilyeat/ D.King (Raised: 510/ 461/ 87/ 80/ 46/ 12/ 6/ 4; CoH: 478/ 180/ 43/ 0/ 17/ 0/ 0).
8. NY-29 (VACANT (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 231. Net rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 6. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): M.Zeller (Raised: x; CoH: x). R candidate(s): T.Reed (Raised: 482; CoH: 287).
9. NM-02 (Teague (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Net rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 7. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 1-Jun. D candidate(s): H.Teague* (Raised: 1197; CoH: 927). R candidate(s): S.Pearce/ C.Pirtle (Raised: 1038/ x; CoH: 709/ x).
10. OH-01 (Driehaus (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 225. Net rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 8. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): S.Driehaus* (Raised: 1179; CoH: 900). R candidate(s): S.Chabot (Raised: 959; CoH: 791).
11. MD-01 (Kratovil (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 224. Net rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 9. PVI: R+12. Filing Deadline: 6-Jul. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): F.Kratovil* (Raised: 1330; CoH: 1034). R candidate(s): A.Harris/ R.Fisher/ J.Ghrist/ M.Romblad (Raised: 979/ 135/ 0/ x; CoH: 704/ 91/ 0/ x).
12. OH-15 (Kilroy (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Net rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. Party Pickup Rank: 10. PVI: E. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): M.Kilroy* (Raised: 1436; CoH: 848). R candidate(s): S.Stivers (Raised: 979; CoH: 831).
13. MS-01 (Childers (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 214. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 11. PVI: R+13. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 1-Jun. D candidate(s): T.Childers* (Raised: 1043; CoH: 700). R candidate(s): A.Nunnelee/ H.Ross/ A.McGlowan (Raised: 580/ 111/ 38; CoH: 295/ 97/ 16).
14. IN-08 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 12. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): T.Van Haaften (Raised: 172; CoH: 134). R candidate(s): L.Bucshon (Raised: 262; CoH: 113).
15. CO-04 (Markey (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 13. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): B.Markey* (Raised: 1685; CoH: 1251). R candidate(s): C.Gardner/ T.Lucero/ D.Madere (Raised: 866/ 125/ x; CoH: 539/ 12/ x).
16. TN-08 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 203. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 14. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 5-Aug. D candidate(s): R.Herron/ K.Smith (Raised: 1176/ x; CoH: 1037/ x). R candidate(s): S.Fincher/ R.Kirkland/ G.Flinn/ J.Hart/ R.Smith/ B.Watts (Raised: 1031/ 857/ 263/ 8/ 0/ x; CoH: 829/ 780/ 124/ 1/ 1/ x).
17. VA-02 (Nye (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 201. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 15. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): G.Nye* (Raised: 1467; CoH: 1060). R candidate(s): S.Rigell/ B.Loyola/ B.Mizusawa/ S.Taylor/ E.Maulbeck/ J.Sandlin (Raised: 1075/ 890/ 398/ 58/ 46/ 9; CoH: 620/ 92/ 286/ 8/ 18/ 2).
18. VA-05 (Perriello (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 200. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 16. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): T.Perriello* (Raised: 1640; CoH: 1374). R candidate(s): R.Hurt/ L.Verga/ M.McPadden/ F.Morton/ J.McKelvey/ K.Boyd/ R.Ferrin (Raised: 395/ 319/ 248/ 52/ 32/ x/ x; CoH: 211/ 181/ 206/ 8/ 442/ x/ x).
19. IL-10 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 196. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 3. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): D.Seals (Raised: 1137; CoH: 458). R candidate(s): R.Dold (Raised: 921; CoH: 382).
20. NH-02 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 195. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 17. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: September. D candidate(s): A.Kuster/ K.Swett/ J.DeJoie (Raised: 842/ 347/ 32; CoH: 563/ 1087/ 11). R candidate(s): C.Bass/ J.Horn/ R.Giuda/ L.Mannino/ A.Hemingway/ W.Sonner (Raised: 302/ 120/ 67/ 0/ x/ x; CoH: 265/ 42/ 45/ 0/ x/ x).
21. NH-01 (Shea-Porter (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 195. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 18. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: September. D candidate(s): C.Shea-Porter* (Raised: 735; CoH: 485). R candidate(s): F.Guinta/ R.Ashooh/ R.Bestani/ P.Bearce/ M.Castaldo (Raised: 572/ 213/ 161/ x/ x; CoH: 350/ 182/ 117/ x/ x).
