Over the last week I have written two diaries emphasising just how close most of the House Races are, and how little we really know about them. Since those two diaries I have done more analysis. The findings are stunning.
I should emphasize how few House polls there really are. Unlike the Senate, where each competitive race has been polled over 20 times since mid-September, most Hose seats have been polled only once. The bottom line is the results in the House are very unclear at this point
The table below summarizes the House base on the rankings by Charlie Cook.
Note the huge undecided.
Even this chart tends to understand the volatility here. This chart summarizes the House races by candidate %. Outside of the safe seats virtually no one in any of the House races where public polling has been done is over 50.
Given this volatility, it makes sense to ask what the effect would be of a two point swing in ether direction. This table contains a projection of the results tomorrow. This is based on using the % of seats the Democrats are winning in each category used by Cook to project the results. Right now the projection is for the GOP to pick-up 54 seats. It is important to remember, though, that these projections are based on jello. As I just showed, the undecided in these races is huge, and few candidates in the close races are over 50. The bottom line is the House is very much in play. A 2 point shift would be enough to put the House on a hair trigger.
This is another chart that breaks down the races, this time by the size of the lead. Note that there are 40 seats within 5 points!!!
In the end, all I can say is GOTV.
Update: In the comments think blue asked about the partisan breakdown of the Cook ratings. Here they are: