The now long-running media meme of a coming landslide for Republicans a la 1994 is hard to ignore. Not because it's accurate or even well thought out, but because the media so loves doom and gloom predictions that the animal they have become knows nothing else to do this fall but scream blood and murder from the headlines.
A few things give me hope amidst the gloom. One, the Fourth Estate in this country is at least on life support, but more likely died years ago, was cremated, and its ashes sprinkled on Rupert Murdoch's oatmeal. So I don't lend much credence to their brand of infotainment anymore. Two, almost all of the predictions of electoral slaughter come November continually cite nationwide generic polls showing an enthusiasm gap, and less support for Obama than two years ago. Politics is a game of districts and states, and a look at the district-by-district numbers has things looking much better than you might think. Lastly, the Republican Party is sprinting, not even to the right, but to the batshit crazy extreme off the end of the spectrum. Don't believe me? More below the fold...
Dreading November? Polling got you down? Take heart, fellow leftists. Things aren't as bad as they seem, and in the long run, things are looking pretty rosy for the Democrats becoming the dominant party of the next generation. Even longtime conservative columnist Kathleen Parker - the one who argued we should cut Dr. Laura some slack for her prolific and offensive use of the N-word on air - calls out the crazies in her own party, and if you've lost Kathleen, my God, you have indeed proceeded full tilt down the rabbit hole.
The media needs a cage fight to stay in the infotainment ratings chase, so they'll scream the sky is falling and the tsunami is coming right up until the electoral results come in and they look stupid - again. I mean, c'mon, these are the people that stand in the middle of hurricanes on camera so that we can, in fact, see that it is windy outside. Why do you give them so much credit? I was walking through an airport this summer past a TV monitor of Larry King on CNN, giving an interview of ..... wait for it..... Snoop Dogg. The ticker below read "Snoop on God, pot and Obama". And it was a rerun. Cable news is a virtual wasteland. The networks and newspapers aren't far behind, so do yourself a favor and start doing some of your own research. It's the information age, and the numbers are at your fingertips, and from more reliable sources than the mainstream you've been reading and listening to.
Go to the Congressional Quarterly's map of House and Senate races if you don't believe me. They take polling from around the country, put it together, and assess whether a seat is "Lean Republican" "Likely Democrat" etc. The numbers at this point in the cycle - just as liberals are starting to pay attention - are much better than you might think. Are we going to lose seats? Sure, most midterm elections result in that for the party in the White House. Lose control of both houses? No. One house? No.
As of right now, CQ Politics predicts the Democrats will have 217 seats if the polls don't change from now, while the Republicans will have 180. This leave 38 seats in the "toss up" category. So, mathematically, the Republicans can take back the House, if they win every single toss up House race. Good luck on that one, but I wouldn't bet my house on it even if I were a rabid teabagger.
In the Senate, chances are a little stronger that Democrats hold on to their majority, even better now that sometime witch Christine O'Donnell has hijacked Delaware Republicans. 49 seats now are solid, likely or lean Democratic, while Republicans have 43 seats, and 8 in the toss up category. Once again, they would have to literally run the table to take back a slim majority in the Senate. Think Barbara Boxer, Harry Reid and Patty Murray will all lose their races? Unlikely. Murray's up by nine in my state right now. That gives us 52 seats as a conservative total estimate.
If these numbers hold (and six weeks is a long time, I know) then you will be able to hear the audible thud of a crashing media meme and tea party hopes the morning after the election. I'm planning a house party.
And there's more. Republicans are strongest among senior citizens, as are the teabaggers. This generation is aging, of course, and just by nature you cannot call them the wave of the future. This is the last generation to grow up in segregated America. The last of the hardcore reactionaries and John Birchers. If that is where Republicans are pinning their long term hopes, they are screwed.
The Republican Party, along with Teabaggers, are aggressively alienating Latinos, the fastest growing population in the country. They can't have both the reactionaries and the minority vote, so they chose the reactionaries. Even if it pays off in November, they just screwed themselves again long term (caveat: Democrats have to more aggressively respect and court this group of voters. We can't take them for granted or assume they will always back us by default).
I'm sure many of you are, just like me, sitting back and watching the Republican civil war with glee, cheerfully munching on popcorn and working hard for your own Democratic candidates this fall, confident in the hope that, with our efforts and funding, things are indeed much, much better than they seem.
Shout out to Democrat Jay Clough, candidate in the 4th District of Washington State, and the best, most hard working candidate we've had in a long, long time. He's going after longtime windbag/empty suit/Tom Delay Waterboy Doc Hastings. What say give him some love? Donate ten bucks here