22. ID-01 (Minnick (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 188. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 19. PVI: R+18. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 25-May. D candidate(s): W.Minnick* (Raised: 1396; CoH: 889). R candidate(s): V.Ward/ R.Labrador/ H.Brown/ M.Chadwick/ A.Salzberg (Raised: 518/ 159/ x/ x/ x; CoH: 290/ 84/ x/ x/ x).
23. PA-07 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 187. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 20. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): B.Lentz (Raised: 792; CoH: 600). R candidate(s): P.Meehan (Raised: 1197; CoH: 897).
24. WA-03 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 184. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 21. PVI: E. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: August. D candidate(s): D.Heck/ C.Pridemore/ C.Crist (Raised: 570/ 83/ 7; CoH: 532/ 51/ 4). R candidate(s): J.Herrera/ D.Castillo/ D.Hedrick/ C.Boyd (Raised: 197/ 163/ 9/ x; CoH: 140/ 49/ 1/ x).
25. FL-24 (Kosmas (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 182. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 22. PVI: R+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): S.Kosmas*/ P.Partyka (Raised: 1360/ 31; CoH: 1038/ 6). R candidate(s): C.Miller/ K.Diebel/ S.Adams/ G.Garcia/ D.Long (Raised: 341/ 333/ 287/ 36/ 1; CoH: 315/ 221/ 168/ 1/ -1).
26. MI-01 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 180. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 23. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): M.Gillard/ J.Sheltrown (Raised: x/ x; CoH: x/ x). R candidate(s): J.Allen/ D.Benishek/ L.Goldthorpe/ D.Hooper/ T.Stillings (Raised: x/ 173/ x/ x/ x; CoH: x/ 145/ x/ x/ x).
27. MI-07 (Schauer (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 180. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 24. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): M.Schauer* (Raised: 1818; CoH: 1440). R candidate(s): T.Walberg/ B.Rooney/ M.Carlson/ M.Stahly/ G.Merle (Raised: 555/ 541/ 41/ 3/ x; CoH: 370/ 443/ 29/ 0/ x).
28. NV-03 (Titus (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 180. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 25. PVI: D+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): D.Titus* (Raised: 1246; CoH: 902). R candidate(s): J.Heck/ E.Bridges/ J.Beard/ S.Leutwyler/ S.Nohrden (Raised: 353/ 45/ x/ x/ x; CoH: 257/ -9/ x/ x/ x).
29. WV-01 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 177. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 26. PVI: R+9. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): M.Oliverio (Raised: 320; CoH: 70). R candidate(s): D.McKinley (Raised: 454; CoH: 201).
30. FL-08 (Grayson (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 176. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 27. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): A.Grayson* (Raised: 3179; CoH: 1530). R candidate(s): D.Webster/ W.O'Donoghue/ K.Kelly/ W.Long/ P.Sullivan/ D.Fanelli/ R.Bieling (Raised: x/ 355/ 133/ 99/ 32/ 27/ x; CoH: x/ 309/ 125/ 14/ 9/ 1/ x).
31. AL-02 (Bright (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 173. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 28. PVI: R+16. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): B.Bright* (Raised: 928; CoH: 658). R candidate(s): M.Roby/ R.Barber/ S.Bell/ J.McKinney (Raised: 420/ 59/ 21/ x; CoH: 223/ 26/ 17/ x).
32. NY-24 (Arcuri (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 165. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 29. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): M.Arcuri* (Raised: 912; CoH: 493). R candidate(s): R.Hanna/ L.Bell (Raised: 394/ x; CoH: 358/ x).
33. IL-14 (Foster (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 165. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 30. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): B.Foster* (Raised: 1811; CoH: 1269). R candidate(s): R.Hultgren (Raised: 469; CoH: 108).
34. ND-AL (Pomeroy (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 157. Net rating: Tossup. Party Pickup Rank: 31. PVI: R+10. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): E.Pomeroy* (Raised: 1562; CoH: 1644). R candidate(s): R.Berg (Raised: 476; CoH: 344).
35. IN-09 (Hill (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 150. Net rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 32. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): B.Hill* (Raised: 1146; CoH: 896). R candidate(s): T.Young (Raised: 473; CoH: 152).
36. AR-01 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 135. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 33. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary Runoff: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): C.Causey/ T.Woolridge (Raised: 356/ 316; CoH: 98/ 171). R candidate(s): R.Crawford (Raised: 317; CoH: 183).
37. WI-07 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 135. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 34. PVI: D+2. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): None yet declared. R candidate(s): S.Duffy/ D.Mielke (Raised: 506/ 432; CoH: 309/ 4).
