In a new strategic document, James Carville and Stan Greenberg (for Democracy Corps) argue that their polling shows not just that the GOP wave has crested (very nicely diaried already on this website), but that Democrats could be gearing up for a surge in the last weeks of the midterm campaign.
This is very similar to what happened in 1998, when the 2nd term blues, combined with the Lewinsky scandal, looked as if it might rock Democrats up until the last two weeks of the campaign. Then, things turned around, and the Democrats actually held steady in the Senate and gained 5 seats in the house.
You can see more here: http://politicalwire.com/...
This study focuses alot on the trees in the forest - if you will - the polling that shows moderates, independents - particularly women are responsive to messages that focus on changing Washington for the better and pushing the "made in America" meme, and that attack Republican candidates for being captive of corporate and special interests.
They also point out that the "don't go back to Bush" message performs on a weaker level than the other two messages (above) in their polling.
The interesting part of this - and the part Carville and Greenberg don't go into - is the fact that the nationalized face of the Tea Party and its obvious extremism play right into these two messages. What could be more of a special interest than extreme ideology? How can you go to Washington caring about change for the better when you advocate removing the minimum wage?
Another interesting fact: There has been months of talk of a Republican congress - so much so that you can sort of look at them as the incumbents. And it doesn't say much that their front runners - in many cases - are stuck below 50% in opinion polls, one after the other. We have candidates like that too, but in a "wave" election, they should be putting Democrats away, and they haven't done that yet.
This is a remarkable (and extremely lucky) moment of convergence for Democrats. We really were doomed to get slaughtered this year. We still might. But as current polling and this study shows, there is now a real opportunity to seize the momentum and blunt the Republican enthusiasm.
I think the recommendations in this study are worth serious consideration, don't you?