In the 2010 General Elections, held on October 3, all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (lower house of Congress) and 54 of 81 seats in the Senate were at stake. All 1035 seats in the 27 state legislatures were also up for election.
Of the current deputies, 55% were re-elected. In the Senate, 26 Senators sought re-election, of which 10 were defeated. This means that out of the 54 seats at stake, only 16 will remain unchanged, or less than 30%. Of the 27 Senators not facing election this year (their terms finish in 2015), four were elected governors of their respective states, and will leave the Senate in January (one more sitting Senator, Marconi Perillo, is facing a run-off for governor). This means that a total of 42(or 43) out of 81 Senators will be new in 2011.
These extensive makeovers of both houses of Congress have benefited Lula's PT and its allies, especially in the Senate. A detailed breakdown by coalition and party is below the fold.
For the tables below, I have attempted to group the various political parties into their current alliances/coalitions. This is not as easy as it sounds because parties are not monolithic and can sometimes shift allegiance out of political expedience. These tables show the current partisan composition of Congress and what it will look like when the new term begins in February 2011. These statistics are based on the official election results published by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), and are subject to change depending on the outcome of the ruling on the constitutionality of the Clean Slate Law. This law has banned several candidates from elected office who nonetheless appeared on the ballot. The TSE considers votes cast for these candidates as "null" (invalid). If the law is declared unconstitutional, these candidates' votes will be counted after all, and some results will be affected.
The Workers' Party, during Lula's eight years in office, has assembled a broad center-left majority. In the tables below, I refer to this as the "governing coalition." Within the governing coalition, I have identified what are ordinarily considered the "left wing" and the "centrist wing," in order to show that this is not a monolithic leftist group. Under these headings, I have listed the individual parties. Separately, I have listed the "opposition coalition" and the "independent parties" which do not fit themselves into either coalition.
Notes:
* = The PMDB is the largest party in the centrist wing of the governing coalition, however, there is also a minority "opposition wing" among PMDB members who side with PSDB. I have not attempted to separate this group out numerically.
** = The PTB has been nominally a member of the centrist wing of the governing coalition, but chose to switch sides and support Serra's run for the Presidency. The President of the party, Roberto Jefferson, recently revealed that he did not vote for Serra in the election and the party is now divided about its support during the run-off. What position they will take in the next Congress is unknown, but I have decided to group them as part of the opposition in these tables.
# = The PP is sometimes considered part of the centrist wing of the governing coalition, but it is not formally part of the alliance to elect Dilma Rousseff, and is not ideologically bound to either side. I have decided to list them as an independent party in these tables.
The Senate
The Senate created the most difficulties for Lula during his Presidency. Although the governing coalition is listed here with 42 seats, not all PMDB members were reliable votes, and the opposition block (PSDB and DEM) was very strong.
In the elections, PT added 4 seats and the PMDB added 3, but the most dramatic change was that of the Democrats, who plummeting from 15 seats down to 6, a loss of 9. Some very big names in Lula's opposition went down to defeat: Tasso Jereissati, Arthur Virgílio, Heráclito Fortes, Marco Maciel, Efraim Morais, and Mão Santa, among others. With the possible inclusion of PP (or even PTB) in the governing coalition, at least 50 reliable votes can now be found.
GOVERNING COALITION | 42 | 49 | +7 |
Left wing | 19 | 23 | +4 |
Workers' Party (PT) | 10 | 14 | +4 |
Democratic Labor Party (PDT) | 5 | 4 | -1 |
Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) | 3 | 3 | nc |
Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) | 1 | 2 | +1 |
Centrist wing | 23 | 26 | +3 |
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB)* | 17 | 20 | +3 |
Republic Party (PR) | 3 | 4 | +1 |
Brazilian Republican Party (PRB) | 2 | 1 | -1 |
Christian Social Party (PSC) | 1 | 1 | nc |
|
OPPOSITION COALITION | 36 | 25 | -11 |
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) | 12 | 11 | -1 |
Democrats (DEM) | 15 | 6 | -9 |
Brazilian Labor Party (PTB)** | 8 | 6 | -2 |
Popular Socialist Party (PPS) | 1 | 1 | nc |
National Mobilization Party (PMN) | 0 | 1 | +1 |
|
Independent Parties |
Progressive Party (PP)# | 1 | 5 | +4 |
Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) | 1 | 2 | +1 |
Green Party (PV) | 1 | 0 | -1 |
The Chamber of Deputies
In the Chamber of Deputies, the governing coalition also increased its share, but not by as much as they had hoped to. Some forecasts showed PT with the potential to pick up over 100 seats, but they were only able to reach 88 (still, an increase of 9). The coalition as a whole picked up 14 seats, but it is interesting to notice where they were picked up. All of the parties in the "left wing" of the coalition gained seats, while the PMDB lost 11 and can no longer claim the largest single party block.