38. MA-10 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 135. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 35. PVI: D+5. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): B.Keating/ R.O'Leary (Raised: 123/ x; CoH: 121/ x). R candidate(s): J.Perry/ J.Malone/ R.Kasperowicz (Raised: 156/ 98/ 10; CoH: 135/ 77/ 1).
39. PA-11 (Kanjorski (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 135. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 36. PVI: D+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): P.Kanjorski* (Raised: 1180; CoH: 952). R candidate(s): L.Barletta (Raised: 356; CoH: 126).
40. SC-05 (Spratt (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 127. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 37. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): J.Spratt* (Raised: 609; CoH: 824). R candidate(s): M.Mulvaney (Raised: 262; CoH: 207).
41. TX-17 (Edwards (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 38. PVI: R+18. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): C.Edwards* (Raised: 2003; CoH: 1764). R candidate(s): B.Flores (Raised: 847; CoH: 60).
42. IA-03 (Boswell (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 39. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): B.Boswell* (Raised: 750; CoH: 578). R candidate(s): J.Gibbons/ B.Zaun/ D.Funk/ M.Rees/ P.Bertroche/ S.Batcher/ J.Welch (Raised: 369/ 83/ 71/ 66/ 6/ x/ x; CoH: 265/ 29/ 16/ 37/ 0/ x/ x).
43. NY-23 (Owens (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 40. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): B.Owens* (Raised: 1833; CoH: 383). R candidate(s): D.Hoffman/ M.Doheny (Raised: 1978/ 1312; CoH: 263/ 813).
44. OH-16 (Boccieri (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 41. PVI: R+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): J.Boccieri* (Raised: 1100; CoH: 882). R candidate(s): J.Renacci (Raised: 659; CoH: 151).
45. CA-03 (Lungren (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 4. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): A.Bera (Raised: 1257; CoH: 977). R candidate(s): D.Lungren* (Raised: 953; CoH: 650).
46. AZ-05 (Mitchell (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 42. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: 26-May. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): H.Mitchell* (Raised: 1067; CoH: 901). R candidate(s): D.Schweikert/ J.Ward/ E.Wnuck/ C.Salvino/ S.Bitter-Smith/ M.Spinks/ L.Gentry/ J.Smith (Raised: 508/ 501/ 220/ 190/ 94/ 7/ 5/ x; CoH: 398/ 366/ 101/ 110/ 56/ 0/ 7/ x).
47. PA-12 (Critz (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 43. PVI: E. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): M.Critz* (Raised: 748; CoH: 73). R candidate(s): T.Burns (Raised: 1076; CoH: 308).
48. OH-18 (Space (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 44. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): Z.Space* (Raised: 1616; CoH: 1322). R candidate(s): B.Gibbs (Raised: 308; CoH: 96).
49. AZ-08 (Giffords (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 45. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: 26-May. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): G.Giffords* (Raised: 1683; CoH: 1958). R candidate(s): J.Kelly/ B.Miller/ V.Goss/ T.Carlson (Raised: 367/ 140/ 9/ 2; CoH: 206/ 47/ 0/ 0).
50. NJ-03 (Adler (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 120. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 46. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): J.Adler*/ B.Bender (Raised: 2035/ x; CoH: 1670/ x). R candidate(s): J.Runyan/ J.Murphy (Raised: 151/ 6; CoH: 138/ 3).
51. FL-25 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 5. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): J.Garcia/ L.Meurice (Raised: x/ x; CoH: x/ x). R candidate(s): D.Rivera/ P.Crespo/ M.Cancio (Raised: 703/ 43/ x; CoH: 698/ 36/ x).
52. NY-19 (Hall (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 47. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): J.Hall* (Raised: 855; CoH: 553). R candidate(s): N.Hayworth/ D.McFadden/ N.DiCarlo/ T.DeChiaro/ J.MacEnroe (Raised: 918/ 110/ 9/ x/ x; CoH: 659/ 84/ 2/ x/ x).
53. CA-11 (McNerney (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 48. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): J.McNerney* (Raised: 1338; CoH: 994). R candidate(s): D.Harmer/ B.Goehring/ E.Emken/ A.Amador (Raised: 1406/ 1338/ 506/ 176; CoH: 327/ 437/ 253/ 82).
54. WA-08 (Reichert (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 6. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: August. D candidate(s): S.Del Bene/ T.Cramer (Raised: 1275/ 46; CoH: 839/ 2). R candidate(s): D.Reichert*/ E.Huber (Raised: 1333/ x; CoH: 716/ x).
