Firstly, I'd like to establish:
- Minorities (30%), uninsured (29%), youth (25%), poor (36%), renters (43%) & those living in the 'battleground states' (22-25%) are more 'wireless only' than home-owners, insured, Whites, females, & seniors.
- Robo-dialers used by polls/robocalls cannot be used to dial cell lines.
Secondly, I'd like to highlight shakey logic. To wit, one may think that negative polling results are not worthy of concern, because after all it's voting and not polling that determines who wins.
Thirdly, I'd like to relate how communication does in fact affect voter enthusiasm and turnout. To wit, we refute the logic of 'votes correct polls' with a simple observation:
Minorities, young & the poor are the most likely groups to become disheartened by negative prospects and simply not vote at all.
So the Democratic ground game is in fact the silver lining to bad polling - but only with a massive GOTV effort. Canvassing not only reaches people more persuasively, but also targets the very base that is most in danger of being effected by the negative 'poll' news.
But the 'bad polling' effect could be even deeper.
Communication gap = enthusiasm gap?
Was it really Dem politicians that created the enthusiasm gap by not recognizing the communication gap?
Regarding public policy & political strategy, we must remember that politicians are not above making drastic mistakes. After all, the Centers for Disease Control began doing the Wireless Substitution Survey because they felt the landline-wireless shift was beginning to affect the data that underlies public health policy.
The CDC felt that the number of uninsured, binge-drinking, smokers was being underestimated - in other words, the CDC couldn't reach significant parts of the 'weary masses' that make up part of the Dem base.
Poor poll communicating shift's Dem strategy and creates new 'reality'?
So remember all the negative polling about health care reform, the stimulus, and other Democratic 'successes'? Remember how these polling stories caused nearly the entire Democratic party to run away from these 'successes'?
Perhaps the politicians should have remembered that the people who were most affected by Dem initiatives are the people that are most difficult to reach by landline-centric political communications. Perhaps there was support there...perhaps there still is. The numbers are certainly large enough to suggest that the whole story wasn't being told/reported.
Action Item - Communicate past the polls
Is there time for an about face? Is there time to fashion a message that says 'Our legislation not perfect, but you've heard from the Republicans for months now that 'No' is their only answer'.
Being a technology type, I do have an idea for how the 'communication gap' can be bridged...but I'm certainly not going to air it for any lurking political types to find. Could it be done in 7 days? Ummm [consulting coding skill list]...yep.
Links
Wireless Substituion: Centers for Disease Control survey (original source)
Uninsured & minority wireless only numbers
Minorities use wireless internet more than Whites