Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com/ which you should check out for more election analysis:
As always, California's ballot is filled to the brim with propositions. Like 2008 with Proposition 8, we have some very controversial propositions on the ballot. Those propositions include Prop 19 and Prop 23 which I will get into later. Throughout this post, I will give a little blurb on each proposition and why I either support or oppose it. I am going to skip the introduction here and skip right to the suggestions which is something I do not usually do. Here I go:
Proposition 19: if passed, Prop 19 will allow people 21+ to grow up to 25 sq. ft of marijuana and possess small amounts of it. State and local Governments will now have the ability to regulate and tax marijuana usage.
Will it pass? Polls are showing it sinking but many voters have already cast their ballots. I am guessing it will fail by a couple of points.
Do I support it? This is a tough one for me. I have learned about how recreational smoking of marijuana kills brain cells and how the fumes are not healthy either. There is also the argument about Marijuana smokers driving behind the wheel (although smoking while driving will be illegal) which can cause problems like drunk driving. If Prop 19 is passed though, it will reduce the power of the drug cartels. Also, there is the belief that people should have the right to smoke marijuana. Overall, I am reluctantly suggesting YES on 19 because I think adults should make their own decisions about marijuana, although I strongly encourage everyone not to smoke it. Therefore, I suggest YES on 19.
Prop 20: Gives the power of redistricting House seats to a 14 member commission of random people who do not necessarily know about California's Congressional districts.
Will it pass? There have not been many polls on this race and Prop 11 which had an active yes campaign barely won in 2008. Therefore, it is a TOSSUP/LEAN PASS
Do I support it? Unlike Prop 19, I am more clear cut on this issue. The Yes on 20 people are saying that it will create fair districts while Prop 20 says "the districts must be segregated by similar living standards"-No on Prop 20 argument. Therefore, you would have a rich people only districts, middle class people only districts and poor people only districts. Yes on 20 says the proposition prevents backroom deals but the real reason Republicans like it is that they can protect their incumbents. Therefore, I suggest NO! on Prop 20 because the Republicans are the ones looking for the deal.
Prop 21: Helps revive California's state parks which are in ruins by using money from an $18 tax to help repair the park and create jobs by hiring rangers and docents.
Will it pass? There have been absolutely no polls on this race. The Yes side should get support from liberal areas as well as rural areas that depend on state parks for tourism. The No side should get support from more urban areas with few environmentalists. Overall, this is a TOSSUP/LEAN PASS
Do I support it? The No on Prop 21 campaign argues this is the return of the car tax. This time though, the money has a clear purpose and the purpose is to help the state parks. The money is $18 which amounts to about 35 cents per week and then five cents per day. This is less than the money most people put in parking meters each day. Also, the $18 allows people to use the state parks for free so frequent users will actually SAVE money. Also, I strongly support supplying our beaches with lifeguards (rip currents, shark attacks etc.) as well as promoting more environmental awareness programs. Did I mention Prop 21 will create jobs? Therefore, I am a strong YES!!!!!
Prop 22: It prevents the state from taking money from local Government and transportation funds.
Will it pass? This one also has a dearth of polls but most indications suggest Toss Up/Lean FAIL
Do I support it? Unlike Prop 21, this one is less cut and dry for me. The Yes side is arguing it will prevent the state from taking money from local services. Therefore, the libraries and the public safety departments will still have money. The No side though argues that it will take more money from public schools. This is a really tough one for me and I probably will have to go YES on 22 because it helps protect libraries and firefighters.
Prop 23: Suspends the landmark Global Warming bill AB 32 until California's unemployment goes under 5.5% which has not happened in many years.
Will it pass? The proposition has strong opposition as well as proponents. Due to the large number of Californian environmentalists, I am thinking LEAN FAIL.
Do I support it? The Yes side says that eliminating AB 32 will create jobs. The proponents of 23 are big Texas oil companies such as Valero who think that eliminating AB 32 will save jobs. The truth is though that 500,000 will be lost if Prop 23 passes and California will no longer lead the way in green technology. Already, there have been big investments into green jobs because of the prospect of creating them. Also, the oil companies will no longer have to follow laws for cleaner energy so they can keep spewing dirty fuels. Therefore, I am a big NO!!! on Prop 23 because I support a clean planet, not dirty oil companies.
Prop 24: Repeals recent legislation that gave 1.7 billion in tax breaks to large corporations.
Will it pass? Prop 24 has the backing of the powerful California Teachers Association while Prop 24 is opposed by California Taxpayers Association. It looks like a PURE TOSSUP
Do I support it? This is another tough one. The No side is arguing that if the corporations receive these tax breaks, they will be able to create and save jobs. They also argue that the old tax rules prevent competition. the Yes side argues that the tax breaks only benefit the top 2% of businesses and therefore are harmful to small businesses. Also, they argue that the state will make more budget cuts to other programs while they are not even keeping the taxes for corporations static. Therefore, I suggest a Yes vote on 24 but not strongly.
Prop 25: Prevents Minority Rule in the Legislature by allowing the Legislature to Pass a Budget with a simple majority, not a 2/3 vote.
Will it pass? Most polls show it leading in the low double digits and many voters are tired of the gridlock. Therefore, I see a LIKELY PASS.
Do I support it? The No on 25 side somehow believes passing 25 will reduce voter rights. Anyway, the organizations against 25 include one I am not a fan of, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. For Yes on 25, it will eliminate the gridlock in the legislature. A budget for this year was not passed until early October and with 25 passing, it can be passed more quickly. Prop 25 will make California like every other state except for Arkansas and Rhode Island in the way they pass their budget. Therefore, I suggest YES on 25!
Prop 26: A Constitutional Amendment that requires that state and local fees must be approved by 2/3 of the vote, including fees to help the environment.
Will it pass? This is similar to Prop 23 where the oil companies support it and environmental groups such as the Sierra Club and the American Lung Association oppose it. Therefore, I see a TOSS UP/TILT FAIL
Do I support it? The Yes on Prop 26 people put up a strong rebuttal, listing many environmental fees they will still have to pay. The truth is that the 2/3 approval also goes to fees to clean up after oil spills, fees on tobacco companies with effects of smoking and fees for programs against underage drinking. Also, the 2/3 vote makes the minority more powerful than the majority. The 2/3 vote for the budget caused all the gridlock in the Legislature that Prop 25 wants to eliminate. Do we need more gridlock with the 2/3 requirement for fees now? Therefore, I suggest NO on Prop 26.
Prop 27: Eliminates the Commission of People who do not necessarily know anything about redistricting the state legislature.
Will it pass? Prop 27 is basically a repeal of Prop 11 which created an independent commission of people who may know nothing about redistricting to be in control of redistricting the state legislature. This will probably go through party lines so I see a TOSS UP
Do I support it? The No side argues that without the commission, there will be districts unfair to one party. Actually, without the commission, the districts are fair to both parties with only one seat switching parties since the most recent plan. Also, the real reason many people dislike Prop 27 is that if Prop 27 fails, it will produce a map more favorable to the Republicans and if Democrats do not get the 2/3 majority in the legislature, there will still be gridlock in the legislature on taxes. Do we need more gridlock? Did I mention repealing Prop 27 wastes millions of taxpayer dollars? Do we need to waste more money? Therefore, I suggest YES on Prop 27.