55. MO-04 (Skelton (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 49. PVI: R+14. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): I.Skelton*/ L.Steinman (Raised: 1538/ x; CoH: 1232/ x). R candidate(s): V.Hartzler/ B.Stouffer/ B.Riley/ J.Scholz/ A.Madden/ 5 others (Raised: 397/ 391/ 29/ 16/ 15/ x; CoH: 296/ 271/ 0/ 1/ 0/ x).
56. PA-03 (Dahlkemper (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 50. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): K.Dahlkemper* (Raised: 1211; CoH: 792). R candidate(s): G.Kelly (Raised: 247; CoH: 37).
57. NM-01 (Heinrich (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 51. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 1-Jun. D candidate(s): M.Heinrich* (Raised: 1430; CoH: 1045). R candidate(s): J.Barela (Raised: 526; CoH: 392).
58. PA-15 (Dent (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 7. PVI: D+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): J.Callahan (Raised: 1133; CoH: 816). R candidate(s): C.Dent* (Raised: 1433; CoH: 874).
59. PA-08 (P. Murphy (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 52. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): P.Murphy* (Raised: 2144; CoH: 1339). R candidate(s): M.Fitzpatrick (Raised: 574; CoH: 409).
60. PA-10 (Carney (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 53. PVI: R+8. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): C.Carney* (Raised: 966; CoH: 686). R candidate(s): T.Marino (Raised: 148; CoH: 56).
61. NY-01 (T. Bishop (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 105. Net rating: Lean D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 54. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): T.Bishop* (Raised: 1276; CoH: 1243). R candidate(s): R.Altschuler/ C.Cox/ G.Demos/ G.Berntsen (Raised: 2074/ 739/ 427/ 57; CoH: 1510/ 615/ 304/ 30).
62. NC-08 (Kissell (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Net rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 55. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary Runoff: 22-Jun. D candidate(s): L.Kissell* (Raised: 604; CoH: 298). R candidate(s): T.D'Annunzio/ H.Johnson (Raised: 1066/ 311; CoH: 135/ 160).
63. IL-11 (Halvorson (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Net rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 56. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): D.Halvorson* (Raised: 1671; CoH: 1250). R candidate(s): A.Kinzinger (Raised: 747; CoH: 299).
64. VA-09 (Boucher (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Net rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 57. PVI: R+10. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): R.Boucher* (Raised: 1282; CoH: 1924). R candidate(s): M.Griffith/ D.Moore/ A.Light/ J.Ring (Raised: 143/ 41/ 33/ 5; CoH: 110/ 35/ 21/ 0).
65. CO-03 (Salazar (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Net rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 58. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): J.Salazar* (Raised: 982; CoH: 1099). R candidate(s): S.Tipton/ B.McConnell (Raised: 251/ 44; CoH: 191/ 18).
66. AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Net rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 59. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: 26-May. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): A.Kirkpatrick* (Raised: 1151; CoH: 793). R candidate(s): P.Gosar/ R.Bowers/ B.Beauchamp/ S.Mehta/ J.Jensen/ J.Jaraczewski (Raised: 286/ 110/ 82/ 57/ 6/ x; CoH: 169/ 32/ 38/ 55/ 0/ x).
67. WI-08 (Kagen (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Net rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 60. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): S.Kagen* (Raised: 1004; CoH: 720). R candidate(s): R.Ribble/ M.Trager/ R.Roth/ T.McCormick/ M.Savard/ A.Williams/ K.Thomas (Raised: 244/ 151/ 108/ 46/ 41/ x/ x; CoH: 119/ 127/ 78/ 18/ 6/ x/ x).
68. PA-06 (Gerlach (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 8. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): M.Trivedi (Raised: 443; CoH: 151). R candidate(s): J.Gerlach* (Raised: 941; CoH: 296).
69. VA-11 (Connolly (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 61. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): G.Connolly* (Raised: 1350; CoH: 1037). R candidate(s): K.Fimian/ P.Herrity/ P.Miller/ K.Riesenberg (Raised: 842/ 278/ 12/ x; CoH: 612/ 195/ 0/ x).
70. FL-22 (Klein (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 62. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): R.Klein*/ P.Renneisen (Raised: 1860/ 3; CoH: 2655/ 2). R candidate(s): A.West/ D.Brady (Raised: 2066/ x; CoH: 1122/ x).
71. OH-13 (Sutton (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 63. PVI: D+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): B.Sutton* (Raised: 527; CoH: 304). R candidate(s): T.Ganley (Raised: 4028; CoH: 2069).