The opposition again lost seats, and again this was most brutally felt by the far right Democrats, who dropped from 56 down to only 43 seats (in 1998 they held 105).
GOVERNING COALITION | 297 | 311 | +14 |
Left wing | 141 | 165 | +24 |
Workers' Party (PT) | 79 | 88 | +9 |
Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) | 27 | 34 | +7 |
Democratic Labor Party (PDT) | 23 | 28 | +5 |
Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) | 12 | 15 | +3 |
Centrist wing | 156 | 146 | -10 |
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB)* | 90 | 79 | -11 |
Republic Party (PR) | 41 | 41 | nc |
Christian Social Party (PSC) | 16 | 17 | +1 |
Brazilian Republican Party (PRB) | 7 | 8 | +1 |
Christian Labor Party (PTC) | 2 | 1 | -1 |
|
OPPOSITION COALITION | 156 | 136 | -20 |
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) | 59 | 53 | -6 |
Democrats (DEM) | 56 | 43 | -13 |
Brazilian Labor Party (PTB)** | 22 | 21 | -1 |
Popular Socialist Party (PPS) | 15 | 12 | -3 |
National Mobilization Party (PMN) | 3 | 4 | +1 |
Labor Party of Brazil (PTdoB) | 1 | 3 | +2 |
|
Independent Parties |
Progressive Party (PP)# | 40 | 41 | +1 |
Green Party (PV) | 14 | 15 | +1 |
Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) | 3 | 3 | nc |
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS) | 3 | 2 | -1 |
Progressive Republican Party (PRP) | 0 | 2 | +2 |
Brazilian Labor Renewal Party (PRTB) | 0 | 2 | +2 |
Liberal Social Party (PSL) | 0 | 1 | +1 |
State Legislatures
These state legislature numbers are only for comparison, since the actual "governing" and "opposition" coalitions will vary by state. In some states, of course, the PSDB/DEM are the government and the PT/PSB are the opposition.
The overall trends, however, mirror those at the federal level. Both wings of the "governing coalition" gained seats (with the most gain concentrated on the left), while the opposition lost. A number of smaller independent parties also gained seats, opening up even more diversity in what is already a considerably crowded political environment.
GOVERNING COALITION | 518 | 591 | +73 |
Left wing | 262 | 316 | +54 |
Workers' Party (PT) | 126 | 149 | +23 |
Democratic Labor Party (PDT) | 64 | 76 | +12 |
Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) | 60 | 73 | +13 |
Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) | 12 | 18 | +6 |
Centrist wing | 256 | 275 | +19 |
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB)* | 164 | 147 | -17 |
Republic Party (PR) | 51 | 53 | +2 |
Christian Social Party (PSC) | 27 | 35 | +8 |
Brazilian Republican Party (PRB) | 3 | 18 | +15 |
National Labor Party (PTN) | 6 | 14 | +8 |
Christian Labor Party (PTC) | 5 | 8 | +3 |
|
OPPOSITION COALITION | 420 | 324 | -96 |
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) | 152 | 123 | -29 |
Democrats (DEM) | 119 | 76 | -43 |
Brazilian Labor Party (PTB)** | 58 | 47 | -11 |
Popular Socialist Party (PPS) | 42 | 36 | -6 |
National Mobilization Party (PMN) | 32 | 22 | -10 |
Labor Party of Brazil (PTdoB) | 17 | 20 | +3 |
|
Independent Parties |
Progressive Party (PP)# | 53 | 48 | -5 |
Green Party (PV) | 34 | 37 | +3 |
Liberal Social Party (PSL) | 8 | 17 | +9 |
Progressive Republican Party (PRP) | 8 | 13 | +5 |
Brazilian Labor Renewal Party (PRTB) | 8 | 10 | +2 |
Christian Social Democratic Party (PSDC) | 6 | 8 | +2 |
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS) | 7 | 7 | nc |
Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) | 3 | 4 | +1 |
Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) | 1 | 0 | -1 |