72. PA-04 (Altmire (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 64. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): J.Altmire* (Raised: 1635; CoH: 405). R candidate(s): K.Rothfus (Raised: 279; CoH: 157).
73. FL-02 (Boyd (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 65. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): A.Boyd*/ A.Lawson (Raised: 1273/ 149; CoH: 1518/ 52). R candidate(s): W.Southerland/ B.Olschner/ D.Scholl/ E.Hendry/ R.McNeil (Raised: 208/ 37/ 25/ 23/ x; CoH: 157/ 27/ 22/ 10/ x).
74. NY-13 (McMahon (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 66. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): M.McMahon* (Raised: 1490; CoH: 1160). R candidate(s): M.Grimm/ M.Allegretti/ V.Fossella (Raised: 497/ 415/ x; CoH: 451/ 244/ x).
75. IN-02 (Donnelly (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 75. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 67. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): J.Donnelly* (Raised: 955; CoH: 849). R candidate(s): J.Walorski (Raised: 305; CoH: 153).
76. OH-12 (Tiberi (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 9. PVI: E. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): P.Brooks (Raised: 685; CoH: 497). R candidate(s): P.Tiberi* (Raised: 1628; CoH: 1541).
77. CT-05 (C. Murphy (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 68. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: August. D candidate(s): C.Murphy* (Raised: 1641; CoH: 1193). R candidate(s): M.Greenberg/ J.Bernier/ S.Caliguri/ K.Westbie/ D.Carter/ B.Evans (Raised: 962/ 426/ 398/ 51/ 22/ 8; CoH: 442/ 245/ 204/ 24/ 0/ 2).
78. CT-04 (Himes (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 69. PVI: D+5. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: August. D candidate(s): J.Himes* (Raised: 2160; CoH: 1590). R candidate(s): T.Herrmann/ D.Debicella/ R.Russo/ R.Merkle/ E.Torres/ W.Gregory (Raised: 571/ 519/ 94/ 54/ 47/ 19; CoH: 496/ 436/ 25/ 38/ 3/ 8).
79. FL-12 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 10. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): L.Edwards/ D.Tudor (Raised: 245/ 6; CoH: 106/ 2). R candidate(s): D.Ross/ J.Lindsey (Raised: 621/ 0; CoH: 364/ 0).
80. NE-02 (Terry (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 11. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): T.White (Raised: 555; CoH: 473). R candidate(s): L.Terry* (Raised: 1030; CoH: 619).
81. CA-45 (Bono Mack (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 12. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): S.Pougnet (Raised: 868; CoH: 618). R candidate(s): M.Bono-Mack*/ C.Thibodeau (Raised: 1330/ 20; CoH: 1075/ 2).
82. OR-05 (Schrader (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 70. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): K.Schrader* (Raised: 971; CoH: 729). R candidate(s): S.Bruun (Raised: 303; CoH: 109).
83. TX-23 (Rodriguez (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 71. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): C.Rodriguez* (Raised: 979; CoH: 603). R candidate(s): F.Canseco (Raised: 258; CoH: 29).
84. PA-17 (Holden (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 72. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): T.Holden* (Raised: 725; CoH: 855). R candidate(s): D.Argall (Raised: 144; CoH: 71).
85. NY-20 (S. Murphy (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 73. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): S.Murphy* (Raised: 3731; CoH: 1090). R candidate(s): C.Gibson (Raised: 109; CoH: 92).
86. AZ-03 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 14. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: 26-May. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): J.Hulburd (Raised: 491; CoH: 331). R candidate(s): B.Quayle/ V.Parker/ J.Waring/ S.Crump/ E.Winkler/ P.Gorman/ B.Branch (Raised: 559/ 231/ 145/ 67/ 48/ 37/ x; CoH: 503/ 179/ 115/ 45/ 41/ 23/ x).
87. MN-06 (Bachmann (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 15. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: 1-Jun. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): T.Clark/ M.Reed (Raised: 1116/ 779; CoH: 601/ 435). R candidate(s): M.Bachmann*/ C.Johnston (Raised: 2348/ x; CoH: 1533/ x).
88. IN-03 (VACANT (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 16. PVI: R+14. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): T.Hayhurst (Raised: 309; CoH: 233). R candidate(s): None declared.
89. SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 74. PVI: R+9. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): S.Herseth Sandlin* (Raised: 702; CoH: 436). R candidate(s): R.Curd/ K.Noem/ C.Nelson (Raised: 321/ 109/ 91; CoH: 186/ 92/ 44).
90. KY-06 (Chandler (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 75. PVI: R+9. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): B.Chandler* (Raised: 750; CoH: 1688). R candidate(s): A.Barr (Raised: 429; CoH: 216).
91. CA-44 (Calvert (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 16. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): B.Hedrick (Raised: 264; CoH: 115). R candidate(s): K.Calvert*/ C.Riggs (Raised: 1136/ 15; CoH: 702/ 3).
92. WI-03 (Kind (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 76. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: 7/. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): R.Kind* (Raised: 843; CoH: 1222). R candidate(s): D.Kapanke/ B.Evers (Raised: 337/ x; CoH: 213/ x).
93. CA-47 (Lo. Sanchez (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 77. PVI: D+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): Lo.Sanchez* (Raised: 981; CoH: 1077). R candidate(s): V.Tran/ T.Nguyen/ K.Smith (Raised: 556/ 0/ x; CoH: 312/ 0/ x).
94. AL-05 (Griffith (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 17. PVI: R+11. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): S.Raby/ T.Shepard/ M.Howie/ D.Maker (Raised: 187/ 140/ 56/ 0; CoH: 186/ 132/ 37/ 0). R candidate(s): P.Griffith*/ L.Phiillip/ M.Brooks (Raised: 1212/ 614/ 255; CoH: 412/ 71/ 214).
95. NC-11 (Shuler (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 78. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): H.Shuler* (Raised: 691; CoH: 1293). R candidate(s): J.Miller (Raised: 129; CoH: 26).
96. NY-25 (Maffei (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 79. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: July. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): D.Maffei* (Raised: 1729; CoH: 1143). R candidate(s): A.Buerkle/ D.Gay/ M.Paolini (Raised: 116/ x/ x; CoH: 102/ x/ x).
97. GA-08 (Marshall (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 80. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 20-Jul. D candidate(s): J.Marshall* (Raised: 655; CoH: 850). R candidate(s): A.Scott/ K.DeLoach/ D.Vann (Raised: x/ 9/ 0; CoH: x/ 1/ 0).
98. MN-01 (Walz (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 81. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: 1-Jun. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): T.Walz* (Raised: 1021; CoH: 596). R candidate(s): R.Demmer/ A.Quist/ J.Hagedorn/ J.Engstrand/ F.McKinzie (Raised: 72/ 57/ 23/ 7/ x; CoH: 19/ 18/ 1/ 5/ x).
99. GA-12 (Barrow (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 82. PVI: D+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 20-Jul. D candidate(s): J.Barrow*/ R.Thomas (Raised: 1141/ 21; CoH: 825/ 4). R candidate(s): L.Smith/ J.Seaver/ M.Horner/ R.McKinney (Raised: 39/ 21/ x/ x; CoH: 28/ 4/ x/ x).
100. OH-02 (Schmidt (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Net rating: Likely R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 18. PVI: R+13. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): S.Yalamanchili (Raised: 65; CoH: 44). R candidate(s): J.Schmidt* (Raised: 612; CoH: 225).
101. KS-04 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Net rating: Likely/Solid R Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 19. PVI: R+12. Filing Deadline: 10-Jun. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): R.Goyle/ R.Tillman (Raised: 957/ x; CoH: 817/ x). R candidate(s): W.Hartman/ J.Schodorf/ J.Anderson/ M.Pompeo (Raised: 343/ 37/ 34/ x; CoH: 35/ 17/ 4/ x).
102. RI-01 (OPEN (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Net rating: Likely/Solid D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 83. PVI: D+14. Filing Deadline: 6/. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): D.Ciccilline/ W.Lynch/ J.Brien (Raised: 725/ 230/ x; CoH: 713/ 210/ x). R candidate(s): J.Loughlin (Raised: 344; CoH: 188).
103. TN-04 (Davis (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Net rating: Likely/Solid D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 84. PVI: R+12. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 5-Aug. D candidate(s): L.Davis* (Raised: 599; CoH: 359). R candidate(s): S.DesJarlais/ J.Bailey/ K.Greenough/ R.Harwell/ D.Strong (Raised: 270/ 204/ 23/ x/ x; CoH: 143/ 163/ 2/ x/ x).
104. MI-09 (Peters (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Net rating: Likely/Solid D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 85. PVI: D+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): G.Peters* (Raised: 1962; CoH: 1701). R candidate(s): A.Raczkowski/ P.Welday/ A.Janek/ R.Kuhn (Raised: 454/ 420/ x/ x; CoH: 140/ 265/ x/ x).
105. KY-03 (Yarmuth (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Net rating: Likely/Solid D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 86. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): J.Yarmuth* (Raised: 846; CoH: 550). R candidate(s): T.Lally (Raised: 109; CoH: 26).
106. IL-08 (Bean (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Net rating: Likely/Solid D Hold. Party Pickup Rank: 87. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): M.Bean* (Raised: 1328; CoH: 1027). R candidate(s): J.Walsh (Raised: 210; CoH: 46).
107. MI-03 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 20. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): P.Miles/ P.Mayhue (Raised: 107/ x; CoH: 107/ x). R candidate(s): J.Amash/ S.Heacock/ C.Hardiman/ R.Overbeek/ L.Johnson (Raised: 116/ 88/ 54/ 3/ x; CoH: 66/ 88/ 53/ 0/ x).
108. CO-07 (Perlmutter (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 88. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): E.Perlmutter* (Raised: 1216; CoH: 1251). R candidate(s): R.Frazier/ L.Sias/ J.Lakey/ M.Deming/ M.Sheely (Raised: 668/ 110/ 5/ 1/ x; CoH: 379/ 78/ 1/ 0/ x).
109. CA-18 (Cardoza (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 89. PVI: D+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): D.Cardoza* (Raised: 639; CoH: 525). R candidate(s): M.Berryhill (Raised: 396; CoH: 244).
110. CA-50 (Bilbray (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 21. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): F.Busby/ T.Emblem (Raised: 345/ 135; CoH: 162/ 9). R candidate(s): B.Bilbray* (Raised: 711; CoH: 493).
111. OR-01 (Wu (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 90. PVI: D+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): D.Wu* (Raised: 690; CoH: 488). R candidate(s): R.Cornilles (Raised: 405; CoH: 200).
112. SC-02 (J. Wilson (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 22. PVI: R+9. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): R.Miller/ P.Black (Raised: 2252; CoH: 1729). R candidate(s): J.Wilson* (Raised: 3731; CoH: 2120).
113. NJ-12 (Holt (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 91. PVI: D+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): R.Holt* (Raised: 649; CoH: 747). R candidate(s): S.Sipprelle/ D.Corsi (Raised: 589/ x; CoH: 452/ x).
114. IA-02 (Loebsack (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 92. PVI: D+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): D.Loebsack* (Raised: 474; CoH: 426). R candidate(s): R.Gettemy/ S.Rathje/ M.Miller-Meeks/ C.Reed (Raised: 129/ 101/ 92/ 9; CoH: 121/ 56/ 76/ 11).
115. MO-03 (Carnahan (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 93. PVI: D+8. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 3-Aug. D candidate(s): R.Carnahan*/ D.Arnold/ E.Crim/ M.Dedic (Raised: 857/ 0/ x/ x; CoH: 528/ 0/ x/ x). R candidate(s): E.Martin/ J.Tucker/ R.Wallace (Raised: 582/ x/ x; CoH: 479/ x/ x).
116. OH-06 (C. Wilson (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 94. PVI: R+2. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): C.Wilson* (Raised: 468; CoH: 514). R candidate(s): B.Johnson (Raised: 143; CoH: 62).
117. WA-02 (Larsen (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 95. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: August. D candidate(s): R.Larsen*/ L.Kalb/ D.McGinness (Raised: 737/ 8/ x; CoH: 677/ 4/ x). R candidate(s): J.Koster/ J.Carmack (Raised: 168/ 0; CoH: 100/ 0).
118. CA-20 (Costa (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 96. PVI: D+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): J.Costa*/ S.Haze (Raised: 600/ 13; CoH: 363/ 8). R candidate(s): J.Vidak/ R.Lake/ S.Quintanar (Raised: 109/ 42/ 13; CoH: 73/ 8/ 3).
119. NJ-06 (Pallone (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 97. PVI: D+9. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): F.Pallone*/ M.Falzon (Raised: 1401/ x; CoH: 3955/ x). R candidate(s): D.Gooch/ A.Little (Raised: 272/ 3; CoH: 242/ 2).
120. WV-03 (Rahall (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 98. PVI: R+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): N.Rahall* (Raised: 654; CoH: 1555). R candidate(s): E.Maynard (Raised: 52; CoH: 36).
121. AR-04 (Ross (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 99. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): M.Ross* (Raised: 1338; CoH: 1105). R candidate(s): B.Rankin (Raised: 80; CoH: 43).
122. AK-AL (Young (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 23. PVI: R+11. Filing Deadline: 1-Jun. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): H.Crawford (Raised: 104; CoH: 55). R candidate(s): D.Young*/ S.Fisher/ A.Halcro (Raised: 578/ 82/ x; CoH: 272/ 53/ x).
123. IA-01 (Braley (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 100. PVI: D+5. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): B.Braley* (Raised: 866; CoH: 624). R candidate(s): B.Lange/ M.LaCoste/ J.Budde/ W.Johnson (Raised: 34/ 6/ 5/ x; CoH: 28/ 5/ 2/ x).
124. FL-16 (Rooney (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 24. PVI: R+4. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): J.Horn/ E.Tautiva (Raised: x/ x; CoH: ). R candidate(s): T.Rooney* (Raised: 935; CoH: 580).
125. FL-13 (Buchanan (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 25. PVI: R+6. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): J.Golden/ R.Eaton (Raised: 66/ 0; CoH: 5 0). R candidate(s): V.Buchanan*/ D.Baldauf (Raised: 1587/ 0; CoH: 1066/ 0).
126. FL-10 (Young (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 26. PVI: E. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): C.Justice (Raised: 256; CoH: 61). R candidate(s): B.Young* (Raised: 299; CoH: 465).
127. FL-05 (OPEN (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 27. PVI: R+8. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 24-Aug. D candidate(s): J.Piccillo (Raised: 54; CoH: 16). R candidate(s): R.Nugent/ J.Sager (Raised: x/ 10; CoH: x/ 3).
128. MS-04 (Taylor (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 101. PVI: R+19. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 1-Jun. D candidate(s): G.Taylor* (Raised: 280; CoH: 223). R candidate(s): S.Palazzo/ J.Tegerdine (Raised: 125/ 31; CoH: 121/ 4).
129. GA-02 (S. Bishop (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 102. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 20-Jul. D candidate(s): S.Bishop* (Raised: 551; CoH: 386). R candidate(s): M.Keown/ L.Ferrell/ R.Allen (Raised: 246/ 3/ x; CoH: 194/ 0/ x).
130. MN-03 (Paulsen (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 28. PVI: R+1. Filing Deadline: 1-Jun. Primary: 10-Aug. D candidate(s): M.Hackett/ J.Meffert (Raised: 389/ 117; CoH: 268/ 33). R candidate(s): E.Paulsen* (Raised: 1513; CoH: 1145).
131. IL-17 (Hare (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 103. PVI: D+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): P.Hare* (Raised: 663; CoH: 745). R candidate(s): B.Schilling (Raised: 162; CoH: 110).
132. IL-13 (Biggert (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 29. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): S.Harper (Raised: 301; CoH: 175). R candidate(s): J.Biggert* (Raised: 971; CoH: 734).
133. CA-26 (Dreier (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 30. PVI: R+3. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): R.Warner (Raised: 192; CoH: 155). R candidate(s): D.Dreier*/ M.Butler (Raised: 602/ x; CoH: 1095/ x).
134. MA-06 (Tierney (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 104. PVI: D+8. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): J.Tierney* (Raised: 369; CoH: 1457). R candidate(s): W.Hudak/ D.Sukoff/ B.McCarthy (Raised: 348/ 37/ 27; CoH: 88/ 0/ 27).
135. VA-01 (Wittman (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 31. PVI: R+8. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: June. D candidate(s): K.Ball/ S.Robinson (Raised: 521/ 296; CoH: 134/ 103). R candidate(s): R.Wittman*/ C.Crabill (Raised: 712/ x; CoH: 452/ x).
136. CA-48 (Campbell (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 32. PVI: R+7. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): B.Krom (Raised: 374; CoH: 180). R candidate(s): J.Campbell* (Raised: 1052; CoH: 1075).
137. MA-05 (Tsongas (D)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 105. PVI: D+7. Filing Deadline: June. Primary: 14-Sep. D candidate(s): N.Tsongas* (Raised: 863; CoH: 381). R candidate(s): J.Golnik/ S.Meas/ W.Bunker (Raised: 177/ 43/ x; CoH: 133/ -7/ x).
138. MT-AL (Rehberg (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 33. PVI: R+8. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: 8-Jun. D candidate(s): D.McDonald/ T.Gernant/ S.Rankin/ M.Gopher (Raised: 139/ 103/ 9/ x; CoH: 16/ 24/ 3/ x). R candidate(s): D.Rehberg* (Raised: 810; CoH: 731).
139. TX-32 (Sessions (R)). Total Vulnerability Score: 0. Net rating: . Party Pickup Rank: 34. PVI: R+8. Filing Deadline: Past. Primary: Past. D candidate(s): G.Raggio (Raised: 252; CoH: 147). R candidate(s): P.Sessions* (Raised: 1187; CoH: 979).